3 ms·

> What am I overlooking? Mutations. An increased infections means increased chance of evolution of this virus. If the virus changes in the right way, current v

> What am I overlooking? Mutations. An increased infections means increased chance of evolution of this virus. If the virus changes in the right way, current vaccinations wont work anymore. Another problem is if it becomes more mutable, we could have waves of seasonal covid that like a cold doesn't care if you had another variant. It's in our best interest to try to stop the spread as much as possible.

_mersault 5y ago
Viral mutations trend toward reduced risk to carriers as a means to being more sustainably transmissible. Like other biological entities, viruses evolve to survive and replicate more efficiently. If the hosts die off, survival and replication is stunted. We’re not out of the woods yet w/r/t dangerous variants, but health risks will likely wane over time, and we’re obviously well past the point of meaningfully controlling transmission. We will absolutely experience seasonal waves and variance similar to the cold. All of that said, we need to do some realistic cost benefit analysis at this point. We have a new cold-like virus on the planet, and we’re implementing new ways to protect ourselves and treat it (if we’re smart). At this point, are the mental health and quality of life sacrifices we’re making worth it in the face of an inevitable endemic?
gremlinsinc 5y ago
Eventually... I think we'll hit herd immunity. Say there's a group of 100... like my county 42 of them are vaccinated. Say 10 die.... now you have 90... 42 vaccinated... that's now 46%... More deadly strain comes along, hitting the unvaxxed, and maybe 10 more die.. vaccinated rate is now 52.5%.. Eventually anti-science people will just fall victim to evolution and we'll trend towards 100% vaccinated, and then less vector for mutation. I think it'll always be w/ us....just maybe w/ less load via updated vaccines, we can continually keep it below high mortality thresholds for the general public, and lower viral load is lower chances for spread, and for mutations. I'm at the point of not much caring anymore, esp as far as anti-vax people come, though it'd be nice if we could triage them better where all other people come first in the hierarchy of needs and then --and only then if there are available beds can they receive one. I mean for decades we've done the same thing, except it was rich > poor... not it's people who trust doctors and are health responsible like organ donors are expected to be, who would receive first dibs at care. My biggest worry is the plummeting health of the healthcare workers themselves. Their mental health, their mass exodus. You can't just replace them. It takes years to encourage people to go into and then graduate from medical fields. I'm also worries about Cancer, i have lots of friends/family who've dealt w/ Cancer scares and most of them can't get even the littlest bit of pre-emptive care. My wife's mom died of Cancer last year and maybe she wouldn't have --had they not been throttling assesments and other doctor appointments. I have toddlers in preschool, but at this point I just accept we're all going to get it... so not worth worrying about.. As virulent as this version is, I just can't fathom a 4 year old not catching it somehow...I just hope they have mild cases and no lingering after-effects, I think I might have it now, as I've been super lethargic past 3 days and just exhausted... I'm triple vaxxed and still if this is it, it's not pleasant. TLDR: Delirious rambling re: I agree mutations are bad, dwindling healthcare worker health and resources is more bad, but also feel helpless, and kinda have given up, and just hope we can hurry up and get through all the unvaccinated people asap so we can fight this better. I'm a humanist, and usually compassionate, and care about human rights but I'm a bit jaded by the selfishness lately, and honestly the people who wouldn't wear a mask to protect others last year, I could care less if they end up winning a Herman Cain/Darwin Award this year. They provide so little value to society, they wouldn't have even been missed during the Thanos 'blip'. "Oh were you blipped? Huh...didn't evne notice...weird....awkward!".
- robhunter 5y ago
  Where are you getting a 10% fatality rate from?

_mersault 5y ago

Viral mutations trend toward reduced risk to carriers as a means to being more sustainably transmissible. Like other biological entities, viruses evolve to survive and replicate more efficiently. If the hosts die off, survival and replication is stunted. We’re not out of the woods yet w/r/t dangerous variants, but health risks will likely wane over time, and we’re obviously well past the point of meaningfully controlling transmission. We will absolutely experience seasonal waves and variance similar to the cold. All of that said, we need to do some realistic cost benefit analysis at this point. We have a new cold-like virus on the planet, and we’re implementing new ways to protect ourselves and treat it (if we’re smart). At this point, are the mental health and quality of life sacrifices we’re making worth it in the face of an inevitable endemic?

gremlinsinc 5y ago

Eventually... I think we'll hit herd immunity. Say there's a group of 100... like my county 42 of them are vaccinated. Say 10 die.... now you have 90... 42 vaccinated... that's now 46%... More deadly strain comes along, hitting the unvaxxed, and maybe 10 more die.. vaccinated rate is now 52.5%.. Eventually anti-science people will just fall victim to evolution and we'll trend towards 100% vaccinated, and then less vector for mutation. I think it'll always be w/ us....just maybe w/ less load via updated vaccines, we can continually keep it below high mortality thresholds for the general public, and lower viral load is lower chances for spread, and for mutations. I'm at the point of not much caring anymore, esp as far as anti-vax people come, though it'd be nice if we could triage them better where all other people come first in the hierarchy of needs and then --and only then if there are available beds can they receive one. I mean for decades we've done the same thing, except it was rich > poor... not it's people who trust doctors and are health responsible like organ donors are expected to be, who would receive first dibs at care. My biggest worry is the plummeting health of the healthcare workers themselves. Their mental health, their mass exodus. You can't just replace them. It takes years to encourage people to go into and then graduate from medical fields. I'm also worries about Cancer, i have lots of friends/family who've dealt w/ Cancer scares and most of them can't get even the littlest bit of pre-emptive care. My wife's mom died of Cancer last year and maybe she wouldn't have --had they not been throttling assesments and other doctor appointments. I have toddlers in preschool, but at this point I just accept we're all going to get it... so not worth worrying about.. As virulent as this version is, I just can't fathom a 4 year old not catching it somehow...I just hope they have mild cases and no lingering after-effects, I think I might have it now, as I've been super lethargic past 3 days and just exhausted... I'm triple vaxxed and still if this is it, it's not pleasant. TLDR: Delirious rambling re: I agree mutations are bad, dwindling healthcare worker health and resources is more bad, but also feel helpless, and kinda have given up, and just hope we can hurry up and get through all the unvaccinated people asap so we can fight this better. I'm a humanist, and usually compassionate, and care about human rights but I'm a bit jaded by the selfishness lately, and honestly the people who wouldn't wear a mask to protect others last year, I could care less if they end up winning a Herman Cain/Darwin Award this year. They provide so little value to society, they wouldn't have even been missed during the Thanos 'blip'. "Oh were you blipped? Huh...didn't evne notice...weird....awkward!".

robhunter 5y ago
Where are you getting a 10% fatality rate from?