4 ms·

>differences in fertility rates will lead to Islamic demographic ascendancy That seems mathematically sound. What am I missing?

by fooker 5y ago

hoseja 5y ago
Stop noticing things.
naravara 5y ago
Straight line extrapolations of present trends indefinitely into the future are rarely reliable. Plus the demographics are generally driven more by poverty and access to family planning resources moreso than the religious/demographic warfare angle nationalists tend to lean to. In other words, if demographic balance was really the concern the most effective proven way to address it would be to invest heavily in education and healthcare in the community with above-average fertility. But instead the proposed policies always insist on more and harsher crackdowns on the minority group, which will be counterproductive at best.
- dharmach 5y ago
  If this was true (or the only factor), the demographic trends in India would match the ones from Pakistan and Bangladesh.
  - naravara 5y ago
    Why do you say that? There’s a million differences between the populations of those three countries. For one thing, Muslim family law in India is actually a fair bit more conservative than in Pak/Bang.
mschuster91 5y ago
> What am I missing? The fact that a correlation between religion and fertility rates is completely bollocks (with the notable exceptions of some extremist/fundamentalist sects of Christianity such as Quiverfull and Amish as well as fringes of the Jewish Ultra-Orthodox movement). High reproduction rates are closely linked to poverty [1], and once wealth rises in a country or people migrate from poor/high-rate countries, birth rates drop accordingly [2]. Additionally, it's a simple numbers game. The US only has 1% of Muslim faith [3], the European continent has ~7.5% [4] Muslims (of which 2/3rds belong to Russia and Turkey - the European Union figure is ~3.3%), even India barely has 13% [5]. It's mathematically impossible for Islam to achieve dominance in any country it doesn't already have by population in any feasible time scale, especially as religious affiliation in general keeps dropping and dropping associated again with wealth and education levels. In general, the "the Muslims will replace us demographically!!!" take is dominantly found on the far-right end of the political spectrum, with the worst of the worst being the virulently anti-semitic "great replacement" theory that alleges that a "new world order" led by Jews wants to "replace" the intelligent White Christian population with dumb Muslims [6]. Please, don't fall for that kind of baseless, vile propaganda. [1]: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/aug/25/high-birth-rates-poverty-undermine-generation-african-children-odi-report https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/aug/25/h... [2]: https://www.knomad.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/Migration%20Fertility%20Paper%20%282019%20Update_World%20Bank%29_final_-converted.pdf https://www.knomad.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/Migration... [3]: https://www.pewforum.org/2021/01/14/measuring-religion-in-pew-research-centers-american-trends-panel/ https://www.pewforum.org/2021/01/14/measuring-religion-in-pe... [4]: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Europa#Statistik https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Europa#Statistik [5]: https://www.bpb.de/internationales/asien/indien/44418/muslime-in-indien https://www.bpb.de/internationales/asien/indien/44418/muslim... [6]: https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounders/the-great-replacement-an-explainer https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounders/the-great-replac...
- dharmach 5y ago
  It is not about plain fertility rate but tipping of demographic balance between communities by various means. It can create pockets of Muslim majority in countries where they are minority and then "right to self-determination" means partitions.
  - mschuster91 5y ago
    > It can create pockets of Muslim majority in countries where they are minority I assume you're talking about the Parisian "banlieues", Berlin-Neukölln and similar areas? These ghettos are the result of a mixture of gentrification and (decades of) ethnic discrimination... basically, what happens is: First, many immigrants take up low-paid jobs in society because of language barriers or un-recognized qualification documents [1] or because of ethnic discrimination in hiring [2]. That means they are restricted to social/cheap housing by their low income. These housing situations (sometimes quickly) deteriorate in a phenomenon called "white flight", which leads to a vicious cycle of discrimination by city quarter [3] and everyone who is able to fleeing, leading to a collapse in rents and a subsequent rise in migrant and "down on their luck" (i.e. criminals and other people unable to find regular housing) people. In the end, the government and its services as well as economy (e.g. supermarkets, small shops, ...) also retreats from such areas, leading to further decline. The people left behind then go and self-organize - some in positive forms such as ethnic grocery exports/imports stores, some in negative forms such as crime gangs. The ethnic discrimination, especially against the young second- or third-generation migrants, also leads to a rise in gang-related crime: when schools fail to educate them, the employment market discriminates against them and cultural icons glorify a life of crime or crime is the only way to make a living without depending on social security, way too many choose the way of joining a gang. The crime then invites politicians, usually from the Conservative to far-right, to call for "law and order" tactics from police, which leads to an increase of discrimination by police, a further split between the immigrant and indigenous population and sometimes outright ethnic riots (the London 2011 riots began with the killing of a Black suspect by police, the Paris 2005 riots began with the death of two immigrant youth who fled from police in fear of lengthy "interrogations", and the BLM-associated riots were triggered by George Floyd being murdered by police). And historically, governments haven't exactly had a track record combatting the early signs of gentrification or ghettoization... which makes all the crying and complaining about "segregation", "parallel cultures" etc. when something happens (such as the mentioned riots, or the gang murder spree in Sweden) a bit cynical. The policies of the Conservative and far-right politicians created the very same problems they are now complaining about. [1]: https://www.spiegel.de/karriere/oecd-eu-studie-besonders-viele-migranten-arbeiten-fuer-niedrigloehne-a-1242825.html https://www.spiegel.de/karriere/oecd-eu-studie-besonders-vie... [2]: https://www.spiegel.de/lebenundlernen/schule/auslaendische-vornamen-migranten-diskriminierung-durch-firmen-bestaetigt-a-960855.html https://www.spiegel.de/lebenundlernen/schule/auslaendische-v... [3]: https://www.bpb.de/politik/innenpolitik/stadt-und-gesellschaft/64391/einfuehrung https://www.bpb.de/politik/innenpolitik/stadt-und-gesellscha...

