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"Dissolving the Fermi Paradox": https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 >The expectation that the universe should be teeming with int
by floxy 5y ago
"Dissolving the Fermi Paradox":
https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404
>The expectation that the universe should be teeming with intelligent life is linked to models like the Drake equation, which suggest that even if the probability of intelligent life developing at a given site is small, the sheer multitude of possible sites should nonetheless yield a large number of potentially observable civilizations. We show that this conflict arises from the use of Drake-like equations, which implicitly assume certainty regarding highly uncertain parameters. We examine these parameters, incorporating models of chemical and genetic transitions on paths to the origin of life, and show that extant scientific knowledge corresponds to uncertainties that span multiple orders of magnitude. This makes a stark difference.
- chairhairair 5y agoThis paper seems to get posted in most Great Filter discussions now. I don't find it very convincing - or I'm not sure why it is worded so strongly. It seems ultimately like just another opinion piece dressed with a bit more math than the topic usually gets. My statistics chops might just not be up to snuff, but the authors are ultimately just choosing their own numbers (probability distributions in this case) and plugging them in like everyone else. We still don't know the values of those parameters. The Fermi paradox exists only given "optimistic" guesses for those parameters. The authors choose "pessimistic" distributions and declare the problem "dissolved".
- exdsq 5y agoSandberg and Ord are based at the same institute as Bostrom who popularized the Great Filter, if that has any effect on your opinion of the piece. They tend to work on pretty wacky things mind you, I had a discussion with Sandberg on whole brain emulation once and Ord champions donating to fairly sci-fi sounding charitable organizations (including his own, the future of humanities institute).
- jcranmer 5y agoThe problem I personally have with the Fermi paradox is that it essentially works if you assume that every non-zero probability is one, and justify that with there being enough chances for life to get going that it's bound to happen. Except... there really isn't all that much slack. Another point that I don't see addressed much is the possibility that interstellar travel may just simply be impossible: that building machines that can travel to other stars, let alone ones that are capable of hosting a colonization process, are just simply not within the realm of materials that can actually exist.
- cout 5y agoFTL travel may well be impossible but what could possibly make sub-light-speed interstellar travel impossible?