3 ms·

This paper seems to get posted in most Great Filter discussions now. I don't find it very convincing - or I'm not sure why it is worded so strongly. It seems ul

This paper seems to get posted in most Great Filter discussions now. I don't find it very convincing - or I'm not sure why it is worded so strongly. It seems ultimately like just another opinion piece dressed with a bit more math than the topic usually gets. My statistics chops might just not be up to snuff, but the authors are ultimately just choosing their own numbers (probability distributions in this case) and plugging them in like everyone else. We still don't know the values of those parameters. The Fermi paradox exists only given "optimistic" guesses for those parameters. The authors choose "pessimistic" distributions and declare the problem "dissolved".

exdsq 5y ago
Sandberg and Ord are based at the same institute as Bostrom who popularized the Great Filter, if that has any effect on your opinion of the piece. They tend to work on pretty wacky things mind you, I had a discussion with Sandberg on whole brain emulation once and Ord champions donating to fairly sci-fi sounding charitable organizations (including his own, the future of humanities institute).
jcranmer 5y ago
The problem I personally have with the Fermi paradox is that it essentially works if you assume that every non-zero probability is one, and justify that with there being enough chances for life to get going that it's bound to happen. Except... there really isn't all that much slack. Another point that I don't see addressed much is the possibility that interstellar travel may just simply be impossible: that building machines that can travel to other stars, let alone ones that are capable of hosting a colonization process, are just simply not within the realm of materials that can actually exist.
- cout 5y ago
  FTL travel may well be impossible but what could possibly make sub-light-speed interstellar travel impossible?

exdsq 5y ago

Sandberg and Ord are based at the same institute as Bostrom who popularized the Great Filter, if that has any effect on your opinion of the piece. They tend to work on pretty wacky things mind you, I had a discussion with Sandberg on whole brain emulation once and Ord champions donating to fairly sci-fi sounding charitable organizations (including his own, the future of humanities institute).

jcranmer 5y ago

The problem I personally have with the Fermi paradox is that it essentially works if you assume that every non-zero probability is one, and justify that with there being enough chances for life to get going that it's bound to happen. Except... there really isn't all that much slack. Another point that I don't see addressed much is the possibility that interstellar travel may just simply be impossible: that building machines that can travel to other stars, let alone ones that are capable of hosting a colonization process, are just simply not within the realm of materials that can actually exist.

cout 5y ago
FTL travel may well be impossible but what could possibly make sub-light-speed interstellar travel impossible?