>differences in fertility rates will lead to Islamic demographic ascendancy That seems mathematically sound. What am I missing?

by fooker 5y ago

>differences in fertility rates will lead to Islamic demographic ascendancy That seems mathematically sound. What am I missing?

hoseja 5y ago

Stop noticing things.

naravara 5y ago

Straight line extrapolations of present trends indefinitely into the future are rarely reliable. Plus the demographics are generally driven more by poverty and access to family planning resources moreso than the religious/demographic warfare angle nationalists tend to lean to. In other words, if demographic balance was really the concern the most effective proven way to address it would be to invest heavily in education and healthcare in the community with above-average fertility. But instead the proposed policies always insist on more and harsher crackdowns on the minority group, which will be counterproductive at best.

dharmach 5y ago
If this was true (or the only factor), the demographic trends in India would match the ones from Pakistan and Bangladesh.
- naravara 5y ago
  Why do you say that? There’s a million differences between the populations of those three countries. For one thing, Muslim family law in India is actually a fair bit more conservative than in Pak/Bang.

mschuster91 5y ago

> What am I missing? The fact that a correlation between religion and fertility rates is completely bollocks (with the notable exceptions of some extremist/fundamentalist sects of Christianity such as Quiverfull and Amish as well as fringes of the Jewish Ultra-Orthodox movement). High reproduction rates are closely linked to poverty [1], and once wealth rises in a country or people migrate from poor/high-rate countries, birth rates drop accordingly [2]. Additionally, it's a simple numbers game. The US only has 1% of Muslim faith [3], the European continent has ~7.5% [4] Muslims (of which 2/3rds belong to Russia and Turkey - the European Union figure is ~3.3%), even India barely has 13% [5]. It's mathematically impossible for Islam to achieve dominance in any country it doesn't already have by population in any feasible time scale, especially as religious affiliation in general keeps dropping and dropping associated again with wealth and education levels. In general, the "the Muslims will replace us demographically!!!" take is dominantly found on the far-right end of the political spectrum, with the worst of the worst being the virulently anti-semitic "great replacement" theory that alleges that a "new world order" led by Jews wants to "replace" the intelligent White Christian population with dumb Muslims [6]. Please, don't fall for that kind of baseless, vile propaganda. [1]: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/aug/25/high-birth-rates-poverty-undermine-generation-african-children-odi-report https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/aug/25/h... [2]: https://www.knomad.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/Migration%20Fertility%20Paper%20%282019%20Update_World%20Bank%29_final_-converted.pdf https://www.knomad.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/Migration... [3]: https://www.pewforum.org/2021/01/14/measuring-religion-in-pew-research-centers-american-trends-panel/ https://www.pewforum.org/2021/01/14/measuring-religion-in-pe... [4]: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Europa#Statistik https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Europa#Statistik [5]: https://www.bpb.de/internationales/asien/indien/44418/muslime-in-indien https://www.bpb.de/internationales/asien/indien/44418/muslim... [6]: https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounders/the-great-replacement-an-explainer https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounders/the-great-replac...

