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> whether due to official “depolicing” policies My recollection is that there have been almost no depolicing policies actually made in effect. Not even the Min

> whether due to official “depolicing” policies My recollection is that there have been almost no depolicing policies actually made in effect. Not even the Minneapolis complete dissolution of the police by whatever whatever time. Several big cities even increased their police funding. The argument that homicides have surged because of depolicing first needs to prove that depolicing actually happened. I would instead argue that an increase in homicides might be caused by an decrease in the general wellbeing of people when dealing with a pandemic. We're getting to the point where many people either know someone who has died or knows someone who knows someone who has died.

throwaway894345 5y ago
This is pretty well-established. > In the immediate aftermath of Brown’s death, self-initiated arrests fell 62 percent. Similar declines are seen across nine out of 11 categories of self-initiated activities, including foot patrol (down 82 percent) and pedestrian checks (76 percent). Notably, the decline in arrests is concentrated among misdemeanor arrests (more discretionary than felonies) and among arrests of blacks (rather than whites). This reduction in police activity persisted for at least the next two years. In the same period, the city experienced a significant rise in homicide and aggravated assault. > The multicity analysis shows a similar pattern. Cheng and Long assume that a Ferguson Effect will be more common in cities with higher black population shares, so they compare those in the top quartile of black population against the other cities as a control. They identify the same phenomenon as in St. Louis: the blackest cities saw larger declines in arrests relative to those with smaller black populations, driven by a decline in misdemeanor arrests, and a simultaneous large (10 percent) increase in homicide. > Both studies not only identify a decline in police activity and an increase in homicide after a high-profile incident but also argue that the nature of the decline in activity supports a “public scrutiny” mechanism for the effect. In particular, a drop in police activity for minor offenses drives the overall policing pullback. This fact supports a theory (as articulated by Premkumar) whereby officers reduce arrests that they deem “less important” in order to minimize public contact. That differs from a competing theory under which a loss of police “legitimacy”—which, in turn, reduces community engagement with the cops—drives the Ferguson Effect. If the competing theory were borne out, the study should have found reductions in arrests for offenses of all kinds. https://www.city-journal.org/new-evidence-connects-police-protests-and-rising-violent-crime https://www.city-journal.org/new-evidence-connects-police-pr...
- KittenInABox 5y ago
  But I just pointed out there's no evidence that policies are in effect. Your provided study is alarming but not at all supporting the specific language of your claim. Potentially the intention, but not the language.
  - throwaway894345 5y ago
    My claim was about a combination of policies, pressure, and loss of trust, not policies alone. I don't purport to know the coefficients, but the cited studies do support my claim. I suspect the most damaging policies are unofficial--top down pressure from politicians to avoid an embarrassing incident and district attorneys who don't prosecute (why should officers risk a confrontation with a dangerous criminal if they can't trust prosecutors to keep them off the streets?).

throwaway894345 5y ago

This is pretty well-established. > In the immediate aftermath of Brown’s death, self-initiated arrests fell 62 percent. Similar declines are seen across nine out of 11 categories of self-initiated activities, including foot patrol (down 82 percent) and pedestrian checks (76 percent). Notably, the decline in arrests is concentrated among misdemeanor arrests (more discretionary than felonies) and among arrests of blacks (rather than whites). This reduction in police activity persisted for at least the next two years. In the same period, the city experienced a significant rise in homicide and aggravated assault. > The multicity analysis shows a similar pattern. Cheng and Long assume that a Ferguson Effect will be more common in cities with higher black population shares, so they compare those in the top quartile of black population against the other cities as a control. They identify the same phenomenon as in St. Louis: the blackest cities saw larger declines in arrests relative to those with smaller black populations, driven by a decline in misdemeanor arrests, and a simultaneous large (10 percent) increase in homicide. > Both studies not only identify a decline in police activity and an increase in homicide after a high-profile incident but also argue that the nature of the decline in activity supports a “public scrutiny” mechanism for the effect. In particular, a drop in police activity for minor offenses drives the overall policing pullback. This fact supports a theory (as articulated by Premkumar) whereby officers reduce arrests that they deem “less important” in order to minimize public contact. That differs from a competing theory under which a loss of police “legitimacy”—which, in turn, reduces community engagement with the cops—drives the Ferguson Effect. If the competing theory were borne out, the study should have found reductions in arrests for offenses of all kinds. https://www.city-journal.org/new-evidence-connects-police-protests-and-rising-violent-crime https://www.city-journal.org/new-evidence-connects-police-pr...

KittenInABox 5y ago
But I just pointed out there's no evidence that policies are in effect. Your provided study is alarming but not at all supporting the specific language of your claim. Potentially the intention, but not the language.
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  My claim was about a combination of policies, pressure, and loss of trust, not policies alone. I don't purport to know the coefficients, but the cited studies do support my claim. I suspect the most damaging policies are unofficial--top down pressure from politicians to avoid an embarrassing incident and district attorneys who don't prosecute (why should officers risk a confrontation with a dangerous criminal if they can't trust prosecutors to keep them off the streets?).