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> But one thing your narrative leaves out is that there were power shortages creating long outages causing substantial damage, Sure, this is true. That was ne

> But one thing your narrative leaves out is that there were power shortages creating long outages causing substantial damage, Sure, this is true. That was never in dispute though, so I didn't address it. I don't think I have a "narrative". I'm just tired of every single thread about what happened last February in Texas turning into an opportunity for everybody to get their political kicks in on the basis of lies and twists. That behavior does exactly nothing to solve any of the problems identified, and it stokes feelings of undeserved self-righteousness. The power shortages could have been avoided had wind generation been properly weatherized and had we had properly weatherized gas wells to supply the peaker plants. Neither of those things were true, and therefore this situation occurred. So far, we seem to have improved generation weatherization since, but the wells are still not weatherized, so it's possible this situation (or something similar) could occur again. It remains to be seen.

mindslight 5y ago
I just meant 'narrative' as a tying together of facts and corresponding synthesis - an inherent thing rather than a bad thing. I do think the market failure here is a bit political, in that it's market fundamentalism to rely solely on spot prices, falling back to wishful thinking that short periods of extremely high prices will somehow incentivize new investment into the market. That decision to not have a capacity market is definitely a political one. Agreed on the physical things that need to happen to prevent this from reoccurring, but the question is how to get those things implemented. A strong regulated market would just declare that they need to be done, and ignore the protests of how burdensome they are. Whereas a deregulated market dynamic really needs a forward capacity market or some other incentive for plants to do the preparation for staying online. And this applies to both the electricity and natural gas markets.
- tristor 5y ago
  Unfortunately reality is more complex than we would like it to be. You're correct that a proper capacity market would likely have mitigated much of this issue, on the flip side capacity markets in other regions/grids are a major driver behind continued coal power generation as coal is the lowest cost type of generation for capacity markets. The lack of a capacity market in Texas is not motivated by environmental concerns, but nonetheless if such a capacity market were created in Texas it would likely be detrimental to the environment given the current overall incentive structure. The bigger issue is that ERCOT /has/ made a regulation saying generators need to weatherize, which they have done so and been inspected and verified. But ERCOT can't control the natural gas producers, and they have thus far mostly refused to weatherize their wellheads, and therefore we may once again find that we can't drive peaker generation high enough to meet demand due to inadequate natural gas supply pressure. The oil & gas industry and electrical utilities are regulated independently in Texas, although they are often considered to be the same as "the energy sector", and so there is definitely more that can/should be done here. I guess we'll see how it pans out. With better weatherized renewables, it's likely we won't see this situation re-occur. There was plenty of wind blowing during the crisis, so had the wind turbines been properly weatherized we wouldn't have needed as much peaker capacity anyway.
  - mindslight 5y ago
    It feels like "capacity" is a straightforward measure of what was missing here, but maybe there is a better definition of "capacity" that would favor coal plants less? Off the top of my head, perhaps some statistical modeling that would let a distributed combination of wind/solar count as "capacity", with well-defined pricey penalties if they renege on their commitment?

mindslight 5y ago

I just meant 'narrative' as a tying together of facts and corresponding synthesis - an inherent thing rather than a bad thing. I do think the market failure here is a bit political, in that it's market fundamentalism to rely solely on spot prices, falling back to wishful thinking that short periods of extremely high prices will somehow incentivize new investment into the market. That decision to not have a capacity market is definitely a political one. Agreed on the physical things that need to happen to prevent this from reoccurring, but the question is how to get those things implemented. A strong regulated market would just declare that they need to be done, and ignore the protests of how burdensome they are. Whereas a deregulated market dynamic really needs a forward capacity market or some other incentive for plants to do the preparation for staying online. And this applies to both the electricity and natural gas markets.

tristor 5y ago
Unfortunately reality is more complex than we would like it to be. You're correct that a proper capacity market would likely have mitigated much of this issue, on the flip side capacity markets in other regions/grids are a major driver behind continued coal power generation as coal is the lowest cost type of generation for capacity markets. The lack of a capacity market in Texas is not motivated by environmental concerns, but nonetheless if such a capacity market were created in Texas it would likely be detrimental to the environment given the current overall incentive structure. The bigger issue is that ERCOT /has/ made a regulation saying generators need to weatherize, which they have done so and been inspected and verified. But ERCOT can't control the natural gas producers, and they have thus far mostly refused to weatherize their wellheads, and therefore we may once again find that we can't drive peaker generation high enough to meet demand due to inadequate natural gas supply pressure. The oil & gas industry and electrical utilities are regulated independently in Texas, although they are often considered to be the same as "the energy sector", and so there is definitely more that can/should be done here. I guess we'll see how it pans out. With better weatherized renewables, it's likely we won't see this situation re-occur. There was plenty of wind blowing during the crisis, so had the wind turbines been properly weatherized we wouldn't have needed as much peaker capacity anyway.
- mindslight 5y ago
  It feels like "capacity" is a straightforward measure of what was missing here, but maybe there is a better definition of "capacity" that would favor coal plants less? Off the top of my head, perhaps some statistical modeling that would let a distributed combination of wind/solar count as "capacity", with well-defined pricey penalties if they renege on their commitment?