4 ms·

Infected individuals often have a period where they are actively infecting others but not yet showing symptoms.

lotsofpulp 5y ago
Right, same as all the other viruses floating around, that we also had before SARS-CoV-2 or covid-19 or whatever. I get the initial lockdowns and period of time to figure out this new thing, but at this point in time, I do not see how people's risk profile is any different than what it was before Dec 2019.
- macintux 5y ago
  Flu, I believe, is most contagious when you’re feeling ill. That’s one huge difference between this pandemic and just your typical flu. You can’t isolate if you don’t know you’re sick.
  - Symmetry 5y ago
    That does seem to be changing now that we've all been vaccinated, though. It seems that training your immune system to recognize the virus leads to symptoms developing earlier in the course of disease, below the ~10^6 copies/mL threshold a rapid test can detect. I don't know if everybody who is vaccinated is getting early symptoms but anecdotally it seems to be pretty common.
- fullstop 5y ago
  Two reasons, IMO. 1. Things such as influenza mostly spread when the person is symptomatic. 2. Something along the lines of 50% of covid infections are from pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic people. Self isolating when you have symptoms is certainly good, but it is by no means the entire picture.
- mrtesthah 5y ago
  >I do not see how people's risk profile is any different than what it was before Dec 2019. There are virtually zero deaths attributable directly to flu by hospitals. The vast majority are imputed by estimated excess deaths. So even by completely different and unfair metrics, covid is vastly more dangerous. If you went by that standard covid likely has claimed over a million US deaths already, compared to a few tens of thousand for flu. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm On top of that, covid has a significantly higher R0 value, which means you’re much, much more likely to come into contact with it. That’s how you change your risk calculation: it’s the cost of getting it (probability of death or maiming) times the probability of getting it (community spread level and nasal viral shedding rate). There is no mitigating factor here wrt covid vs flu risk.

Right, same as all the other viruses floating around, that we also had before SARS-CoV-2 or covid-19 or whatever. I get the initial lockdowns and period of time to figure out this new thing, but at this point in time, I do not see how people's risk profile is any different than what it was before Dec 2019.

macintux 5y ago
Flu, I believe, is most contagious when you’re feeling ill. That’s one huge difference between this pandemic and just your typical flu. You can’t isolate if you don’t know you’re sick.
- Symmetry 5y ago
  That does seem to be changing now that we've all been vaccinated, though. It seems that training your immune system to recognize the virus leads to symptoms developing earlier in the course of disease, below the ~10^6 copies/mL threshold a rapid test can detect. I don't know if everybody who is vaccinated is getting early symptoms but anecdotally it seems to be pretty common.
fullstop 5y ago
Two reasons, IMO. 1. Things such as influenza mostly spread when the person is symptomatic. 2. Something along the lines of 50% of covid infections are from pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic people. Self isolating when you have symptoms is certainly good, but it is by no means the entire picture.
mrtesthah 5y ago
>I do not see how people's risk profile is any different than what it was before Dec 2019. There are virtually zero deaths attributable directly to flu by hospitals. The vast majority are imputed by estimated excess deaths. So even by completely different and unfair metrics, covid is vastly more dangerous. If you went by that standard covid likely has claimed over a million US deaths already, compared to a few tens of thousand for flu. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm On top of that, covid has a significantly higher R0 value, which means you’re much, much more likely to come into contact with it. That’s how you change your risk calculation: it’s the cost of getting it (probability of death or maiming) times the probability of getting it (community spread level and nasal viral shedding rate). There is no mitigating factor here wrt covid vs flu risk.