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It was originally “abolish the police” and it was a pretty widespread slogan in summer of 2020 for those of us who visited the BLM protests. Perhaps they didn’

It was originally “abolish the police” and it was a pretty widespread slogan in summer of 2020 for those of us who visited the BLM protests. Perhaps they didn’t literally mean “do away with all police”, but no one was very explicit about what the slogan actually meant. And when the media tried to rationalize it as a metaphor (because it was so damaging to Democrats), many leftists corrected them, clarifying that they literally wanted police abolished. In whichever case, we’re presently suffering the effects of these anti-police protests as homicides have surged to levels not seen in 30 years (whether due to official “depolicing” policies or soft pressure for police to minimize proactive policing or due to reduced cooperation from the community or so on). Whether they literally meant “no police” or some other policy, it’s pretty clear that all of this leads to more crime, and the communities who pay are predominantly poor and/or minorities.

giraffe_lady 5y ago
Since virtually no police departments were "defunded" in any sense to any significant extent, it's not clear to me at all how that slogan or those protests contributed to any rising violence.
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  I refer you to the parenthetical in my third paragraph. > whether due to official “depolicing” policies or soft pressure for police to minimize proactive policing or due to reduced cooperation from the community or so on Note these findings regarding the St. Louis police department following the shooting of Michael Brown: > In the immediate aftermath of Brown’s death, self-initiated arrests fell 62 percent. Similar declines are seen across nine out of 11 categories of self-initiated activities, including foot patrol (down 82 percent) and pedestrian checks (76 percent). Notably, the decline in arrests is concentrated among misdemeanor arrests (more discretionary than felonies) and among arrests of blacks (rather than whites). This reduction in police activity persisted for at least the next two years. In the same period, the city experienced a significant rise in homicide and aggravated assault. https://www.city-journal.org/new-evidence-connects-police-protests-and-rising-violent-crime https://www.city-journal.org/new-evidence-connects-police-pr...
  - giraffe_lady 5y ago
    Again I don't see how you're making the connection that any of these things are "due to" any others. Crime does rise and fall over time and the reasons are notoriously complex and difficult to understand as it's happening. The police are certainly confident that anti-police sentiment leads to rising crime, but I don't have any reason to accept that evaluation right now.
    - throwaway894345 5y ago
      There’s a lot of literature, some of which is touched on in the link I shared. In general: 1. Crime rarely surges so dramatically as it has in the last 6 years. Note that before 2014, crime had been trending down consistently for decades. 2. Homicides spiked all over the country following major BLM protests. 3. The counties with the largest BLM activity saw the largest decreases in proactive policing and commensurate increases in homicides. How much more evidence is required (and how many additional thousands need to die) before we get folks on board to reverse these trends?
      - KerrAvon 5y ago
        You got nonpartisan citations for those assertions? I’ve been unable to find anything to back 2 and 3.
    - BobbyJo 5y ago
      By that same argument you have no reason to believe that pro-police sentiment causes an erosion of rights and safety.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- BobbyJo 5y ago
  These slogans we're indeed acted upon in several districts, which are indeed feeling the effects. See Portland for a prime example.
KarlKemp 5y ago
How do protests against police violence lead to more crime? Not a single police budget was actually cut.
- polski-g 5y ago
  If you can expect a murder charge for doing your job, don't expect many people to do said job: https://nypost.com/2020/06/13/unarmed-black-man-shot-dead-by-atlanta-cops-in-wendys-drive-thru/ https://nypost.com/2020/06/13/unarmed-black-man-shot-dead-by...
  - SauciestGNU 5y ago
    I'm sure that if I killed someone while at work I would face criminal charges. And yet I still do this job. I think the key thing here is to not kill people, and definitely don't make it somebody's job to kill people.
    - throwaway894345 5y ago
      Unless your job requires you to forcibly intervene between armed, violent offenders and their victims, I don’t see how this is relevant.
      - monocasa 5y ago
        Police's job doesn't force them to intervene either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_v._District_of_Columbia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_v._District_of_Columbia
        throwaway894345 5y ago
        You're confusing "forcibly intervene" with "forced to intervene".
        monocasa 5y ago
KittenInABox 5y ago
> whether due to official “depolicing” policies My recollection is that there have been almost no depolicing policies actually made in effect. Not even the Minneapolis complete dissolution of the police by whatever whatever time. Several big cities even increased their police funding. The argument that homicides have surged because of depolicing first needs to prove that depolicing actually happened. I would instead argue that an increase in homicides might be caused by an decrease in the general wellbeing of people when dealing with a pandemic. We're getting to the point where many people either know someone who has died or knows someone who knows someone who has died.
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  This is pretty well-established. > In the immediate aftermath of Brown’s death, self-initiated arrests fell 62 percent. Similar declines are seen across nine out of 11 categories of self-initiated activities, including foot patrol (down 82 percent) and pedestrian checks (76 percent). Notably, the decline in arrests is concentrated among misdemeanor arrests (more discretionary than felonies) and among arrests of blacks (rather than whites). This reduction in police activity persisted for at least the next two years. In the same period, the city experienced a significant rise in homicide and aggravated assault. > The multicity analysis shows a similar pattern. Cheng and Long assume that a Ferguson Effect will be more common in cities with higher black population shares, so they compare those in the top quartile of black population against the other cities as a control. They identify the same phenomenon as in St. Louis: the blackest cities saw larger declines in arrests relative to those with smaller black populations, driven by a decline in misdemeanor arrests, and a simultaneous large (10 percent) increase in homicide. > Both studies not only identify a decline in police activity and an increase in homicide after a high-profile incident but also argue that the nature of the decline in activity supports a “public scrutiny” mechanism for the effect. In particular, a drop in police activity for minor offenses drives the overall policing pullback. This fact supports a theory (as articulated by Premkumar) whereby officers reduce arrests that they deem “less important” in order to minimize public contact. That differs from a competing theory under which a loss of police “legitimacy”—which, in turn, reduces community engagement with the cops—drives the Ferguson Effect. If the competing theory were borne out, the study should have found reductions in arrests for offenses of all kinds. https://www.city-journal.org/new-evidence-connects-police-protests-and-rising-violent-crime https://www.city-journal.org/new-evidence-connects-police-pr...

