4 ms·

Why is that so? Mafia can hire good analysts and theorists, and try to formulate policies that lead to their long term survival.

by publicola1990 5y ago

shmerl 5y ago
Smarter dictator will have someone around who isn't scared to tell them they are doing something stupid. Putin isn't smart enough for that. He lives in a bubble where everyone can only praise him. So it's a typical example of Dunning–Kruger effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect
- publicola1990 5y ago
  Why do we have to assume that? He may have a brilliant think tank obscured from public gaze. I think it would be naive to assume that he didn't have a close inner circle precisely for that.
  - shmerl 5y ago
    That's simply how I understand it given a lot of public information. The best example of that is how Putin squandered all the inherited technological potential of USSR. Instead of investing in technology he simply wants to rob everything he can get hold of. His attitude to progress resembles Stalin's dialogue with Vavilov about genetics. So no matter what inner circle he has, it can't be called anything but stupid. Feel free to do your own analysis though :)
    - zozbot234 5y ago
      > The best example of that is how Putin squandered all the inherited technological potential of USSR. My rationalizing model of that is a sort of Trump-like populist move. He might want to be seen as visibly anti-West, because that's what gives him the best support base - it might just be what some in Russia expect, or want to see. This is of course disappointing to some extent from a Western POV, but not to be altogether unexpected given the lack of support Russia got from the West back in the 1990s (while hit by a deep economic crisis). Those chickens might now be coming home to roost, and if so it would be quite hard to wish for better attitudes towards the West today.
      - bvrmn 5y ago
        It's funny you've mentioned chickens. My favorite food at 90s was frozen chicken and chicken sausages from USA. We called it Bush legs. There was no any other affordable meat at that time.
    - publicola1990 5y ago
      Assuming stupidity/incompetence of an adversory is usually not a solid analysis, if one does that and then the adversory suddenly starts pulling smart moves, one could be at serious disadvantage. In general though, I do feel much of western analysis on Russia etc is too simplifying, and naive. Cultural and historical context are so vastly different that, I think certainly more nuance is required.
      - zozbot234 5y ago
        You know, I want to agree but technology is not the only policy area where Russian policymakers seem to be less-than-rational. Economic development is another. Why hasn't anyone in Russia since the 1990s tried to pull a Deng Xiaoping move and create the right policy environment for broad-based economic growth? Most of the non-policy prerequisites are there already, and yet right now Russia is only falling further behind China.
      - shmerl 5y ago
        And sometimes things are just that - stupid. Putin uses fear mongering to appear more important than he is. As a soon has he faces resolute and strong response, he hides with his tail between his legs. If you want to stress cultural nuance here, you can look into Russian criminal subculture, which will give you a very good idea about Putin's modus operandi. It doesn't mean you should underestimate the damage he can cause. But you shouldn't assign him more value or long term thinking than he actually has. That's exactly what Putin wants - not to appear as sheer mediocrity that he is.

Why is that so? Mafia can hire good analysts and theorists, and try to formulate policies that lead to their long term survival.

shmerl 5y ago

Smarter dictator will have someone around who isn't scared to tell them they are doing something stupid. Putin isn't smart enough for that. He lives in a bubble where everyone can only praise him. So it's a typical example of Dunning–Kruger effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

publicola1990 5y ago
Why do we have to assume that? He may have a brilliant think tank obscured from public gaze. I think it would be naive to assume that he didn't have a close inner circle precisely for that.
- shmerl 5y ago
  That's simply how I understand it given a lot of public information. The best example of that is how Putin squandered all the inherited technological potential of USSR. Instead of investing in technology he simply wants to rob everything he can get hold of. His attitude to progress resembles Stalin's dialogue with Vavilov about genetics. So no matter what inner circle he has, it can't be called anything but stupid. Feel free to do your own analysis though :)
  - zozbot234 5y ago
    > The best example of that is how Putin squandered all the inherited technological potential of USSR. My rationalizing model of that is a sort of Trump-like populist move. He might want to be seen as visibly anti-West, because that's what gives him the best support base - it might just be what some in Russia expect, or want to see. This is of course disappointing to some extent from a Western POV, but not to be altogether unexpected given the lack of support Russia got from the West back in the 1990s (while hit by a deep economic crisis). Those chickens might now be coming home to roost, and if so it would be quite hard to wish for better attitudes towards the West today.
    - bvrmn 5y ago
      It's funny you've mentioned chickens. My favorite food at 90s was frozen chicken and chicken sausages from USA. We called it Bush legs. There was no any other affordable meat at that time.
  - publicola1990 5y ago
    Assuming stupidity/incompetence of an adversory is usually not a solid analysis, if one does that and then the adversory suddenly starts pulling smart moves, one could be at serious disadvantage. In general though, I do feel much of western analysis on Russia etc is too simplifying, and naive. Cultural and historical context are so vastly different that, I think certainly more nuance is required.
    - zozbot234 5y ago
      You know, I want to agree but technology is not the only policy area where Russian policymakers seem to be less-than-rational. Economic development is another. Why hasn't anyone in Russia since the 1990s tried to pull a Deng Xiaoping move and create the right policy environment for broad-based economic growth? Most of the non-policy prerequisites are there already, and yet right now Russia is only falling further behind China.
    - shmerl 5y ago
      And sometimes things are just that - stupid. Putin uses fear mongering to appear more important than he is. As a soon has he faces resolute and strong response, he hides with his tail between his legs. If you want to stress cultural nuance here, you can look into Russian criminal subculture, which will give you a very good idea about Putin's modus operandi. It doesn't mean you should underestimate the damage he can cause. But you shouldn't assign him more value or long term thinking than he actually has. That's exactly what Putin wants - not to appear as sheer mediocrity that he is.