dharmach 5y ago
It is not about plain fertility rate but tipping of demographic balance between communities by various means. It can create pockets of Muslim majority in countries where they are minority and then "right to self-determination" means partitions.
- mschuster91 5y ago
  > It can create pockets of Muslim majority in countries where they are minority I assume you're talking about the Parisian "banlieues", Berlin-Neukölln and similar areas? These ghettos are the result of a mixture of gentrification and (decades of) ethnic discrimination... basically, what happens is: First, many immigrants take up low-paid jobs in society because of language barriers or un-recognized qualification documents [1] or because of ethnic discrimination in hiring [2]. That means they are restricted to social/cheap housing by their low income. These housing situations (sometimes quickly) deteriorate in a phenomenon called "white flight", which leads to a vicious cycle of discrimination by city quarter [3] and everyone who is able to fleeing, leading to a collapse in rents and a subsequent rise in migrant and "down on their luck" (i.e. criminals and other people unable to find regular housing) people. In the end, the government and its services as well as economy (e.g. supermarkets, small shops, ...) also retreats from such areas, leading to further decline. The people left behind then go and self-organize - some in positive forms such as ethnic grocery exports/imports stores, some in negative forms such as crime gangs. The ethnic discrimination, especially against the young second- or third-generation migrants, also leads to a rise in gang-related crime: when schools fail to educate them, the employment market discriminates against them and cultural icons glorify a life of crime or crime is the only way to make a living without depending on social security, way too many choose the way of joining a gang. The crime then invites politicians, usually from the Conservative to far-right, to call for "law and order" tactics from police, which leads to an increase of discrimination by police, a further split between the immigrant and indigenous population and sometimes outright ethnic riots (the London 2011 riots began with the killing of a Black suspect by police, the Paris 2005 riots began with the death of two immigrant youth who fled from police in fear of lengthy "interrogations", and the BLM-associated riots were triggered by George Floyd being murdered by police). And historically, governments haven't exactly had a track record combatting the early signs of gentrification or ghettoization... which makes all the crying and complaining about "segregation", "parallel cultures" etc. when something happens (such as the mentioned riots, or the gang murder spree in Sweden) a bit cynical. The policies of the Conservative and far-right politicians created the very same problems they are now complaining about. [1]: https://www.spiegel.de/karriere/oecd-eu-studie-besonders-viele-migranten-arbeiten-fuer-niedrigloehne-a-1242825.html https://www.spiegel.de/karriere/oecd-eu-studie-besonders-vie... [2]: https://www.spiegel.de/lebenundlernen/schule/auslaendische-vornamen-migranten-diskriminierung-durch-firmen-bestaetigt-a-960855.html https://www.spiegel.de/lebenundlernen/schule/auslaendische-v... [3]: https://www.bpb.de/politik/innenpolitik/stadt-und-gesellschaft/64391/einfuehrung https://www.bpb.de/politik/innenpolitik/stadt-und-gesellscha...