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I lived there at the time, and it may be foolhardy to argue with an Assistant Professor of Economics, but it seems that the author is willfully ignoring the dis

I lived there at the time, and it may be foolhardy to argue with an Assistant Professor of Economics, but it seems that the author is willfully ignoring the distinction between 'Unfinished' and 'Empty' houses. The Central Statistics Office (which often has difficulty counting things) found around 230,000 empty houses at that time. So while he may have a point that some of the 'Unfinished' ones never made it past the plans, there were also completed and empty housing estates, some of which were bulldozed. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-07-19/ireland-bulldozes-ghost-estate-in-life-after-real-estate-bubble https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-07-19/ireland-b... Also, the author claims that he couldn't find empty estates near Dublin, but if he went as far as Celbridge he would have found some. Futhermore he seems to jump back and forth between rural Leitrim and Dublin to make his point, depending on what suits his argument. Rural areas had huge ghost estates. https://www.housing.eolasmagazine.ie/cso-publishes-breakdown-of-census-2016-housing-themes/ https://www.housing.eolasmagazine.ie/cso-publishes-breakdown... You can see a comment below from mandmandam below with a personal take too. The point about there being a credit bubble stands, and the author leaves out the commercial side of the bubble, purely focusing on residential. The wikipedia article is superior to this one, normally I would have more time and respect for Ronan Lyons than this linked instance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble And as to there being a myth about the Irish property bubble refuting the laws of supply and demand, I don't think anyone has made this point in my earshot or viewing. This third myth is itself a myth of the author's own creation.

ploika 5y ago
He covered the empty estates issue well enough I thought: by the mid-2010s they were mostly fully constructed and occupied, including in rural areas. That chimes with my experience, having lived in a few different parts of the country (urban and rural) over that time period. It was rare for completed housing estate to be bulldozed.
- eliasmacpherson 5y ago
  You will find that you are wrong about the occupation rates in rural areas, it's still at around 180000 unoccupied dwellings at the last count. Misleading not to make the distinction between Unfinished and Empty just to make a point, leaving out half the story in numbers terms. The article would have been more accurate if the titles of the 'Myths' were about Dublin and not Ireland. I don't have figures for the amount of bulldozing that went on, but it was enough to make headlines for the years between 2008 to 2012, the bottom of the market.
  - biorach 5y ago
    > around 180000 unoccupied dwellings at the last count. I spend a lot of time in rural Ireland (ok, in the eastern, wealthier, part). This figure doesn't really reflect what I see on the ground, which is scarcity of supply - you got sources for that figure, preferably with a breakdown by region?
    - eliasmacpherson 5y ago
      It is rare for people in Ireland to consider the eastern part, Leinster, rural, even while parts of it might be. Connaught is where the unoccupied dwellings are most common. In any case here's the link I was looking for earlier, which should source the breakdown you are looking for. https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/vac/ https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp...
      - biorach 5y ago
        Trying to tell a resident of rural Leinster what I should and shouldn't consider rural isn't going to get you very far. To get back to your point... > there were also completed and empty housing estates.... Rural areas had huge ghost estates That's not accurate - an ambitious housing estate in a rural area would be usually a few tens of houses. Ten to fifteen would be much more usual. "Huge" is not the word. > You will find that you are wrong about the occupation rates in rural areas, it's still at around 180000 unoccupied dwellings at the last count. Misleading not to make the distinction between Unfinished and Empty just to make a point, leaving out half the story in numbers terms. The CSO figures don't allow us to see what proportion of the unoccupied buildings are ghost estates. Table 4.3 gives a breakdown but it's not particularly helpful. From my own experience I really don't think that they are a particularly large proportion any more.

ploika 5y ago

He covered the empty estates issue well enough I thought: by the mid-2010s they were mostly fully constructed and occupied, including in rural areas. That chimes with my experience, having lived in a few different parts of the country (urban and rural) over that time period. It was rare for completed housing estate to be bulldozed.

eliasmacpherson 5y ago
You will find that you are wrong about the occupation rates in rural areas, it's still at around 180000 unoccupied dwellings at the last count. Misleading not to make the distinction between Unfinished and Empty just to make a point, leaving out half the story in numbers terms. The article would have been more accurate if the titles of the 'Myths' were about Dublin and not Ireland. I don't have figures for the amount of bulldozing that went on, but it was enough to make headlines for the years between 2008 to 2012, the bottom of the market.
- biorach 5y ago
  > around 180000 unoccupied dwellings at the last count. I spend a lot of time in rural Ireland (ok, in the eastern, wealthier, part). This figure doesn't really reflect what I see on the ground, which is scarcity of supply - you got sources for that figure, preferably with a breakdown by region?
  - eliasmacpherson 5y ago
    It is rare for people in Ireland to consider the eastern part, Leinster, rural, even while parts of it might be. Connaught is where the unoccupied dwellings are most common. In any case here's the link I was looking for earlier, which should source the breakdown you are looking for. https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/vac/ https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp...
    - biorach 5y ago
      Trying to tell a resident of rural Leinster what I should and shouldn't consider rural isn't going to get you very far. To get back to your point... > there were also completed and empty housing estates.... Rural areas had huge ghost estates That's not accurate - an ambitious housing estate in a rural area would be usually a few tens of houses. Ten to fifteen would be much more usual. "Huge" is not the word. > You will find that you are wrong about the occupation rates in rural areas, it's still at around 180000 unoccupied dwellings at the last count. Misleading not to make the distinction between Unfinished and Empty just to make a point, leaving out half the story in numbers terms. The CSO figures don't allow us to see what proportion of the unoccupied buildings are ghost estates. Table 4.3 gives a breakdown but it's not particularly helpful. From my own experience I really don't think that they are a particularly large proportion any more.