> If I have inflation fears I think this is actually unlikely in the 10-year horizon because everyone is so paranoid about it. Right now mostly we're seeing s

> If I have inflation fears I think this is actually unlikely in the 10-year horizon because everyone is so paranoid about it. Right now mostly we're seeing supply-chain shocks, not durable inflation. There is some data to back up the great resignation that there are fewer workers now and they have greater negotiation power. But we're a ways off from a general wage-price spiral, and I suspect that we're more likely to see aggressive policy action to kill that off, even if it tanks the economy. Short term though I don't think this is the top of the bubble. Realistically the Fed isn't going to do that much over the next year or two, they move slowly. This correction will probably make them scared to act too quickly and they'll wait to see if it causes a reversion to stagnant wage growth. What I would be most worried about right now is that over the next 2 years the wage growth seems to stick. That will cause the Fed to really panic about inflation and act like Volker to pop the bubble, which should unwind in a deflationary depression. The alternative is that the Fed does nothing and watches a 1970s-style wage-price spiral evolve (which I think would be the actual best outcome since it would be debt relief and would reduce wealth inequality). I don't think the Fed will do nothing though very clearly given how literally everyone is terrified of inflation and wants the Fed to tighten. Austerity is probably coming.