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The simpler explanation for the disparity between US GDP and stocks is that the stock valuations are inflated. The market has corrected many times in the past.
by mleonhard 5y ago
The simpler explanation for the disparity between US GDP and stocks is that the stock valuations are inflated. The market has corrected many times in the past. The article did not explain why the current bubble is different from previous ones.
The article starts out with a mis-labeled graph. It says "For example, public US equities now represent about 200% of US GDP, which is an all-time high:" but the graph actually shows value of US equities in dollars. Here is the actual graph showing it in percentage of GDP:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01USA156NWDB https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01USA156NWDB
You can see that the stock market reached 146% in 2000 and 137% in 2007 before previous crashes. In 2017 it was at 153%. Presumably the author's 200% number is correct, but it's still not much higher than previous peaks.
I expect the article contains other similar errors.