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However, starlink isn't a product yet. It's hard to separate the hype from reality; so whether starlink turns out to be a practical alternative still needs pra

by emn13 5y ago

However, starlink isn't a product yet. It's hard to separate the hype from reality; so whether starlink turns out to be a practical alternative still needs practical demonstration. Or to put it another way - I'm sure you've heard of a few of the teething problems early adopters have, but it's not so clear whether those are merely small wrinkles, or just the tip of an iceberg of nasty practical problems that will render the network uneconomical. The idea is definitely very attractive, but it's not quite yet proven itself - and it's definitely unclear how realistic those cost guesstimates are.

thallium205 5y ago
What are you talking about it's definitely a product. I use it right now in my rural area (USPS doesn't even deliver here) and I'm getting 30ms latency with a 150/40 Mbps link. Rock solid for months straight even during snow storms.
- Jtsummers 5y ago
  And varelse, the one who I was responding to, is also using it right now. There are around 145k current users of the system. Which is certainly not enough to keep it afloat if it fails to grow in customer base, but it is a real thing being used by real people.
  - emn13 5y ago
    Yeah, that's what I meant - there's a beta out (i.e. a development tool), not a self-sustaining product. The scale is still too small; for this to be economically viable they need to show they can scale much larger and at competitive prices. I'm not saying that won't happen; but let's not go counting chickens before they hatch either.
- shaklee3 5y ago
  that's not what it means to be a product. it's a beta service that's nowhere near capacity. it would be like saying a website that served a hundred people is clearly capable of providing the same service to a million.
SECProto 5y ago
> However, starlink isn't a product yet. It's hard to separate the hype from reality; so whether starlink turns out to be a practical alternative still needs practical demonstration Yeah, it's a product. It's out of beta. I know people using it, I've video-chatted them for hours without a single hiccup. It's a real, practical alternative and it's here now. > I'm sure you've heard of a few of the teething problems early adopters have, but it's not so clear whether those are merely small wrinkles, or just the tip of an iceberg of nasty practical problems that will render the network uneconomical. I haven't, actually - the people I know using it have had it running for 5 months without any issues. The only issue I've seen online is someone's humourous photo where their cats sat on it because it's warm.
- emn13 5y ago
  I stand corrected; I had entirely missed that! I'd misremembered and thought that reviews such as https://www.tomsguide.com/reviews/starlink https://www.tomsguide.com/reviews/starlink were more recent; time flies ;-). The caveat here concerning economic viability still stands, even if it's not looking bad. Without insider knowledge concerning costs it's hard to say how many customers starlink minimally needs to sustain itself, but I get the impression that that number is going to be at least in the millions. Still, that might be just one order of magnitude to go, if they're lucky.
  - SECProto 5y ago
    Interesting - I'd be curious when that article was written - it states Sept 2, 2021 at the top, but towards the end of the article it mentions speeds improving to 200Mbps "as of April 12". Their experience sounds quite likely for those early days, but not at all what my relatives experienced (they got theirs in late August 2021). I think their dish placement is also poor - the app basically showed my relatives that the roof was the only place with good enough sight of the sky (they have similar amounts of trees to what's in videos on that article) > The caveat here concerning economic viability still stands, even if it's not looking bad. Yeah, for sure - however much you trust Elon's internal messaging, he suggested it is minimally viable as-is, needs starship to be a real moneymaker [1] [1] https://spaceexplored.com/2021/11/29/spacex-raptor-crisis/ https://spaceexplored.com/2021/11/29/spacex-raptor-crisis/

by emn13 5y ago

thallium205 5y ago

What are you talking about it's definitely a product. I use it right now in my rural area (USPS doesn't even deliver here) and I'm getting 30ms latency with a 150/40 Mbps link. Rock solid for months straight even during snow storms.

Jtsummers 5y ago
And varelse, the one who I was responding to, is also using it right now. There are around 145k current users of the system. Which is certainly not enough to keep it afloat if it fails to grow in customer base, but it is a real thing being used by real people.
- emn13 5y ago
  Yeah, that's what I meant - there's a beta out (i.e. a development tool), not a self-sustaining product. The scale is still too small; for this to be economically viable they need to show they can scale much larger and at competitive prices. I'm not saying that won't happen; but let's not go counting chickens before they hatch either.
shaklee3 5y ago
that's not what it means to be a product. it's a beta service that's nowhere near capacity. it would be like saying a website that served a hundred people is clearly capable of providing the same service to a million.

SECProto 5y ago

> However, starlink isn't a product yet. It's hard to separate the hype from reality; so whether starlink turns out to be a practical alternative still needs practical demonstration Yeah, it's a product. It's out of beta. I know people using it, I've video-chatted them for hours without a single hiccup. It's a real, practical alternative and it's here now. > I'm sure you've heard of a few of the teething problems early adopters have, but it's not so clear whether those are merely small wrinkles, or just the tip of an iceberg of nasty practical problems that will render the network uneconomical. I haven't, actually - the people I know using it have had it running for 5 months without any issues. The only issue I've seen online is someone's humourous photo where their cats sat on it because it's warm.

emn13 5y ago
I stand corrected; I had entirely missed that! I'd misremembered and thought that reviews such as https://www.tomsguide.com/reviews/starlink https://www.tomsguide.com/reviews/starlink were more recent; time flies ;-). The caveat here concerning economic viability still stands, even if it's not looking bad. Without insider knowledge concerning costs it's hard to say how many customers starlink minimally needs to sustain itself, but I get the impression that that number is going to be at least in the millions. Still, that might be just one order of magnitude to go, if they're lucky.
- SECProto 5y ago
  Interesting - I'd be curious when that article was written - it states Sept 2, 2021 at the top, but towards the end of the article it mentions speeds improving to 200Mbps "as of April 12". Their experience sounds quite likely for those early days, but not at all what my relatives experienced (they got theirs in late August 2021). I think their dish placement is also poor - the app basically showed my relatives that the roof was the only place with good enough sight of the sky (they have similar amounts of trees to what's in videos on that article) > The caveat here concerning economic viability still stands, even if it's not looking bad. Yeah, for sure - however much you trust Elon's internal messaging, he suggested it is minimally viable as-is, needs starship to be a real moneymaker [1] [1] https://spaceexplored.com/2021/11/29/spacex-raptor-crisis/ https://spaceexplored.com/2021/11/29/spacex-raptor-crisis/