I think this over-estimates the intelligence of cloud businesses, and under-estimates the motives of paying customers. First there's the assumption that Amazon

I think this over-estimates the intelligence of cloud businesses, and under-estimates the motives of paying customers. First there's the assumption that Amazon, Microsoft, Google, "get software". This doesn't really mean anything. So you're a tech company and you know how to churn out software; so what? That doesn't mean your particular tech is better than anybody else's. Amazon alone has 70,000 engineers; they didn't snag all the good ones. If you look at their code (or try to package it for a Linux distribution), it's a hot mess. Their tech is not why they're successful. They know that software is just a tool you use to sell. These companies' major wins were for all kinds of reasons other than their technical acumen: spinning off a new business from an already-profitable one, acquiring and integrating other businesses, or keeping a moat (sorry - "platform") around a particular market or customer base. It doesn't matter if they "get software". Just look at Google Cloud; it'll probably be sunset in 2 years. Who cares if they "get software" if they suck at acquiring customers? Apple is launching their own public cloud soon, as well as a couple other small and large companies. Will they be successful? It won't be because of their technology (they're all using the same code anyway). If you want to steal customers from Amazon, you need to sell it. Paying customers don't care if you can see the future or are "internet native". They care if you can lower their costs and get them to market quicker, if you provide stellar support, if your product is more popular (more people know how to built with it/maintain it), if you make their life easier, and if your service appears more reliable. And AWS knows all this. They're a savvy salesman, a reliable contractor, and an industry standard. They know how to keep and grow their business, and it isn't by reducing what they sell or focusing on a narrow market. If you're the incumbent, you sell more integrated services and diversify your business, and keep pushing until a market implodes. Then you tourniquet that part of the business and pivot. But what they'll never do is strategically refocus on some smaller business sector if it means making less money.