4 ms·

Frankly about time given that Omicron peaks are preceding peak number of booster shots. The magical broken product we can't sue over strikes again. It's still

by rob_c 5y ago

Frankly about time given that Omicron peaks are preceding peak number of booster shots. The magical broken product we can't sue over strikes again. It's still not understood what pressures led to Omicron favouring lower lethality so I'll be curious if that's ever explained over the normal "that's what viruses do _shrug_"...

biorach 5y ago
The evolutionary pressures that can lead to some diseases becoming less lethal and more transmissible over time are actually well researched and modelled, and has happened many times. That this could happen with Covid has been quietly mentioned in scientific publications over the last 2 years
- rob_c 5y ago
  Also seeing most virological forms of research this is 'explaining after the fact' which is far from making a predictive forecast. Frankly something the WHO, SAGE and various other governments should be well aware of before even reading Report9...
- rob_c 5y ago
  The transmissible factor being genetically favoured is a no brained, but frankly given 99.9% of cases did not result in death the morbidity of covid is arguably already very low, why should it favour a decrease over developing new symptoms likely to increase transmission such as stability in different environments (there is clearly a seasonal effect in the West and the virus would be more contagious is stable in the warm there). Which leads to the question why should Omicron have become so less lethal if this is just the 4th strain with <100 mutations?
  - biorach 5y ago
    To address just one of the many many poorly thought out points you made... This is not the 4th strain. There have been an uncountable number of mutations, and many strains (omicron is not the 4th letter in the Greek alphabet - there have been other named strains that didn't spread) This is the strain that spread like wildfire because it had evolved traits that allowed it to spread faster that all the other traits. The number of mutations is not important, the effect of the mutations is all that matters. I don't think you have a good grasp of the basics of the mechanics of evolutionary selection, epidemiology or whatever. Maybe spend some time brushing up on the basics of the science before starting speculation on the why's and wherefore - stuff that appears suspicious to you now is actually a logical result of natural processes

by rob_c 5y ago

biorach 5y ago

The evolutionary pressures that can lead to some diseases becoming less lethal and more transmissible over time are actually well researched and modelled, and has happened many times. That this could happen with Covid has been quietly mentioned in scientific publications over the last 2 years

rob_c 5y ago
Also seeing most virological forms of research this is 'explaining after the fact' which is far from making a predictive forecast. Frankly something the WHO, SAGE and various other governments should be well aware of before even reading Report9...
rob_c 5y ago
The transmissible factor being genetically favoured is a no brained, but frankly given 99.9% of cases did not result in death the morbidity of covid is arguably already very low, why should it favour a decrease over developing new symptoms likely to increase transmission such as stability in different environments (there is clearly a seasonal effect in the West and the virus would be more contagious is stable in the warm there). Which leads to the question why should Omicron have become so less lethal if this is just the 4th strain with <100 mutations?
- biorach 5y ago
  To address just one of the many many poorly thought out points you made... This is not the 4th strain. There have been an uncountable number of mutations, and many strains (omicron is not the 4th letter in the Greek alphabet - there have been other named strains that didn't spread) This is the strain that spread like wildfire because it had evolved traits that allowed it to spread faster that all the other traits. The number of mutations is not important, the effect of the mutations is all that matters. I don't think you have a good grasp of the basics of the mechanics of evolutionary selection, epidemiology or whatever. Maybe spend some time brushing up on the basics of the science before starting speculation on the why's and wherefore - stuff that appears suspicious to you now is actually a logical result of natural processes