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No… Your claims are typical of how people talk during peak bubbles. It's very similar to how people talked about buying any tech IPO stock in 1999, even when th
by Liron 5y ago
No… Your claims are typical of how people talk during peak bubbles. It's very similar to how people talked about buying any tech IPO stock in 1999, even when the companies had hopeless business models. The way I expect they'll get disproved is simply when the market cycle turns. Right now there's a powerful illusion that asset prices have become unmoored from expected returns, but at some point macroeconomic conditions change and the demand to liquidate the assets becomes significantly higher than the demand to keep buying them at their previous prices. Like if S&P P/E multiples begin a steady slide from 30 to 15 due to less liquidity in the economy, everyone's stock portfolio will feel like a bloodbath. In such an environment, demand for all these crazy coins also dries up and prices plummet (so much for being a "store of value"), since there are no cashflows that reward the purchasers and set a floor on the price; it's entirely - as you say - a function of the current “hype” i.e. buy-side demand level.