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What are you a skeptic of, exactly? This is the model actually used by the Danish Ministry of Finance to study the effects of various policy changes. I don't th
by pdabbadabba 5y ago
What are you a skeptic of, exactly? This is the model actually used by the Danish Ministry of Finance to study the effects of various policy changes. I don't think there's any need to speculate about how much influence it will have: it apparently is already in use and guides policymaking. Other advanced economies have their own similar models used for studying and making various aspects of economic policy. I think another poster has provided a link to the model used by the NY Fed.
At a high level, I, like you, am fairly persuaded by the Hayekian point that its impossible to collect enough information or otherwise capture the necessary complexity to reliably model even a moderately complex economy with enough fidelity to allow central planning. But this is far short of that. And there does seem to be a need for general models to allow policymakers to make informed decisions. The only alternative would seem to be to make no decisions at all which a) is itself a decision and 2) does not seem to be an option that many people seriously advance.
I guess your position could be that these efforts are doomed to failure--i.e., no model will provide useful results. But that position--that no model will provide any amount of useful information, even at very low levels of granularity, is a very strong position--much stronger than Hayek's argument against planned economies--that I'd have to see some serious support for. And it certainly doesn't seem like a position that people should accept without a very convincing showing of its futility, given the significant costs of making policy decisions without even attempting to model them, or of making no policy interventions at all.