3 ms·

I think north west India would be a huge Muslim country if taken as an independent country, so dismissing it as 'just 13%' is kinda a funny dodge. Some Europea

I think north west India would be a huge Muslim country if taken as an independent country, so dismissing it as 'just 13%' is kinda a funny dodge. Some European countries already have a plurality of births to migrant groups, I think the figure is better than 20% for Spain and France- so even if fertility euqalizes its a big demographic event considering the timescale.

mschuster91 5y ago
> Some European countries already have a plurality of births to migrant groups, I think the figure is better than 20% for Spain and France- so even if fertility euqalizes its a big demographic event considering the timescale. Spain has 10% people with migration history. It will take a lot of generations for that to change in a major way simply with fertility - and after three or four generations, it's hardly fair to call these people migrants anyway. In the US, a second-generation migrant became the 44th President and a third-generation migrant became the 45th President.
- maxerickson 5y ago
  Isn't "second-generation migrant" incoherent as a description of someone living in the country they were born in?
  - mschuster91 5y ago
    "first/second generation migrant" is a widely used term in sociology and economy to detect and track differences between native and immigrant population. The term is common both in the US [1] and EU [2], with the latter actually going up to "third-generation migrant" when talking about long-term effects; the Swiss passed a special law to ease citizenship requirements for third-generation migrants. [3] [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigrant_generations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigrant_generations [2]: https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/pages/glossary/second-generation-migrant_en https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/pages/glossary/second-gene... [3]: https://www.admin.ch/gov/de/start/dokumentation/abstimmungen/20170212/bundesbeschluss-ueber-die-erleichterte-einbuergerung-von-persone.html https://www.admin.ch/gov/de/start/dokumentation/abstimmungen...
- throwawaygal7 5y ago
  Actually if there are consistently 10% migratants with a fertility rate above the average, this will cause a growth in whatever ethnic groups are migrating - even if you just consider them 'french' or 'spanish' in the second or third generations. Muslims make up 8.8% of France right now, and they have grown significantly as a percentage of the population even in the last ten years almost a percentage point. Will this ever go to 50%? Probably not but we are likely to see a higher fraction in the future.

mschuster91 5y ago

> Some European countries already have a plurality of births to migrant groups, I think the figure is better than 20% for Spain and France- so even if fertility euqalizes its a big demographic event considering the timescale. Spain has 10% people with migration history. It will take a lot of generations for that to change in a major way simply with fertility - and after three or four generations, it's hardly fair to call these people migrants anyway. In the US, a second-generation migrant became the 44th President and a third-generation migrant became the 45th President.

maxerickson 5y ago
Isn't "second-generation migrant" incoherent as a description of someone living in the country they were born in?
- mschuster91 5y ago
  "first/second generation migrant" is a widely used term in sociology and economy to detect and track differences between native and immigrant population. The term is common both in the US [1] and EU [2], with the latter actually going up to "third-generation migrant" when talking about long-term effects; the Swiss passed a special law to ease citizenship requirements for third-generation migrants. [3] [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigrant_generations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigrant_generations [2]: https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/pages/glossary/second-generation-migrant_en https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/pages/glossary/second-gene... [3]: https://www.admin.ch/gov/de/start/dokumentation/abstimmungen/20170212/bundesbeschluss-ueber-die-erleichterte-einbuergerung-von-persone.html https://www.admin.ch/gov/de/start/dokumentation/abstimmungen...
throwawaygal7 5y ago
Actually if there are consistently 10% migratants with a fertility rate above the average, this will cause a growth in whatever ethnic groups are migrating - even if you just consider them 'french' or 'spanish' in the second or third generations. Muslims make up 8.8% of France right now, and they have grown significantly as a percentage of the population even in the last ten years almost a percentage point. Will this ever go to 50%? Probably not but we are likely to see a higher fraction in the future.