5 ms·

1: People were stuck in that traffic jam for more than 24 hours 2: It is an interstate heavily used by both commuters and through drivers. The odds of being a

1: People were stuck in that traffic jam for more than 24 hours 2: It is an interstate heavily used by both commuters and through drivers. The odds of being at 100% charge, or even 90% are pretty slim. 3: After getting unstuck, you still have to get to a charging station, and how long will that take to get charged up? With gas, it is 5-10 minutes and you have 500 miles of range. With an EV, how long would you be there? This is relevant to this case as many/most of the drivers on that route are driving a few hundred miles or more. A shorter trip on that stretch would be Baltimore to Richmond, which is 130 miles. 4: The test was against a car with brand new batteries. What about batteries that are 5 years old?

bhhaskin 5y ago
Honestly I don't think EVs are the future. They are trendy right now, but are highly impractical if you have to drive a lot or are outside of a city. Besides the fact that a EV's battery pack is pretty much industrial waste after a few years time. The future is likely hydrogen hybrids. All of the benefits of an EV and traditional ICE engines with none of the draw backs.
- thehappypm 5y ago
  I think the future is EVs, but there will be a niche for EVs with on-board generators to extend the range out indefinitely. These already exist but they will look really different in the future. Maybe that fuel for the generator will be hydrogen.. but I doubt it, there’s no hydrogen infrastructure.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  This is somewhat unobservant? Tesla sells a million EVs/year (and is on track to sell two million in 2022). A variety of Chinese electric bus manufacturers, in aggregate, sell ~60k battery electric busses annually. Electrical charging infrastructure is becoming ubiquitous (electric power is everywhere, from the lowly 120V outlet to the 300kw fast DC charger at your local business), while there is so little hydrogen infra we can safely round down to zero for our purposes. Finally, at the end of a battery pack’s life, it can be recycled (Redwood Materials, started by Tesla’s ex-CTO JB Straubel already has begun ramping production of anode copper foils [1] for, wait for it, Panasonic, Tesla’s US battery cell provider). EVs have already won, having pulled ahead of combustion vehicles and hydrogen vehicles are still stuck at the starting line. [1] https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/press/an-update-on-our-anode-copper-foil-product-amp-facility https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/press/an-update-on-our-anod...
- audunw 5y ago
  An EVs battery pack will generally last as long as the car. A common warranty is 80% capacity after 8 years, and degradation generally flattens out after losing the first 10%, so 16 year minimum lifetime is a reasonable expectation, and 20+ years seems likely. There are 10 year old Leafs with the original battery on the road right now, and that's pretty much a worst case scenario for an EV battery (older battery chemistry, no cooling, and low capacity meaning users cycle often between very high and very low charge) EV battery packs are routinely reused for grid/industrial energy storage. EV battery recycling seems to becoming profitable. It's a pretty ideal scenario for recycling (high volume of identical cells). EV batteries won't be more of a waste problem than car lead acid batteries, one of the most recycled items in the world. > All of the benefits of an EV and traditional ICE engines with none of the draw backs. You won't have all the benefits of EV (low complexity, volumetrically efficient drivetrain). If you're going to have a battery big enough that you can charge at home for daily driving, you're going to get an extremely costly vehicle. Hydrogen is one battery breakthrough away from being dead for cars forever. If the cost is halved and range is doubled, the niche for hydrogen cars will be so tiny that hydrogen fueling stations will be unsustainable. Hydrogen hybrid cars is essentially a solution that kills itself. Charging will always be cheapest, so you'll want to maximize charging over hydrogen fueling. It'll incentivize the construction of home charging, street side charging and fast charging at all kinds of shops, restaurants etc. Most people will drive pure BEVs, and those that have hydrogen hybrids might fuel a handful of times a year. Every time batteries improve, the niche for the hydrogen hybrids will decrease. It's a terrible economy to build hydrogen fueling stations in. A hydrogen fueling station exploded near my home btw. I think eventually hydrogen will be completely safe. But it seems very likely that a few accidents like that will happen before then, which may kill any momentum hydrogen manages to build. Hydrogen explosions are scary, it can be heard for miles away.
huitzitziltzin 5y ago
> 1. People were stuck for more than 24 hours… The car lost 25% of its charge over 12 hours. If you want to extrapolate to 24, I don’t think it would be that hard to hazard a guess?? If you want to extrapolate to 36, 48, or any number of hours you have the information there to do so. Also - being frozen in place for 24 hours straight basically never happens to any car or driver. This is an unlikely event to worry about. If you don’t want one, don’t buy one. I on the other hand wondered about exactly this issue so I find this a very useful piece.
- beerandt 5y ago
  Interpolation is usually fine, but extrapolation should pretty much never be trusted for engineering or science. See: almost every attempt to scale up a small project.