giraffe_lady 5y ago

Since virtually no police departments were "defunded" in any sense to any significant extent, it's not clear to me at all how that slogan or those protests contributed to any rising violence.

throwaway894345 5y ago
I refer you to the parenthetical in my third paragraph. > whether due to official “depolicing” policies or soft pressure for police to minimize proactive policing or due to reduced cooperation from the community or so on Note these findings regarding the St. Louis police department following the shooting of Michael Brown: > In the immediate aftermath of Brown’s death, self-initiated arrests fell 62 percent. Similar declines are seen across nine out of 11 categories of self-initiated activities, including foot patrol (down 82 percent) and pedestrian checks (76 percent). Notably, the decline in arrests is concentrated among misdemeanor arrests (more discretionary than felonies) and among arrests of blacks (rather than whites). This reduction in police activity persisted for at least the next two years. In the same period, the city experienced a significant rise in homicide and aggravated assault. https://www.city-journal.org/new-evidence-connects-police-protests-and-rising-violent-crime https://www.city-journal.org/new-evidence-connects-police-pr...
- giraffe_lady 5y ago
  Again I don't see how you're making the connection that any of these things are "due to" any others. Crime does rise and fall over time and the reasons are notoriously complex and difficult to understand as it's happening. The police are certainly confident that anti-police sentiment leads to rising crime, but I don't have any reason to accept that evaluation right now.
  - throwaway894345 5y ago
    There’s a lot of literature, some of which is touched on in the link I shared. In general: 1. Crime rarely surges so dramatically as it has in the last 6 years. Note that before 2014, crime had been trending down consistently for decades. 2. Homicides spiked all over the country following major BLM protests. 3. The counties with the largest BLM activity saw the largest decreases in proactive policing and commensurate increases in homicides. How much more evidence is required (and how many additional thousands need to die) before we get folks on board to reverse these trends?
    - KerrAvon 5y ago
      You got nonpartisan citations for those assertions? I’ve been unable to find anything to back 2 and 3.
  - BobbyJo 5y ago
    By that same argument you have no reason to believe that pro-police sentiment causes an erosion of rights and safety.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
BobbyJo 5y ago
These slogans we're indeed acted upon in several districts, which are indeed feeling the effects. See Portland for a prime example.

