> it's likely that China will not make real moves for the foreseeable future All it would take is an incident causing the dictatorship's leader to lose face an

> it's likely that China will not make real moves for the foreseeable future All it would take is an incident causing the dictatorship's leader to lose face and force him to take action to distract from the crisis (see Falklands War for example.) It could be anything, something like an industrial accident at a poorly managed facility causing massive deaths and a worldwide crisis. Initially they would cover it up but when it becomes public, like in Chernobyl, the régime would be discredited and forced into a panic. I know it is far fetched, it's hard to see how such a mishap could have such far reaching consequences, but it realistically could happen at any time.