3 ms·

The 2+ km CEP[0] of early ICBMs required a large warhead to ensure that the target would be taken out. With this large of an error, you can easily make fortifie

The 2+ km CEP[0] of early ICBMs required a large warhead to ensure that the target would be taken out. With this large of an error, you can easily make fortified structures and bunkers survive a 'close' hit, so civilian targets were the only target left. Once the CEP got small enough, bunkers were no longer effective as you can't really make a bunker strong enough if the nuke can be delivered right on top of it. EPW nukes can burrow 100+ meters into the ground before detonating to deliver more of their energy to the target, which means a vastly smaller nuke. [0]: A circle in which 50% of your shots will land, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_error_probable https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_error_probable

techdragon 5y ago
Not saying you’re wrong, but fo you have a reference for the >100m penetration figure you’ve mentioned? The best numbers I can find are ~50 meters of “ground”, substantially less (but still impressive) for concrete… but this is a long way short of over 100 meters.
- extrapickles 5y ago
  The GBU-57A/B is rated for 61m of penetration. I believe there has been testing of munitions that can do 100-150m, and that is roughly the depth you need to have a hope of fully containing the blast to eliminate fallout. I’m not aware of any munition in operational service that has a public penetration of 100m though.
  - bell-cot 5y ago
    The GBU-57A/B is a conventional (non-nuclear) device, weighing 14,000kg. (Vs. the W76 warhead on a Trident missile is ~100kg.) Conventional bombs can reliably detonate after taking damage (say, from smashing through 61m of earth & concrete) which would utterly ruin the delicate geometries and mechanisms of a nuclear weapon. And for smaller targets (say, the "deep" bunker under somebody's Presidential Palace), the kinetic energy of 14,000kg smashing through the roof (without detonating) has a very good chance of accomplishing the mission.
    - extrapickles 5y ago
      They made nuclear artillery shells and bunker busters. This indicates they are not sensitive to shock. Since the impact is a known force & vector, you can pre-deform the mechanism so the impact causes the geometries to be correct, and/or just live with reduced yields from less than ideal geometries. They do not have public figures for any of the recent nuclear bunker busters, though its likely on the order of 100m based on the depths that various countries have claimed to have made bunkers. The main limiting factor for depth is what speed the materials can handle before vaporizing, how dense you can make the nose and how much mass your delivery system can handle. Like you have said, nuclear busters are moot as putting 14000kg on someones dining table will still ruin their day without the political issues that nukes cause.

techdragon 5y ago

Not saying you’re wrong, but fo you have a reference for the >100m penetration figure you’ve mentioned? The best numbers I can find are ~50 meters of “ground”, substantially less (but still impressive) for concrete… but this is a long way short of over 100 meters.

extrapickles 5y ago
The GBU-57A/B is rated for 61m of penetration. I believe there has been testing of munitions that can do 100-150m, and that is roughly the depth you need to have a hope of fully containing the blast to eliminate fallout. I’m not aware of any munition in operational service that has a public penetration of 100m though.
- bell-cot 5y ago
  The GBU-57A/B is a conventional (non-nuclear) device, weighing 14,000kg. (Vs. the W76 warhead on a Trident missile is ~100kg.) Conventional bombs can reliably detonate after taking damage (say, from smashing through 61m of earth & concrete) which would utterly ruin the delicate geometries and mechanisms of a nuclear weapon. And for smaller targets (say, the "deep" bunker under somebody's Presidential Palace), the kinetic energy of 14,000kg smashing through the roof (without detonating) has a very good chance of accomplishing the mission.
  - extrapickles 5y ago
    They made nuclear artillery shells and bunker busters. This indicates they are not sensitive to shock. Since the impact is a known force & vector, you can pre-deform the mechanism so the impact causes the geometries to be correct, and/or just live with reduced yields from less than ideal geometries. They do not have public figures for any of the recent nuclear bunker busters, though its likely on the order of 100m based on the depths that various countries have claimed to have made bunkers. The main limiting factor for depth is what speed the materials can handle before vaporizing, how dense you can make the nose and how much mass your delivery system can handle. Like you have said, nuclear busters are moot as putting 14000kg on someones dining table will still ruin their day without the political issues that nukes cause.