KarlKemp 5y ago

How do protests against police violence lead to more crime? Not a single police budget was actually cut.

polski-g 5y ago
If you can expect a murder charge for doing your job, don't expect many people to do said job: https://nypost.com/2020/06/13/unarmed-black-man-shot-dead-by-atlanta-cops-in-wendys-drive-thru/ https://nypost.com/2020/06/13/unarmed-black-man-shot-dead-by...
- SauciestGNU 5y ago
  I'm sure that if I killed someone while at work I would face criminal charges. And yet I still do this job. I think the key thing here is to not kill people, and definitely don't make it somebody's job to kill people.
  - throwaway894345 5y ago
    Unless your job requires you to forcibly intervene between armed, violent offenders and their victims, I don’t see how this is relevant.
    - monocasa 5y ago
      Police's job doesn't force them to intervene either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_v._District_of_Columbia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_v._District_of_Columbia
      - throwaway894345 5y ago
        You're confusing "forcibly intervene" with "forced to intervene".
        monocasa 5y ago

KittenInABox 5y ago

> whether due to official “depolicing” policies My recollection is that there have been almost no depolicing policies actually made in effect. Not even the Minneapolis complete dissolution of the police by whatever whatever time. Several big cities even increased their police funding. The argument that homicides have surged because of depolicing first needs to prove that depolicing actually happened. I would instead argue that an increase in homicides might be caused by an decrease in the general wellbeing of people when dealing with a pandemic. We're getting to the point where many people either know someone who has died or knows someone who knows someone who has died.

throwaway894345 5y ago
This is pretty well-established. > In the immediate aftermath of Brown’s death, self-initiated arrests fell 62 percent. Similar declines are seen across nine out of 11 categories of self-initiated activities, including foot patrol (down 82 percent) and pedestrian checks (76 percent). Notably, the decline in arrests is concentrated among misdemeanor arrests (more discretionary than felonies) and among arrests of blacks (rather than whites). This reduction in police activity persisted for at least the next two years. In the same period, the city experienced a significant rise in homicide and aggravated assault. > The multicity analysis shows a similar pattern. Cheng and Long assume that a Ferguson Effect will be more common in cities with higher black population shares, so they compare those in the top quartile of black population against the other cities as a control. They identify the same phenomenon as in St. Louis: the blackest cities saw larger declines in arrests relative to those with smaller black populations, driven by a decline in misdemeanor arrests, and a simultaneous large (10 percent) increase in homicide. > Both studies not only identify a decline in police activity and an increase in homicide after a high-profile incident but also argue that the nature of the decline in activity supports a “public scrutiny” mechanism for the effect. In particular, a drop in police activity for minor offenses drives the overall policing pullback. This fact supports a theory (as articulated by Premkumar) whereby officers reduce arrests that they deem “less important” in order to minimize public contact. That differs from a competing theory under which a loss of police “legitimacy”—which, in turn, reduces community engagement with the cops—drives the Ferguson Effect. If the competing theory were borne out, the study should have found reductions in arrests for offenses of all kinds. https://www.city-journal.org/new-evidence-connects-police-protests-and-rising-violent-crime https://www.city-journal.org/new-evidence-connects-police-pr...