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I'll believe it when I see it. Economists have predicted 10 of the last 3 crashes and all that. Seems like a total crapshoot these days.

libertine 5y ago
Haven't "things" been looking off to you? I'm not an expert, farm from it, I'm just curious and I've been following some assets classes for some years now, and I have to say that some markets have been acting crazy for quite some time. And the pattern I've noticed was the shift from a type of investment, to a gamble. For example, the collectibles market became insane, like everyone - including kids - thinking they will make a bank on Pokemon cards. Try to buy some old Nintendo games - all of a sudden everyone became retro game players? Or they are just selling stuff to each other? Or maybe a new hoard of investors thinks they can gamble and make bank on older games? Real estate market the same thing, the amount of people that became millionaires because their house got a bump of 50%+ in value... even companies were willing to pay a premium to get access to housing. Stock market has been pushing through, with lots of gamble stocks popping. Either a big portion of the people got financially educated over the past few years a lot more people are smart investors and this is all normal because it's the price people are willing to pay to play the game in the long run, and this is all solid and sustainable, or a lot of these things are just bloated.
throw0101a 5y ago
> Economists have predicted 10 of the last 3 crashes and all that. There is some irony in this statement that many people do not realize. It was the economist Paul Samuelson that came up with the original saying: > To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties.[18] * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson#Aphorisms_and_quotations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson#Aphorisms_and_q...

libertine 5y ago

Haven't "things" been looking off to you? I'm not an expert, farm from it, I'm just curious and I've been following some assets classes for some years now, and I have to say that some markets have been acting crazy for quite some time. And the pattern I've noticed was the shift from a type of investment, to a gamble. For example, the collectibles market became insane, like everyone - including kids - thinking they will make a bank on Pokemon cards. Try to buy some old Nintendo games - all of a sudden everyone became retro game players? Or they are just selling stuff to each other? Or maybe a new hoard of investors thinks they can gamble and make bank on older games? Real estate market the same thing, the amount of people that became millionaires because their house got a bump of 50%+ in value... even companies were willing to pay a premium to get access to housing. Stock market has been pushing through, with lots of gamble stocks popping. Either a big portion of the people got financially educated over the past few years a lot more people are smart investors and this is all normal because it's the price people are willing to pay to play the game in the long run, and this is all solid and sustainable, or a lot of these things are just bloated.

throw0101a 5y ago

> Economists have predicted 10 of the last 3 crashes and all that. There is some irony in this statement that many people do not realize. It was the economist Paul Samuelson that came up with the original saying: > To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties.[18] * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson#Aphorisms_and_quotations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson#Aphorisms_and_q...