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With this definition my guess is there is likely to be some manipulation. But as BTC is not regulated by the SEC I personally do not see a major problem with it

by ptero 5y ago

With this definition my guess is there is likely to be some manipulation. But as BTC is not regulated by the SEC I personally do not see a major problem with it, either. My guess is that most people that I know that buy BTC, either directly or via some holding schema, do it for the speculation and in this environment they should expect other players to use any method available to them which is not explicitly prohibited. I would treat it like a poker game, where some action happens outside the strict definition of the gameplay (reading facial expressions, probing reactions, etc.). Just my 2c.

mbesto 5y ago
> My guess is that most people that I know that buy BTC, either directly or via some holding schema, do it for the speculation I think you're right. But then isn't it essentially just a digital form a gold bar with less utility?
- ptero 5y ago
  I think the vast majority of the people buying gold bars (or their digital equivalents, like shares of physical gold holding funds) do this to hedge a variety of life risks and value a relatively low volatility. Gold prices do fluctuate, but over the long term (decades and centuries) an ounce of gold generally held its inflation-adjusted value. I suspect buyers of gold would see a lot of problems with BTC price swings and risks that it would be outlawed or restricted in some unknown ways.
  - mbesto 5y ago
    > but over the long term (decades and centuries) an ounce of gold generally held its inflation-adjusted value. You sure about that? You woulda been better off holding SPY for 50 years than gold. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-history-suggests-otherwise.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-h... https://www.wsj.com/articles/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-what-the-past-50-years-teaches-us-11628283272 https://www.wsj.com/articles/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-what... Now if you're talking about centuries then sure, but thats a pretty much impossible comparison to make since the advent of alternative investing strategies.
    - ptero 5y ago
      > You sure about that? You woulda been better off holding SPY for 50 years than gold. Holding its value in inflation-adjusted terms is very different than getting the highest return. I think most gold investors want the first and ignore the second: if I want profits, holding a piece of metal is the last thing I would do long-term; no question there. The links you posted did not convince me, sorry (no offense). Yes, you can pick a 5-10 year period when gold did very poorly compared to inflation (and vice versa). But the value drop is not huge. And long term, if you look at food, clothes, housing, etc. you will find that they cost roughly the same in gold 100 years ago as they do today. When I wrote that gold held its value I meant exactly that: preservation of value. For me (and I am not claiming that this is a universal approach), physical gold is a catastrophic risk protection. I have seen, twice, the currency of the country where I grew up become worthless over a pretty short term: a bill that would be sufficient for a vacation earlier would not buy a loaf of bread anymore. And 5 years earlier I would never have thought it possible. So I am perfectly happy to put 1-2% of my net worth into gold. If fit hits the shan, it could buy my family a passage and some time of living expenses somewhere quiet and far away; if it does not, my grandkids can laugh about their crazy old man while enjoying most of the value that I originally put into it.
      - mbesto 5y ago
        > When I wrote that gold held its value I meant exactly that: preservation of value. Re-read the articles. If you're looking for short/mid term inflation protection (5~10 years) then gold doesn't hold (unless you happen to get lucky for that period over a 100 year period). If you're looking for long term inflation protection (50+ years) then it doesn't either. If your assumption is that gold is valuable because it stood the test of time during the 1700's and 1800's then > If fit hits the shan, it could buy my family a passage and some time of living expenses somewhere quiet and far away If shit really hits the fan, you wouldn't be able to convert to a currency that you could actually live on so this point is moot. > I have seen, twice, the currency of the country where I grew up become worthless over a pretty short term This context makes more sense than anything else. I'm talking about USD here.
        5y ago

by ptero 5y ago

mbesto 5y ago

> My guess is that most people that I know that buy BTC, either directly or via some holding schema, do it for the speculation I think you're right. But then isn't it essentially just a digital form a gold bar with less utility?

ptero 5y ago
I think the vast majority of the people buying gold bars (or their digital equivalents, like shares of physical gold holding funds) do this to hedge a variety of life risks and value a relatively low volatility. Gold prices do fluctuate, but over the long term (decades and centuries) an ounce of gold generally held its inflation-adjusted value. I suspect buyers of gold would see a lot of problems with BTC price swings and risks that it would be outlawed or restricted in some unknown ways.
- mbesto 5y ago
  > but over the long term (decades and centuries) an ounce of gold generally held its inflation-adjusted value. You sure about that? You woulda been better off holding SPY for 50 years than gold. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-history-suggests-otherwise.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-h... https://www.wsj.com/articles/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-what-the-past-50-years-teaches-us-11628283272 https://www.wsj.com/articles/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-what... Now if you're talking about centuries then sure, but thats a pretty much impossible comparison to make since the advent of alternative investing strategies.
  - ptero 5y ago
    > You sure about that? You woulda been better off holding SPY for 50 years than gold. Holding its value in inflation-adjusted terms is very different than getting the highest return. I think most gold investors want the first and ignore the second: if I want profits, holding a piece of metal is the last thing I would do long-term; no question there. The links you posted did not convince me, sorry (no offense). Yes, you can pick a 5-10 year period when gold did very poorly compared to inflation (and vice versa). But the value drop is not huge. And long term, if you look at food, clothes, housing, etc. you will find that they cost roughly the same in gold 100 years ago as they do today. When I wrote that gold held its value I meant exactly that: preservation of value. For me (and I am not claiming that this is a universal approach), physical gold is a catastrophic risk protection. I have seen, twice, the currency of the country where I grew up become worthless over a pretty short term: a bill that would be sufficient for a vacation earlier would not buy a loaf of bread anymore. And 5 years earlier I would never have thought it possible. So I am perfectly happy to put 1-2% of my net worth into gold. If fit hits the shan, it could buy my family a passage and some time of living expenses somewhere quiet and far away; if it does not, my grandkids can laugh about their crazy old man while enjoying most of the value that I originally put into it.
    - mbesto 5y ago
      > When I wrote that gold held its value I meant exactly that: preservation of value. Re-read the articles. If you're looking for short/mid term inflation protection (5~10 years) then gold doesn't hold (unless you happen to get lucky for that period over a 100 year period). If you're looking for long term inflation protection (50+ years) then it doesn't either. If your assumption is that gold is valuable because it stood the test of time during the 1700's and 1800's then > If fit hits the shan, it could buy my family a passage and some time of living expenses somewhere quiet and far away If shit really hits the fan, you wouldn't be able to convert to a currency that you could actually live on so this point is moot. > I have seen, twice, the currency of the country where I grew up become worthless over a pretty short term This context makes more sense than anything else. I'm talking about USD here.
      - 5y ago