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Because the more programmers you have the more software you need to write. As a tool vendor, our market is exploding. This was a market that was "problematic" j

Because the more programmers you have the more software you need to write. As a tool vendor, our market is exploding. This was a market that was "problematic" just 10 years ago. Methodologies and scale are growing which means more developers. Markets are expanding where "everything" is becoming software driven. Generally, give me more programmers and I'll give you more things that need programming. Our world has barely begun automation.

curtisblaine 5y ago
Not necessarily: maybe the faster you go, the sooner AIs will replace developers or low-code tools will get rid of juniors. Or maybe the market will physiologically contract because we though it would expand more than it will in reality. In all these three cases, and probably more that I can't imagine at the moment, the zero sum game would be real and would hit us hard.
- Godel_unicode 5y ago
  People have been making these exact arguments for almost as long as professional programmer has been a thing you could be. In an effort to overcome our subconscious loss aversion with data, we should back test these hypotheses. If you do that, you will see that every time someone has suggested a specific thing was going to result in fewer programmer jobs they have been quite wrong. Now we need to weigh the very real negative of screwing over other people who would like to also earn a decent income against the total lack of evidence that this will be bad for existing programmers. Do what your conscience tells you, I'm going to try and get other people to program.
  - theknock23 5y ago
  - curtisblaine 5y ago
    How can I possibly have data regarding an hypothetical scenario? I was just affirming that many people could be skeptical of this "all aboard" imperative considering that bubbles might burst and the first ones to get hurt would probably be those who were convinced to get to code because "there's a lot of money to be made". Who knows, maybe it's even exactly this kind of "gold rush" mentality the mechanism that creates bubbles in the first place. That said, why is it unethical not actively trying to persuade other people to program? There's a considerable spectrum between "hostile gatekeeping" and "evangelism". What about not discouraging nor encouraging anyone? How many doctors do you find "trying to get other people to medical profession"?
    - Godel_unicode 5y ago
      If you didn't understand my point about back-testing I'm not sure how much more clearly to put it but to say that you are very wrong in thinking this is a bubble. As was everyone else who has been saying it for the last roughly 30 years. It is unethical, as I said in the post you originally replied to, to pull the ladder up after you. That is very clearly what was being suggested. I maintain that we should each do as our conscience guides. In answer to the question about doctors, tons of them. I personally know several who go to school career days and job fairs and evangelize the medical profession. There are also many who volunteer with charities targeting underrepresented minority evangelism specifically. I have worked with many such charities in a limited capacity to help them make their technology work better. In my discussions with them, many doctors share my feeling that our positions are a great blessing and that being in this position gives us an obligation to help as many others as we can. Finally, I'll say that in my opinion letting yourself off the hook because "nobody else does it either" is a pretty thin reed. If you don't want to help, that's your choice. I hope if you need help someday, others are more generous.
  - Irongirl1 5y ago
    I am so non-techie it hurts, but I've come to realize that the only way I'm going to get my projects (100+) off the ground cost-effectively is if I do it <at least the basics> myself. How do you recommend I do this without using most low-code tools (I don't trust the premise) or tearing my hair out???? Any advice would be appreciated-

curtisblaine 5y ago

Not necessarily: maybe the faster you go, the sooner AIs will replace developers or low-code tools will get rid of juniors. Or maybe the market will physiologically contract because we though it would expand more than it will in reality. In all these three cases, and probably more that I can't imagine at the moment, the zero sum game would be real and would hit us hard.

Godel_unicode 5y ago
People have been making these exact arguments for almost as long as professional programmer has been a thing you could be. In an effort to overcome our subconscious loss aversion with data, we should back test these hypotheses. If you do that, you will see that every time someone has suggested a specific thing was going to result in fewer programmer jobs they have been quite wrong. Now we need to weigh the very real negative of screwing over other people who would like to also earn a decent income against the total lack of evidence that this will be bad for existing programmers. Do what your conscience tells you, I'm going to try and get other people to program.
- theknock23 5y ago
- curtisblaine 5y ago
  How can I possibly have data regarding an hypothetical scenario? I was just affirming that many people could be skeptical of this "all aboard" imperative considering that bubbles might burst and the first ones to get hurt would probably be those who were convinced to get to code because "there's a lot of money to be made". Who knows, maybe it's even exactly this kind of "gold rush" mentality the mechanism that creates bubbles in the first place. That said, why is it unethical not actively trying to persuade other people to program? There's a considerable spectrum between "hostile gatekeeping" and "evangelism". What about not discouraging nor encouraging anyone? How many doctors do you find "trying to get other people to medical profession"?
  - Godel_unicode 5y ago
    If you didn't understand my point about back-testing I'm not sure how much more clearly to put it but to say that you are very wrong in thinking this is a bubble. As was everyone else who has been saying it for the last roughly 30 years. It is unethical, as I said in the post you originally replied to, to pull the ladder up after you. That is very clearly what was being suggested. I maintain that we should each do as our conscience guides. In answer to the question about doctors, tons of them. I personally know several who go to school career days and job fairs and evangelize the medical profession. There are also many who volunteer with charities targeting underrepresented minority evangelism specifically. I have worked with many such charities in a limited capacity to help them make their technology work better. In my discussions with them, many doctors share my feeling that our positions are a great blessing and that being in this position gives us an obligation to help as many others as we can. Finally, I'll say that in my opinion letting yourself off the hook because "nobody else does it either" is a pretty thin reed. If you don't want to help, that's your choice. I hope if you need help someday, others are more generous.
- Irongirl1 5y ago
  I am so non-techie it hurts, but I've come to realize that the only way I'm going to get my projects (100+) off the ground cost-effectively is if I do it <at least the basics> myself. How do you recommend I do this without using most low-code tools (I don't trust the premise) or tearing my hair out???? Any advice would be appreciated-