4 ms·

There have already been real world basic income experiments with similar outcomes

by kevingadd 5y ago

HPsquared 5y ago
They have the same problem: the participants know it's only an experiment. They know it's temporary.
- alkonaut 5y ago
  If someone seriously wanted to run an experiment/trial it would need to be on the scale of a medium sized city and a decade before I’d be willing to draw any conclusions at all.
pc86 5y ago
The fact that properly done experiments have the same outcome doesn't mean that these "let's go to the psych department from 1-4 this afternoon to get a $50 gift card" pseudo-experiments hold any real value.
CaptainNegative 5y ago
If you're referring to longer-term experiments, do they show actual statistical significance? One of the two I've read through, the UBC experiment, showed a similar outcome but was only significant at the p≈0.13 or p≈0.24 level, depending on the precise statement of the null hypothesis, which is not particularly enthralling. The Stockton one I recall showing something similar but don't have the precise numbers for.
missedthecue 5y ago
If I'm receiving $1000 a month for a six month program run by a university research group, which states very clearly that the program will end after six months, I'm not going to go quit my job. That's the problem with these "studies". They are completely different from a permanent government program. They can't tell you the impact on inflation, the impact on the labor market, or if it is affordable over the long term.
- fma 5y ago
  20+ year year old permanent program https://www.wired.com/story/free-money-the-surprising-effects-of-a-basic-income-supplied-by-government/ https://www.wired.com/story/free-money-the-surprising-effect...
  - KerryJones 5y ago
    Paywalled, anyone have another link?
  - sintaxi 5y ago
    Again, inflation isn't accounted for.
  - Aunche 5y ago
    Obviously, receiving free money is better than not receiving free money. There's nothing surprising about that. The question is where this money will come from. You can't support universal basic income from casinos or oil wealth, both of which have major negative externalities to boot.
  - missedthecue 5y ago
    This is functionally no different than dividends paid by a company to its shareholders (although this Casino enjoys a local state-sanctioned monopoly, and the shareholder is the tribe council, so it is slightly different, but economically similar). UBI on the other hand is done by taxing ourselves to pay ourselves, or worse, printing to pay ourselves.
  - faet 5y ago
    >Even in Cherokee country, where the additional income is quite sizable, the payments are not enough to live on >The Alaska Permanent Fund has been giving $1,000 to $2,000 a year to its citizens for decades Neither of these are amounts to not work on. Many people quit working after reaching a specific "UBI". Either through social security or retirement/investment accounts. This is also the goal for many folks such as FIRE.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
KerryJones 5y ago
Can you show some of these? My research has shown the opposite

There have already been real world basic income experiments with similar outcomes

HPsquared 5y ago

They have the same problem: the participants know it's only an experiment. They know it's temporary.

alkonaut 5y ago
If someone seriously wanted to run an experiment/trial it would need to be on the scale of a medium sized city and a decade before I’d be willing to draw any conclusions at all.

pc86 5y ago

The fact that properly done experiments have the same outcome doesn't mean that these "let's go to the psych department from 1-4 this afternoon to get a $50 gift card" pseudo-experiments hold any real value.

CaptainNegative 5y ago

If you're referring to longer-term experiments, do they show actual statistical significance? One of the two I've read through, the UBC experiment, showed a similar outcome but was only significant at the p≈0.13 or p≈0.24 level, depending on the precise statement of the null hypothesis, which is not particularly enthralling. The Stockton one I recall showing something similar but don't have the precise numbers for.

missedthecue 5y ago

If I'm receiving $1000 a month for a six month program run by a university research group, which states very clearly that the program will end after six months, I'm not going to go quit my job. That's the problem with these "studies". They are completely different from a permanent government program. They can't tell you the impact on inflation, the impact on the labor market, or if it is affordable over the long term.

fma 5y ago
20+ year year old permanent program https://www.wired.com/story/free-money-the-surprising-effects-of-a-basic-income-supplied-by-government/ https://www.wired.com/story/free-money-the-surprising-effect...
- KerryJones 5y ago
  Paywalled, anyone have another link?
- sintaxi 5y ago
  Again, inflation isn't accounted for.
- Aunche 5y ago
  Obviously, receiving free money is better than not receiving free money. There's nothing surprising about that. The question is where this money will come from. You can't support universal basic income from casinos or oil wealth, both of which have major negative externalities to boot.
- missedthecue 5y ago
  This is functionally no different than dividends paid by a company to its shareholders (although this Casino enjoys a local state-sanctioned monopoly, and the shareholder is the tribe council, so it is slightly different, but economically similar). UBI on the other hand is done by taxing ourselves to pay ourselves, or worse, printing to pay ourselves.
- faet 5y ago
  >Even in Cherokee country, where the additional income is quite sizable, the payments are not enough to live on >The Alaska Permanent Fund has been giving $1,000 to $2,000 a year to its citizens for decades Neither of these are amounts to not work on. Many people quit working after reaching a specific "UBI". Either through social security or retirement/investment accounts. This is also the goal for many folks such as FIRE.
asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago

KerryJones 5y ago

Can you show some of these? My research has shown the opposite