4 ms·

(I strongly agree with what you've said re: "But this study... fluke... not correctly measured") At the risk of offering un-asked for advice, I have no problem

by loxias 5y ago

(I strongly agree with what you've said re: "But this study... fluke... not correctly measured") At the risk of offering un-asked for advice, I have no problem settling that debate! I think we share similar enough opinions regarding the underlying things that our conclusions would align. I'd attack it by using numbers. :D Measure the possible gain and possible loss for each choice, and choose the one with the EV or probability distribution you prefer, given your risk transfer function. You can get (approximate, but better than ex-recto!) hard numbers for the approximate risk of contracting COVID under a variety of changing variables. Shoutout to microcovid.org. For instance, I used their calculator to estimate the risk of a 3x vaccinated, KN95 mask wearing person such as myself, in my area, to have a 5 minute long (does it really take that long?) indoor shopping trip where I would be ~3 feet apart from anyone, with ~2 people in the room. Provided the other person's masked, and assuming there's no talking (which is a fib, but more close to reality than assuming it's 5 minutes of active conversation), I get ~13 microcovids. If I change that to assuming talking for 5 minutes, ~64 microcovids. To provide scale for the units, if you "spend" 200 microcovids per week, it works out to 1% covid/year. Given that, it feels easy to pop the balloon that the risk from going to the store outweighs the tiny statistical benefit of doing so. And if you really wanna pop that balloon, simply have a someone do it for you, and meet outside. 1 minute, being 3 feet away from a average unmasked person in my area, while outdoors, is then ~1.3 microcovids. :) yay numbers.

analyte123 5y ago
According to this site I "spent" no less than 200,000 "microcovids" last week. It was a normal week, like pretty much any other week in the past year, and I am not a particularly social person.
- loxias 5y ago
  I see no contradiction here. :) My weeks are possibly in a similar range as yours, now that I'm no longer avoiding it, I haven't used the site in months. This lines up with my understanding that it's endemic, and at a high level of prevalence in the population (in my area of the US). This also lines up with my understanding that the majority carrying it are asymptomatic, and that among the symptomatic, only the unvaxed or immunocompromised get sick enough for it to be the primary cause of hospitalization. Hence, significant danger only exists for the unvaxed or immunocompromised. The website is helping you think about the risk through approximating the probability of getting SARS-CoV-2. For me, I've accepted that P ~= 1. What it's not telling you is the probability that when you contract SARS-CoV-2, you'll regret it, or even know that it happened. The OP is in a completely different situation though. Vaccines aren't approved for a newborn (tho, there's promising indications that pregnant mothers who are vaccinated pass some benefits to the child!), and putting that aside, for OP, contracting even asymptomatic COVID could mean missing the birth, which I'm guessing has a cost approaching -infinity.
ricardobayes 5y ago
Nice site, but I'd argue 'went to a bar in the last 10 days' is not equal in risk as the risk of an acute covid patient, yet it counts as the same 1M microcovid.
- tata71 5y ago
  ~4-8% of the bar is/was certainly actively infected, so..?

by loxias 5y ago

analyte123 5y ago

According to this site I "spent" no less than 200,000 "microcovids" last week. It was a normal week, like pretty much any other week in the past year, and I am not a particularly social person.

loxias 5y ago
I see no contradiction here. :) My weeks are possibly in a similar range as yours, now that I'm no longer avoiding it, I haven't used the site in months. This lines up with my understanding that it's endemic, and at a high level of prevalence in the population (in my area of the US). This also lines up with my understanding that the majority carrying it are asymptomatic, and that among the symptomatic, only the unvaxed or immunocompromised get sick enough for it to be the primary cause of hospitalization. Hence, significant danger only exists for the unvaxed or immunocompromised. The website is helping you think about the risk through approximating the probability of getting SARS-CoV-2. For me, I've accepted that P ~= 1. What it's not telling you is the probability that when you contract SARS-CoV-2, you'll regret it, or even know that it happened. The OP is in a completely different situation though. Vaccines aren't approved for a newborn (tho, there's promising indications that pregnant mothers who are vaccinated pass some benefits to the child!), and putting that aside, for OP, contracting even asymptomatic COVID could mean missing the birth, which I'm guessing has a cost approaching -infinity.

ricardobayes 5y ago

Nice site, but I'd argue 'went to a bar in the last 10 days' is not equal in risk as the risk of an acute covid patient, yet it counts as the same 1M microcovid.

tata71 5y ago
~4-8% of the bar is/was certainly actively infected, so..?