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Anecdotally I sold all of my non retirement stocks and am sitting on cash. With climate change, an aging and contracting workforce, and asset bubbles due to th

Anecdotally I sold all of my non retirement stocks and am sitting on cash. With climate change, an aging and contracting workforce, and asset bubbles due to the recent wealth transfers, I don't think we'll see these kind of stock market highs again without serious inflation. I'll ride it out until there's more information on the Fed's plan to stem inflation, maybe wait for the midterms to shake out too.

ferdowsi 5y ago
This is the short-term panic-selling mentality my older relatives engaged in after 2008, and now they can't retire.
- candiddevmike 5y ago
  Unlike 2008, there are multiple existential threats against the current status quo of the market--labor unrests and progressive movements, rising inflation that must be reduced, a fed committing to raising interest rates, antitrust busting that could/should tear apart the top S&P companies, and uber drivers giving folks stock advice. Smells like a crash to me.
i67vw3 5y ago
Extra fiat/cash can be put into gold/silver.
- candiddevmike 5y ago
  Any recommendations? Physical gold/silver?
  - moistly 5y ago
    It’d have to be physical, wouldn’t it? Otherwise it’s only a promise to give you the gold and a lot of pressure to accept some sort of exchange currency instead.
throw0101a 5y ago
> Anecdotally I sold all of my non retirement stocks and am sitting on cash. This is a bad idea. Even if you could predict when the dip occurs—which is impossible—it's still better to be in the market: * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averaging/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-co... While you may miss the bad days, you will almost certainly miss the good days—and those are key to getting good long-term returns: > If you missed just the 25 strongest days in the stock market since 1990, you might as well have been in five year treasury notes. * https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/02/08/miss-the-worst-days-miss-the-best-days/ https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/02/08/miss-the-worst-... > Looking at data going back to 1930, the firm found that if an investor sat out the S&P 500′s 10 best days per decade, total returns would be significantly lower than the return for investors who waited it out. * https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/this-chart-shows-why-investors-should-never-try-to-time-the-stock-market.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/this-chart-shows-why-investo... > J.P. Morgan Asset Management's 2019 Retirement Guide[1] shows the impact that pulling out of the market has on a portfolio. Looking back over the 20-year period from Jan. 1, 1999, to Dec. 31, 2018, if you missed the top 10 best days in the stock market, your overall return was cut in half. That's a significant difference for only 10 days over two decades! * https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/11/what-happens-when-you-miss-the-best-days-in-the-st.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/11/what-happens-when-...
- moistly 5y ago
  If I have cash, I can purchase other lucrative opportunities. Land. Businesses. Rental housing. Luxury properties. Real assets, income-generating assets. Just a thought.
- moistly 5y ago
  Another thought: apparently meme-stock people are finding out that they don’t actually own their stock. Asking their broker to transfer their stock to the DRS, their trading representative has said “No.” It turns out these retail investors do not effectively own the stock. They own an entry in the broker’s book. The broker controls the stock. They decide what to do do with it. Maybe they want to lend it to a friend for a few days. If you ask for it today, they’ll get it to you in a week. Promise. Definitely by corporate year-end! Could be interesting times if there’s a high retail demand to have stocks directly registered to the DRS. Who really owns the stocks?

ferdowsi 5y ago

This is the short-term panic-selling mentality my older relatives engaged in after 2008, and now they can't retire.

candiddevmike 5y ago
Unlike 2008, there are multiple existential threats against the current status quo of the market--labor unrests and progressive movements, rising inflation that must be reduced, a fed committing to raising interest rates, antitrust busting that could/should tear apart the top S&P companies, and uber drivers giving folks stock advice. Smells like a crash to me.

i67vw3 5y ago

Extra fiat/cash can be put into gold/silver.

candiddevmike 5y ago
Any recommendations? Physical gold/silver?
- moistly 5y ago
  It’d have to be physical, wouldn’t it? Otherwise it’s only a promise to give you the gold and a lot of pressure to accept some sort of exchange currency instead.

throw0101a 5y ago

> Anecdotally I sold all of my non retirement stocks and am sitting on cash. This is a bad idea. Even if you could predict when the dip occurs—which is impossible—it's still better to be in the market: * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averaging/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-co... While you may miss the bad days, you will almost certainly miss the good days—and those are key to getting good long-term returns: > If you missed just the 25 strongest days in the stock market since 1990, you might as well have been in five year treasury notes. * https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/02/08/miss-the-worst-days-miss-the-best-days/ https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/02/08/miss-the-worst-... > Looking at data going back to 1930, the firm found that if an investor sat out the S&P 500′s 10 best days per decade, total returns would be significantly lower than the return for investors who waited it out. * https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/this-chart-shows-why-investors-should-never-try-to-time-the-stock-market.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/this-chart-shows-why-investo... > J.P. Morgan Asset Management's 2019 Retirement Guide[1] shows the impact that pulling out of the market has on a portfolio. Looking back over the 20-year period from Jan. 1, 1999, to Dec. 31, 2018, if you missed the top 10 best days in the stock market, your overall return was cut in half. That's a significant difference for only 10 days over two decades! * https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/11/what-happens-when-you-miss-the-best-days-in-the-st.aspx https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/11/what-happens-when-...

moistly 5y ago
If I have cash, I can purchase other lucrative opportunities. Land. Businesses. Rental housing. Luxury properties. Real assets, income-generating assets. Just a thought.
moistly 5y ago
Another thought: apparently meme-stock people are finding out that they don’t actually own their stock. Asking their broker to transfer their stock to the DRS, their trading representative has said “No.” It turns out these retail investors do not effectively own the stock. They own an entry in the broker’s book. The broker controls the stock. They decide what to do do with it. Maybe they want to lend it to a friend for a few days. If you ask for it today, they’ll get it to you in a week. Promise. Definitely by corporate year-end! Could be interesting times if there’s a high retail demand to have stocks directly registered to the DRS. Who really owns the stocks?