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> From a propaganda point of view, I think it will be challenging to get Americans to care about Ukraine. With the pandemic, and other domestic issues, worrying

> From a propaganda point of view, I think it will be challenging to get Americans to care about Ukraine. With the pandemic, and other domestic issues, worrying about it is not a priority. And, unsurprisingly, Putin understands that as too, which makes him bolder. Well, it hasn't played well, has it? The first shipments of weapons landed in Ukraine, and more are to follow, together with training teams. The only thing that Putin gained by his threats is more firepower in Ukraine. The annexation of Crimea went well because most people there were Russians. When I went there some years ago I was surprised everybody was speaking Russian, to the point they called hryvnas (local currency) "rubles"... So before the annexation actually happened you could feel local people would actually welcome it as a chance for a positive change (this is no longer the case and the same people feel betrayed). Also most people in Donbas were Russian. The folks there were very poor. My colleague's family stopped paying their rent, electricity and so on many years ago - and this was the case in many blocks of flats. They felt that any change for them would be a positive one. Now the Ukrainians are extremely motivated. They know that if Putin invades, they will be slaves forever. They are determined to protect their country, and every day have more and more weapons. There is no way Putin could invade Ukraine without extremely high casualties.

q1w2 5y ago
The total amount of new weaponry to Ukraine is not significant given the scale of the invasion he is preparing. ...and I don't think Putin really cares about the additional few Russian soldiers that die. > When I went there some years ago I was surprised everybody was speaking Russian This is true for most of Ukraine. The western rural areas do still speak Ukrainian and there's been some push to keep that culture alive, but the entire east and south are very Russian, and it's by far the most common language used - even among ethnic Ukrainians - even in Kiev. > ...if Putin invades, they will be slaves forever. They probably expect the setup of a puppet Russian client state, similar to Belarus. "Slavery" is a bit hyperbolic. My point is that I'm not sure how many soldiers are willing to die over what seems like an unlikely victory. One of the main problems with Ukrainian defense is that the largest cities, and hence the majority of the population, lives of the population lives in one of a hand full of cities that is within 50-100 miles of the Russia or Belarus border (Kiev, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Marpiol. Ironically, Odessa is the western most large city - but it has a massive Russia population. If the advance is quick and takes these cities, the Ukrainian will see their capital and the majority of their population under the Russian military. Given that, I think the Ukrainian military will capitulate rapidly. I think the Ukrainians know that as well, so it really demotivates units to stay and fight. I don't think any strategist believes Ukraine can win a fixed conventional battle. In fact, my guess is that the defeat in Armenia due to drone warfare, and the subsequent agreements between Ukraine and Turkey to arm with drone, might have hastened Putin's sense of urgency. But my feeling is that Russia is honestly on the fence between taking all of Ukraine by force, or simply extracting a humiliating negotiated settlement from the west. If I were a psychopath, and I were Putin, I would demand NATO troop withdrawal from the Baltics (maybe offering similar withdrawals on the Russian side), all of the territory east of the Dniper river (+/- some anomolies), formal recognition of the annexations, and a new lucrative Germany natural gas deal. ...and then be willing to settle for just "most" of the land east of the Dniper (but it would need to include the coast and the Crimea water canal).
- zozbot234 5y ago
  NATO will not agree to your proposed "deal". But they just might agree to a deal that says: "Evil Ukrainian nationalists have been using the prospect of the Ukraine's NATO membership as propaganda, in ways that disrespect NATO's founding principles as outlined in the Treaty. To deter them and as a reaction to that, we will not be accepting the Ukraine as a full NATO member for the next X [e.g. twenty] years, although we might cooperate with them in other ways short of full membership. We will also be respecting a buffer zone in the Donbass for that same time period, and will not be conducting any operations there, if Russia and the Ukraine agree to the same." This is also a kind of deal that would be very problematic for Putin to not accept! It is more humiliating for the West and Ukraine than much of what has been proposed so far, which is what Russians seem to like. So if Putin rejects it, he might lose a lot of his popularity.
- hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago
  > They probably expect the setup of a puppet Russian client state, similar to Belarus. "Slavery" is a bit hyperbolic. Is it? After the last elections in Belarus thousands of people were risking their lives and some of them actually died as they were fighting for their freedom and independence from Russia. And in Ukraine, even worse happened at Maidan: people decided freedom is more important than their lives. Paradoxically, Putin made this spirit stronger. Normal people feel this is just unfair and cruel to invade a country just like that. It doesn't matter if you're Ukrainian or Russian (living in Ukraine), this kind of bloodshed would have no justification. I
rdtsc 5y ago
> Well, it hasn't played well, has it? The first shipments of weapons landed in Ukraine, and more are to follow, together with training teams. The only thing that Putin gained by his threats is more firepower in Ukraine. I think it's going to play very well in the hands of Putin in the end. The more equipment lands the more he will capture. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War the "Equipment losses and cost". I remember them making a big spectacle of driving the captured American Humvees. Here one such segment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcH02Z4DYO8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcH02Z4DYO8 Now don't get me wrong, I am not on Putin's side. I want Ukraine to stay independent and want it to win. I just don't see it easily happening and am starting to see the same thing as with the Georgian war happening again.

