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They are expecting a spike in infections as a result, and the rules around self-isolation on positive tests and wearing masks in most contexts remain. But Irela

They are expecting a spike in infections as a result, and the rules around self-isolation on positive tests and wearing masks in most contexts remain. But Ireland has had one of the longest lockdowns in Europe, and one of the best vaccination rates. Both have paid off, but not without cost.

ptero 5y ago
It is not clear to me that low incremental death rates are due to lockdowns (or, for that matter vaccination rates). Balkans had low rates with no lockdowns (and vaccination rates of under 35% throughout last summer). I am not claiming that your statement is wrong, just that the causal relationship is not at all clear to me. It is probably much easier to show for vax rates, but lockdowns -- I have not seen a convincing proof.
- prox 5y ago
  Lockdowns seem to be very dependent on how they are enforced and culture.
- ryanbrunner 5y ago
  Canada and the U.S. might be a better comparison (particularly prior to vaccination, since the US has a notably lower vaccination rate). Canada largely had stricter lockdowns than the US and had about a third of the death rate. The populations aren't identical but fairly comparable, and the most notable differences in 2020 were degree of restrictions, along with better support for people unable to work due to COVID in Canada.
  - lambdaba 5y ago
    Canada has 3+ years higher life expectancy than the US, that implies better overall health. Also lower obesity rates (29.4% vs 36.2%). Source: https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/canada.united-states/demographics https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/canada.united-st...
  - csee 5y ago
    But they also would've had better mask compliance and vaccination rates, less obesity, and as a country they're more sparse.
    - ryanbrunner 5y ago
      A large part of the mask compliance IMO was due to having consistent mandates and messaging around masking, so it's tied into the overall approach to restrictions. Canada being sparse is a bit misleading. While yes, it's a very large country with relatively few people, 90+% of people live within 150 km of the US border, and the population density in major population centres (Toronto / Vancouver / Montreal) is comparable to US metro areas. Vaccination rates you're correct, but the lower impact of COVID was observed pre-vaccination as well. General health is a good point though, I'm sure it's a factor - I don't know if it explains such a large difference in death rate though.
      - csee 5y ago
        There is also a great deal of randomness. I'd hestitate to draw conclusions by comparing countries, there is not enough data. If we could compare different local areas that had different policies, we might be able to get somewhere. Even then, it's not easy. The locales who are happy to lockdown are probably also composed of people happy to wear a mask and happy to vaccinate. There is also an ugly reverse causality thing going on where lockdowns are a response to growing community spread, which makes it look like they don't work when maybe they actually do. It's not an easy question to answer empirically. I'm happy to do the finger in the air approach of assuming they work based on common sense. That doesn't mean that they should be implemented, which is a related but different question.
  - ptero 5y ago
    I do not see it this way. Lockdowns have significant costs (medical, mental, economic). If we implement them, it should be based on strong causal relationship to health outcomes which should be observable on most countries. I can understand a quick reaction for a week or two as we plan a strategy; maybe for a month. But two years is ridiculous. This seems to be driven by politics more than health. Which seems to be agreed to by most people in many countries who largely ignore it (except for countries like Australia and NZ, which imposed real, hard lockdowns). In the Eastern Europe in the summer where masks were required inside, most people wear them on the chin (even at the airports). And say "cannot wait when those jerks from the EU stop pushing those rules down our throats". And last but not least: I know well two people who are immunocompromised. Their care took a definite turn for the worse, because in many countries there is at the moment a single disease worth fighting and everything non-COVID becomes a distant second. Whew. That turned into a rant. Sorry!
Graffur 5y ago
"They are expecting a spike in infections as a result" Can you show where they said this? This is what will happen but I haven't heard it be stated as a official strategy.
- OliverM 5y ago
  Ireland's Chief Medical Officer has stated this in interviews with the press. e.g. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/holohan-sets-out-rationale-for-lifting-of-almost-all-covid-19-restrictions-1.4783542 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/holohan-s...

ptero 5y ago

It is not clear to me that low incremental death rates are due to lockdowns (or, for that matter vaccination rates). Balkans had low rates with no lockdowns (and vaccination rates of under 35% throughout last summer). I am not claiming that your statement is wrong, just that the causal relationship is not at all clear to me. It is probably much easier to show for vax rates, but lockdowns -- I have not seen a convincing proof.

prox 5y ago
Lockdowns seem to be very dependent on how they are enforced and culture.
ryanbrunner 5y ago
Canada and the U.S. might be a better comparison (particularly prior to vaccination, since the US has a notably lower vaccination rate). Canada largely had stricter lockdowns than the US and had about a third of the death rate. The populations aren't identical but fairly comparable, and the most notable differences in 2020 were degree of restrictions, along with better support for people unable to work due to COVID in Canada.
- lambdaba 5y ago
  Canada has 3+ years higher life expectancy than the US, that implies better overall health. Also lower obesity rates (29.4% vs 36.2%). Source: https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/canada.united-states/demographics https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/canada.united-st...
- csee 5y ago
  But they also would've had better mask compliance and vaccination rates, less obesity, and as a country they're more sparse.
  - ryanbrunner 5y ago
    A large part of the mask compliance IMO was due to having consistent mandates and messaging around masking, so it's tied into the overall approach to restrictions. Canada being sparse is a bit misleading. While yes, it's a very large country with relatively few people, 90+% of people live within 150 km of the US border, and the population density in major population centres (Toronto / Vancouver / Montreal) is comparable to US metro areas. Vaccination rates you're correct, but the lower impact of COVID was observed pre-vaccination as well. General health is a good point though, I'm sure it's a factor - I don't know if it explains such a large difference in death rate though.
    - csee 5y ago
      There is also a great deal of randomness. I'd hestitate to draw conclusions by comparing countries, there is not enough data. If we could compare different local areas that had different policies, we might be able to get somewhere. Even then, it's not easy. The locales who are happy to lockdown are probably also composed of people happy to wear a mask and happy to vaccinate. There is also an ugly reverse causality thing going on where lockdowns are a response to growing community spread, which makes it look like they don't work when maybe they actually do. It's not an easy question to answer empirically. I'm happy to do the finger in the air approach of assuming they work based on common sense. That doesn't mean that they should be implemented, which is a related but different question.
- ptero 5y ago
  I do not see it this way. Lockdowns have significant costs (medical, mental, economic). If we implement them, it should be based on strong causal relationship to health outcomes which should be observable on most countries. I can understand a quick reaction for a week or two as we plan a strategy; maybe for a month. But two years is ridiculous. This seems to be driven by politics more than health. Which seems to be agreed to by most people in many countries who largely ignore it (except for countries like Australia and NZ, which imposed real, hard lockdowns). In the Eastern Europe in the summer where masks were required inside, most people wear them on the chin (even at the airports). And say "cannot wait when those jerks from the EU stop pushing those rules down our throats". And last but not least: I know well two people who are immunocompromised. Their care took a definite turn for the worse, because in many countries there is at the moment a single disease worth fighting and everything non-COVID becomes a distant second. Whew. That turned into a rant. Sorry!

Graffur 5y ago

"They are expecting a spike in infections as a result" Can you show where they said this? This is what will happen but I haven't heard it be stated as a official strategy.

OliverM 5y ago
Ireland's Chief Medical Officer has stated this in interviews with the press. e.g. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/holohan-sets-out-rationale-for-lifting-of-almost-all-covid-19-restrictions-1.4783542 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/holohan-s...