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So they sold $500M in stock of a company that was worth over $50B at its peak last year... Has the underlying business even changed that much? Isn't it mainly j

by rkk3 5y ago

So they sold $500M in stock of a company that was worth over $50B at its peak last year... Has the underlying business even changed that much? Isn't it mainly just they were priced at a ridiculous multiple and that has corrected? People love the story of falling from grace though.

vorpalhex 5y ago
I'm not a Peloton insider and I sold a few months ago during their bubble. It was very clear their profit/valuation did not align with their market value. They a very obvious bubble of interest which eventually faltered.
- bastardoperator 5y ago
  I've never understood how a stationary bike with a screen and some sensors could cost more than or equal to an actual bike. Screens and sensors are cheap and the make of a peloton is also extremely cheap when compared to say a carbon frame bike. Then I see stuff like this which is something you might expect from a hundred dollar bicycle purchased at WalMart: https://i.imgur.com/QFSj0fQ.jpg https://i.imgur.com/QFSj0fQ.jpg What am I missing?
  - ageitgey 5y ago
    They aren't selling a bike. They are selling an exercise lifestyle/club. It has nothing to do with the cost of parts of the bike. I know that sounds silly, but what you are really paying for are the daily feed of multiple live classes hosted by your choice of personality type. Do you identify with a 25 year old into trendy music and partying? Do you identify with a 35-40 year old who listens to early 90s rock? Do you identify with a mom who is in great shape and loves ABBA? They have all those choices, mixed in with special "events" to get you excited to join the classes regularly. They want you to feel like you are joining a social club and you have found your niche/identity. That's something that another exercise bike vendor can't really compete with. And they've really nailed the whole Apple-like experience where everything just works (assuming your bike isn't defective or whatever). The bike is just one way to sell that exercise club to people who want to jump into a class with zero setup. They also have a whole platform for normal exercise classes, yoga, etc and lot of people without the bike or treadmill subscribe to that package. My LG TV even has it built-in now where I can turn on any number of live Peloton classes whenever I want. I'm not suggesting that they aren't massively overvalued or that the equipment doesn't have issues. But the actual quality of the classes is pretty good and is a really impressive product if you are into that. The bike itself isn't the point other than as a vehicle into their platform.
    - bastardoperator 5y ago
      I hear you, personally it just sounds absurd to think I would pay 3k to watch someone else pedaling a stationary bike on what is otherwise kind of cheap equipment, but I'm probably missing something or I'm not the target. Do they have controls over the work out/equipment in real time, take for instance increasing the resistance during the workout? If so that would make a lot more sense. Exciting to me as petty as it sounds is breathing fresh air and getting out of my house given the circumstances. Thanks for the reply and explanation.
      - vanusa 5y ago
        Of course it's absurd but a lot of research has been done into what motivates people to make so-called discretionary purchases (that is, most anything above the level of bare necessities at the lowest feasible price, if you can afford it) and other life decisions which are essentially purchase-like. And not surprisingly, a lot of this motivation has to do with (relative) status and image, and the ability to project it. As applies to everything from what clothes you wear and what car you drive, to where you go to school and what neighborhood you live in, etc. I won't call the following article "research" but it does seem to capture the spirit of this line of thinking: https://buffer.com/resources/people-dont-buy-products-they-buy-better-versions-of-themselves/ https://buffer.com/resources/people-dont-buy-products-they-b...

by rkk3 5y ago

vorpalhex 5y ago

I'm not a Peloton insider and I sold a few months ago during their bubble. It was very clear their profit/valuation did not align with their market value. They a very obvious bubble of interest which eventually faltered.

bastardoperator 5y ago
I've never understood how a stationary bike with a screen and some sensors could cost more than or equal to an actual bike. Screens and sensors are cheap and the make of a peloton is also extremely cheap when compared to say a carbon frame bike. Then I see stuff like this which is something you might expect from a hundred dollar bicycle purchased at WalMart: https://i.imgur.com/QFSj0fQ.jpg https://i.imgur.com/QFSj0fQ.jpg What am I missing?
- ageitgey 5y ago
  They aren't selling a bike. They are selling an exercise lifestyle/club. It has nothing to do with the cost of parts of the bike. I know that sounds silly, but what you are really paying for are the daily feed of multiple live classes hosted by your choice of personality type. Do you identify with a 25 year old into trendy music and partying? Do you identify with a 35-40 year old who listens to early 90s rock? Do you identify with a mom who is in great shape and loves ABBA? They have all those choices, mixed in with special "events" to get you excited to join the classes regularly. They want you to feel like you are joining a social club and you have found your niche/identity. That's something that another exercise bike vendor can't really compete with. And they've really nailed the whole Apple-like experience where everything just works (assuming your bike isn't defective or whatever). The bike is just one way to sell that exercise club to people who want to jump into a class with zero setup. They also have a whole platform for normal exercise classes, yoga, etc and lot of people without the bike or treadmill subscribe to that package. My LG TV even has it built-in now where I can turn on any number of live Peloton classes whenever I want. I'm not suggesting that they aren't massively overvalued or that the equipment doesn't have issues. But the actual quality of the classes is pretty good and is a really impressive product if you are into that. The bike itself isn't the point other than as a vehicle into their platform.
  - bastardoperator 5y ago
    I hear you, personally it just sounds absurd to think I would pay 3k to watch someone else pedaling a stationary bike on what is otherwise kind of cheap equipment, but I'm probably missing something or I'm not the target. Do they have controls over the work out/equipment in real time, take for instance increasing the resistance during the workout? If so that would make a lot more sense. Exciting to me as petty as it sounds is breathing fresh air and getting out of my house given the circumstances. Thanks for the reply and explanation.
    - vanusa 5y ago
      Of course it's absurd but a lot of research has been done into what motivates people to make so-called discretionary purchases (that is, most anything above the level of bare necessities at the lowest feasible price, if you can afford it) and other life decisions which are essentially purchase-like. And not surprisingly, a lot of this motivation has to do with (relative) status and image, and the ability to project it. As applies to everything from what clothes you wear and what car you drive, to where you go to school and what neighborhood you live in, etc. I won't call the following article "research" but it does seem to capture the spirit of this line of thinking: https://buffer.com/resources/people-dont-buy-products-they-buy-better-versions-of-themselves/ https://buffer.com/resources/people-dont-buy-products-they-b...