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That outcome isn't necessarily bad. It's somewhat arrogant of us to assume that we understand enough about a system as complex as the Earth's biosphere and atmo

That outcome isn't necessarily bad. It's somewhat arrogant of us to assume that we understand enough about a system as complex as the Earth's biosphere and atmosphere to know for sure a larger percentage of CO2 will necessarily be bad long term. It's feasible that it could be better, even if only after a painful transition. I for one find the future where we're not actively managing the Earth's climate in some way to be the more pessimistic outcome. It indicates that civilization has failed to continue advancing, probably isn't spacefaring, and that the light of consciousness will eventually twinkle out once the Earth becomes uninhabitable in about 500 million years. We'll see.

AnthonyMouse 5y ago
> It's somewhat arrogant of us to assume that we understand enough about a system as complex as the Earth's biosphere and atmosphere to know for sure a larger percentage of CO2 will necessarily be bad long term. It's feasible that it could be better, even if only after a painful transition. That's the problem. Maybe it's better, maybe it's worse, and there is only one way to find out. But if it's worse, finding out is very bad. And there is no way to know ahead of time.
nandhinianand 5y ago
I think we can and should be confident about the short-medium term negative effects of high CO2 on human civilization. You can always spread doubt about anything that's long-term(say more than 2 decades) but it doesn't help to hope long-term it works, and short-term let it hurt as much as possible.
ncmncm 5y ago
We know that, at least, thousands of species, including many not catalogged, will be driven to extinction, that large currently inhabited areas will become uninhabitable, that tens or hundreds of millions of those inhabitants will be converted to refugees unable to provide for themselves, and the influx of those refugees will drive temperate nation governments to fascism. If that is not bad enough, I can go on. The "everything is so uncertain, we must do nothing" line has worn out its welcome. It was dishonest 30 years ago, and is reprehensible today.
- vixen99 5y ago
  Rather as in the pandemic, the attention paid to models is remarkable. You can cherry pick a model to suit your predilections. They certainly cover a wide range of possibilities. I do wonder what your view is of the utter lack of any concerted action by countries in response to these models? If we're off to hell in a handbasket, it does seem that few in power, with access to the best authorities available, are really concerned. How is that? Extinction Rebellion are certainly logical on the basis of their belief in the views of some climate scientists. They sound and act rather like people who'd say yes to O'Brien's question in 1984 when he asks Winston if he's prepared to do some pretty horrible things in pursuance of the objective of overthrowing Big Brother. But when it comes down to it, no one is convinced. Example: Coal is now back on the menu when power shortages loom.
  - ncmncm 5y ago
    People in power expect to be dead before the chickens come home to roost. They didn't get where they are by caring about what happens to anybody else. Provided civilization doesn't wholly collapse before then, they are insulated from all consequences.
  - adrianN 5y ago
    All the accepted models point in the direction of mass extinctions to varying degrees.
  - midjji 5y ago
    I'm pretty sure the models are right, and that we will hit +4C on time, that politicians are aware of this, and they wont do much about it. They want to, but all real solutions have massive conflicts of interest, and they are aware voters dont really care much about global warming compared to other issues like house prices and jobs. In forums like this, where everyone has a well paying job and fuck you money, it is important to preserve the planet, just not enough that more than 1% here would approve a build permit for a windfarm next door to their house. Arguably we mostly care about preserving the nice nature we now enjoy for free, and this is as good as it gets. The vast majority of people who specifically feel climate change is important still dont think the near guarantee of climate change is more important than the negligible risks of nuclear power. Basically, politicians are representing the true interests of the population, which to be fair is their job. We just arent who we want to pretend we are.
Bud 5y ago
Arrogant? It's arrogant? You might want to read up on the effects of higher CO2 levels on human cognition. It's not pretty. And it completely blows your comment out of the water. We already know that the CO2 levels that are forecast this century are going to be catastrophic. This isn't a "we'll see" situation anymore. We have seen. The only question is whether we will do something about it before it is far, far too late. You need to worry about the next 50 years before you start worrying about 500 million years.

AnthonyMouse 5y ago

> It's somewhat arrogant of us to assume that we understand enough about a system as complex as the Earth's biosphere and atmosphere to know for sure a larger percentage of CO2 will necessarily be bad long term. It's feasible that it could be better, even if only after a painful transition. That's the problem. Maybe it's better, maybe it's worse, and there is only one way to find out. But if it's worse, finding out is very bad. And there is no way to know ahead of time.

nandhinianand 5y ago

I think we can and should be confident about the short-medium term negative effects of high CO2 on human civilization. You can always spread doubt about anything that's long-term(say more than 2 decades) but it doesn't help to hope long-term it works, and short-term let it hurt as much as possible.

ncmncm 5y ago

We know that, at least, thousands of species, including many not catalogged, will be driven to extinction, that large currently inhabited areas will become uninhabitable, that tens or hundreds of millions of those inhabitants will be converted to refugees unable to provide for themselves, and the influx of those refugees will drive temperate nation governments to fascism. If that is not bad enough, I can go on. The "everything is so uncertain, we must do nothing" line has worn out its welcome. It was dishonest 30 years ago, and is reprehensible today.

vixen99 5y ago
Rather as in the pandemic, the attention paid to models is remarkable. You can cherry pick a model to suit your predilections. They certainly cover a wide range of possibilities. I do wonder what your view is of the utter lack of any concerted action by countries in response to these models? If we're off to hell in a handbasket, it does seem that few in power, with access to the best authorities available, are really concerned. How is that? Extinction Rebellion are certainly logical on the basis of their belief in the views of some climate scientists. They sound and act rather like people who'd say yes to O'Brien's question in 1984 when he asks Winston if he's prepared to do some pretty horrible things in pursuance of the objective of overthrowing Big Brother. But when it comes down to it, no one is convinced. Example: Coal is now back on the menu when power shortages loom.
- ncmncm 5y ago
  People in power expect to be dead before the chickens come home to roost. They didn't get where they are by caring about what happens to anybody else. Provided civilization doesn't wholly collapse before then, they are insulated from all consequences.
- adrianN 5y ago
  All the accepted models point in the direction of mass extinctions to varying degrees.
- midjji 5y ago
  I'm pretty sure the models are right, and that we will hit +4C on time, that politicians are aware of this, and they wont do much about it. They want to, but all real solutions have massive conflicts of interest, and they are aware voters dont really care much about global warming compared to other issues like house prices and jobs. In forums like this, where everyone has a well paying job and fuck you money, it is important to preserve the planet, just not enough that more than 1% here would approve a build permit for a windfarm next door to their house. Arguably we mostly care about preserving the nice nature we now enjoy for free, and this is as good as it gets. The vast majority of people who specifically feel climate change is important still dont think the near guarantee of climate change is more important than the negligible risks of nuclear power. Basically, politicians are representing the true interests of the population, which to be fair is their job. We just arent who we want to pretend we are.

Bud 5y ago

Arrogant? It's arrogant? You might want to read up on the effects of higher CO2 levels on human cognition. It's not pretty. And it completely blows your comment out of the water. We already know that the CO2 levels that are forecast this century are going to be catastrophic. This isn't a "we'll see" situation anymore. We have seen. The only question is whether we will do something about it before it is far, far too late. You need to worry about the next 50 years before you start worrying about 500 million years.