bhhaskin 5y ago

Honestly I don't think EVs are the future. They are trendy right now, but are highly impractical if you have to drive a lot or are outside of a city. Besides the fact that a EV's battery pack is pretty much industrial waste after a few years time. The future is likely hydrogen hybrids. All of the benefits of an EV and traditional ICE engines with none of the draw backs.

thehappypm 5y ago
I think the future is EVs, but there will be a niche for EVs with on-board generators to extend the range out indefinitely. These already exist but they will look really different in the future. Maybe that fuel for the generator will be hydrogen.. but I doubt it, there’s no hydrogen infrastructure.
toomuchtodo 5y ago
This is somewhat unobservant? Tesla sells a million EVs/year (and is on track to sell two million in 2022). A variety of Chinese electric bus manufacturers, in aggregate, sell ~60k battery electric busses annually. Electrical charging infrastructure is becoming ubiquitous (electric power is everywhere, from the lowly 120V outlet to the 300kw fast DC charger at your local business), while there is so little hydrogen infra we can safely round down to zero for our purposes. Finally, at the end of a battery pack’s life, it can be recycled (Redwood Materials, started by Tesla’s ex-CTO JB Straubel already has begun ramping production of anode copper foils [1] for, wait for it, Panasonic, Tesla’s US battery cell provider). EVs have already won, having pulled ahead of combustion vehicles and hydrogen vehicles are still stuck at the starting line. [1] https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/press/an-update-on-our-anode-copper-foil-product-amp-facility https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/press/an-update-on-our-anod...
audunw 5y ago
An EVs battery pack will generally last as long as the car. A common warranty is 80% capacity after 8 years, and degradation generally flattens out after losing the first 10%, so 16 year minimum lifetime is a reasonable expectation, and 20+ years seems likely. There are 10 year old Leafs with the original battery on the road right now, and that's pretty much a worst case scenario for an EV battery (older battery chemistry, no cooling, and low capacity meaning users cycle often between very high and very low charge) EV battery packs are routinely reused for grid/industrial energy storage. EV battery recycling seems to becoming profitable. It's a pretty ideal scenario for recycling (high volume of identical cells). EV batteries won't be more of a waste problem than car lead acid batteries, one of the most recycled items in the world. > All of the benefits of an EV and traditional ICE engines with none of the draw backs. You won't have all the benefits of EV (low complexity, volumetrically efficient drivetrain). If you're going to have a battery big enough that you can charge at home for daily driving, you're going to get an extremely costly vehicle. Hydrogen is one battery breakthrough away from being dead for cars forever. If the cost is halved and range is doubled, the niche for hydrogen cars will be so tiny that hydrogen fueling stations will be unsustainable. Hydrogen hybrid cars is essentially a solution that kills itself. Charging will always be cheapest, so you'll want to maximize charging over hydrogen fueling. It'll incentivize the construction of home charging, street side charging and fast charging at all kinds of shops, restaurants etc. Most people will drive pure BEVs, and those that have hydrogen hybrids might fuel a handful of times a year. Every time batteries improve, the niche for the hydrogen hybrids will decrease. It's a terrible economy to build hydrogen fueling stations in. A hydrogen fueling station exploded near my home btw. I think eventually hydrogen will be completely safe. But it seems very likely that a few accidents like that will happen before then, which may kill any momentum hydrogen manages to build. Hydrogen explosions are scary, it can be heard for miles away.

huitzitziltzin 5y ago

> 1. People were stuck for more than 24 hours… The car lost 25% of its charge over 12 hours. If you want to extrapolate to 24, I don’t think it would be that hard to hazard a guess?? If you want to extrapolate to 36, 48, or any number of hours you have the information there to do so. Also - being frozen in place for 24 hours straight basically never happens to any car or driver. This is an unlikely event to worry about. If you don’t want one, don’t buy one. I on the other hand wondered about exactly this issue so I find this a very useful piece.

beerandt 5y ago
Interpolation is usually fine, but extrapolation should pretty much never be trusted for engineering or science. See: almost every attempt to scale up a small project.