q1w2 5y ago

The total amount of new weaponry to Ukraine is not significant given the scale of the invasion he is preparing. ...and I don't think Putin really cares about the additional few Russian soldiers that die. > When I went there some years ago I was surprised everybody was speaking Russian This is true for most of Ukraine. The western rural areas do still speak Ukrainian and there's been some push to keep that culture alive, but the entire east and south are very Russian, and it's by far the most common language used - even among ethnic Ukrainians - even in Kiev. > ...if Putin invades, they will be slaves forever. They probably expect the setup of a puppet Russian client state, similar to Belarus. "Slavery" is a bit hyperbolic. My point is that I'm not sure how many soldiers are willing to die over what seems like an unlikely victory. One of the main problems with Ukrainian defense is that the largest cities, and hence the majority of the population, lives of the population lives in one of a hand full of cities that is within 50-100 miles of the Russia or Belarus border (Kiev, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Marpiol. Ironically, Odessa is the western most large city - but it has a massive Russia population. If the advance is quick and takes these cities, the Ukrainian will see their capital and the majority of their population under the Russian military. Given that, I think the Ukrainian military will capitulate rapidly. I think the Ukrainians know that as well, so it really demotivates units to stay and fight. I don't think any strategist believes Ukraine can win a fixed conventional battle. In fact, my guess is that the defeat in Armenia due to drone warfare, and the subsequent agreements between Ukraine and Turkey to arm with drone, might have hastened Putin's sense of urgency. But my feeling is that Russia is honestly on the fence between taking all of Ukraine by force, or simply extracting a humiliating negotiated settlement from the west. If I were a psychopath, and I were Putin, I would demand NATO troop withdrawal from the Baltics (maybe offering similar withdrawals on the Russian side), all of the territory east of the Dniper river (+/- some anomolies), formal recognition of the annexations, and a new lucrative Germany natural gas deal. ...and then be willing to settle for just "most" of the land east of the Dniper (but it would need to include the coast and the Crimea water canal).

zozbot234 5y ago
NATO will not agree to your proposed "deal". But they just might agree to a deal that says: "Evil Ukrainian nationalists have been using the prospect of the Ukraine's NATO membership as propaganda, in ways that disrespect NATO's founding principles as outlined in the Treaty. To deter them and as a reaction to that, we will not be accepting the Ukraine as a full NATO member for the next X [e.g. twenty] years, although we might cooperate with them in other ways short of full membership. We will also be respecting a buffer zone in the Donbass for that same time period, and will not be conducting any operations there, if Russia and the Ukraine agree to the same." This is also a kind of deal that would be very problematic for Putin to not accept! It is more humiliating for the West and Ukraine than much of what has been proposed so far, which is what Russians seem to like. So if Putin rejects it, he might lose a lot of his popularity.
hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago
> They probably expect the setup of a puppet Russian client state, similar to Belarus. "Slavery" is a bit hyperbolic. Is it? After the last elections in Belarus thousands of people were risking their lives and some of them actually died as they were fighting for their freedom and independence from Russia. And in Ukraine, even worse happened at Maidan: people decided freedom is more important than their lives. Paradoxically, Putin made this spirit stronger. Normal people feel this is just unfair and cruel to invade a country just like that. It doesn't matter if you're Ukrainian or Russian (living in Ukraine), this kind of bloodshed would have no justification. I

rdtsc 5y ago

> Well, it hasn't played well, has it? The first shipments of weapons landed in Ukraine, and more are to follow, together with training teams. The only thing that Putin gained by his threats is more firepower in Ukraine. I think it's going to play very well in the hands of Putin in the end. The more equipment lands the more he will capture. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War the "Equipment losses and cost". I remember them making a big spectacle of driving the captured American Humvees. Here one such segment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcH02Z4DYO8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcH02Z4DYO8 Now don't get me wrong, I am not on Putin's side. I want Ukraine to stay independent and want it to win. I just don't see it easily happening and am starting to see the same thing as with the Georgian war happening again.