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For one thing, the DOE emergency market waiver to temporarily exceed emissions limits set a market floor price of $1500. [0] So that's your starting price befor

For one thing, the DOE emergency market waiver to temporarily exceed emissions limits set a market floor price of $1500. [0] So that's your starting price before buyers ever bid/compete for those MW. (Emissions limits are especially difficult in cold weather due to a less complete burn off and less atmospheric mixing. But this isn't to spinup new dirty power, so much as to run existing plants at full capacity without having to reduce output to more ideal levels for emissions purposes.) To dispel a few other points that get repeated without much thought: Texas' grid isolation didn't contribute. Surrounding grids including in Louisiana and Oklahoma were also undersupplied and operating under emergency conditions with requests for voluntary reduced consumption, and were also dangerously close to blackouts. Connections to grids without surplus power doesn't solve anything. Wind power was frozen in and decreased over 97% over the previous 2 weeks as blades iced over or wind speed exceeded allowable limits. Solar was also iced over. Which led to a premature demand for gas peaker plants to offset this loss via a 450%+ increase in generation. So peakers were needed to offset intermittent renewables instead of as a buffer to meeting peak demand. "Winterizing" NG plants, wells and lines is complex. What's simple and mostly ignored, is an overloaded NG system causes pressure drops, and pressure drops contribute disproportionately to condensate (both water and methane hydrates) freezing and reducing flow, which is a runaway condition. Pressure drops affects this much greater than temperature (even propane tanks in summer ice up when used at a high rate for an extended time). An increase in NG supply (more wells and pipes) would have greatly improved things without any "winterizing". Coal and nuclear plants don't suffer from this fuel supply limitation since they have on-site fuel supplies, and the recent closure of 20%+ of the states coal capacity surely contributed, as do the remaining closures going back a decade+ of increased EPA regulation. [0]https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021/02/f82/DOE%20202%28c%29%20Emergency%20Order%20-%20ERCOT%2002.14.2021.pdf https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021/02/f82/DOE%2...

cloverich 5y ago
I guess the follow up question would be: How do our more northern areas go about winterizing -- do they do the extra NG system as you suggest? Or do they also freeze and nobody does it any better than Texas? I had thought the winterization claims stemmed from areas that experience this weather more frequently having solved it, or at least improved it, so it would be more interesting to compare to how they handle it. Esp if the cited mandates are federal and e.g. affect them as well?
- beerandt 5y ago
  It's more about expected supply and demand under certain constraints than any particular winterizing technology. Cold weather spikes (or stretches) are expected in the north. It's sort of like asking why Northern or Western coastal cities don't have better hurricane protection or levees. It's not needed or worth the investment, even if New England does get an occasional hurricane. Despite federal flood protection mandates. Asking what Southern and Gulf Coast cities do to prepare is a valid question, but doesn't justify taking the same precautions. A better comparison is perhaps a windless summertime high pressure system causing rolling blackouts in California or Chicago. When was the last time you heard the spot price publicized during a summertime blackout? Was it blamed on the equipment not being sufficiently designed for operation during an infrequent heat wave? Or on lack of planning? Or just blamed on the "freak" heat and possibly global warming? The Texas event is a bit more complex due to underlying and transitioning infrastructure buildout where NG plays a much larger role, but its roughly the same as far as expectations go. And the bigger takeaway should be that overdemand/undersupply of NG in cold weather is a runaway condition, but mainly due to pressure drops at the wells, not lack of insulation. Expected spikes don't cause pressure drops.

cloverich 5y ago

I guess the follow up question would be: How do our more northern areas go about winterizing -- do they do the extra NG system as you suggest? Or do they also freeze and nobody does it any better than Texas? I had thought the winterization claims stemmed from areas that experience this weather more frequently having solved it, or at least improved it, so it would be more interesting to compare to how they handle it. Esp if the cited mandates are federal and e.g. affect them as well?

beerandt 5y ago
It's more about expected supply and demand under certain constraints than any particular winterizing technology. Cold weather spikes (or stretches) are expected in the north. It's sort of like asking why Northern or Western coastal cities don't have better hurricane protection or levees. It's not needed or worth the investment, even if New England does get an occasional hurricane. Despite federal flood protection mandates. Asking what Southern and Gulf Coast cities do to prepare is a valid question, but doesn't justify taking the same precautions. A better comparison is perhaps a windless summertime high pressure system causing rolling blackouts in California or Chicago. When was the last time you heard the spot price publicized during a summertime blackout? Was it blamed on the equipment not being sufficiently designed for operation during an infrequent heat wave? Or on lack of planning? Or just blamed on the "freak" heat and possibly global warming? The Texas event is a bit more complex due to underlying and transitioning infrastructure buildout where NG plays a much larger role, but its roughly the same as far as expectations go. And the bigger takeaway should be that overdemand/undersupply of NG in cold weather is a runaway condition, but mainly due to pressure drops at the wells, not lack of insulation. Expected spikes don't cause pressure drops.