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He knows more than I do, is surrounded by people smarter than I am and has a track record of success and overcoming failures. If I thought I shouldn't listen to

He knows more than I do, is surrounded by people smarter than I am and has a track record of success and overcoming failures. If I thought I shouldn't listen to Elon Musk because I thought I knew better, then I think my chances of understanding anything about this would be greatly diminished.

root_axis 5y ago
He has some amazing successes, but also has a terrible track record in terms of what he says vs what he actually delivers, he is more often way off the mark than he is accurate. https://www.elonmusk.today/ https://www.elonmusk.today/
- mwattsun 5y ago
  This is funny. He's a promoter and a salesman. I disagree with the tag line "Like Donald Trump, But For Nerds". Musk actually hires and surrounds himself with brilliant people, Trump not so much
  - root_axis 5y ago
    Agreed on the Trump characterization.
ahtihn 5y ago
> He knows more than I do What do you base this on? I mean, how are you assessing his level of knowledge in this domain?
- mwattsun 5y ago
  > "I think I have a pretty deep understanding of what money actually is on a practical day-to-day basis, because of PayPal." PayPal is a thing I actually use and it works well. He knows more than I do, which is not saying much, but I'm trying to learn. If Hacker News says he's doesn't know anything about crypto, that's a piece of information I can stick in my notes to consider.
ceejayoz 5y ago
> He knows more than I do, is surrounded by people smarter than I am and has a track record of success and overcoming failures. He's also got a track history of being massively wrong at times on things that aren't inside his wheelhouse, like confidently predicting the end of COVID by April 2020.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- mwattsun 5y ago
  I'm not here to defend Elon Musk, but since he is tentatively experimenting with accepting crypto as payment for some of his products, I assume crypto is in his wheelhouse
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    That's a bit like saying having COVID cases in his factories makes him an expert in epidemiology.
  - everfree 5y ago
    That would be a wrong assumption, I believe. You don't need to know much about crypto to be able to accept it.
    - mwattsun 5y ago
      Hopefully, one of his reports knows something about it
- breck 5y ago
  > like confidently predicting the end of COVID by April 2020. I'm guessing you are referring to this Tweet, which indeed was very wrong "Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April": https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960 But other than that, I would say he's been ~90% right about COVID. Much more accurate than our main media organizations. This hit piece on Forbes lists 5 times he was wrong, but in fact he was right in 4 out of 5 of those, https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/03/13/elon-musks-false-covid-predictions-a-timeline/?sh=a6e61645b6d2 https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/03/13/elon-musks-...
wonderwonder 5y ago
This is a terrible way to go through life. Just because someone is successful at X does not mean they are in any way knowledgeable in Y. Want to know about something, just read about it yourself or seek the opinion of someone that actually works in the field, don't blindly take the word of someone that is not even from the field in question. Doge is a joke crypto currency, and I don't mean that as an insult I mean it was literally started as a joke by the developers to make fun of the crazy crypto speculation. Elon latched onto it as part of a joke and I think it just spiraled out of his control and he does not want to admit to being out of his league. He even alluded to this in his SNL skit. Would you go to a world renown brain surgeon for advice on what is wrong with your car engine? Of course not but the brain surgeon is likely a very smart person surrounded by other very smart people. Car engines are just not their fields of expertise, much like cryptocurrencies are not Elon's. Elon is a meme lord, and goes to where the social media attention is. I am a huge fan of the guy but pretty much ignore everything he says outside of renewables and space because that's his wheel house. Don't get trapped in cults of personality. Want to understand crypto, follow the people that are building in it. I recommend: https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin https://twitter.com/aantonop https://twitter.com/aantonop Someone that understands crypto second to none but acts like he does not while delivering incredible content: https://twitter.com/cobie https://twitter.com/cobie want someone smart that lives in the space that is anti - crypto: https://twitter.com/nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb
- mwattsun 5y ago
  You are misunderstanding me > don't blindly take the word What makes you think I am? Elon's opinion is a data point > he does not want to admit to being out of his league You don't know this > Don't get trapped in cults of personality I've made many criticisms of Musk, especially his pronouncements about self-driving cars I think you're mistaking me for a fanboi. I'm just gathering information. I do follow Vitalik Buterin, but there are plenty of criticisms of his tech too. "The Ethereum virtual machine has the equivalent computational power of an Atari 2600 from the 1970s except it runs on casino chips that cost $500" Steven Diehl - Web3 is Bullshit Thanks for the links. I'll add them to my list. I just really got serious about this subject so I started compiling a list of skeptics and enthusiasts who write about it often so I can follow along. Here they are in case you can use them. Skeptics SwiftOnSecurity https://twitter.com/SwiftOnSecurity https://twitter.com/SwiftOnSecurity Nicholas Weaver https://twitter.com/ncweaver https://twitter.com/ncweaver Molly White https://twitter.com/molly0xFFF https://twitter.com/molly0xFFF Dare Obasanjo https://twitter.com/Carnage4Life https://twitter.com/Carnage4Life Stephen Diehl https://twitter.com/smdiehl https://twitter.com/smdiehl Enthusiasts Ser Jeff Garzik https://twitter.com/jgarzik https://twitter.com/jgarzik Marc Andreessen https://twitter.com/pmarca https://twitter.com/pmarca Bram Cohen https://twitter.com/bramcohen https://twitter.com/bramcohen jack(@jack) https://twitter.com/jack https://twitter.com/jack suzuha https://twitter.com/dystopiabreaker https://twitter.com/dystopiabreaker cdixon.eth https://twitter.com/cdixon https://twitter.com/cdixon

root_axis 5y ago

He has some amazing successes, but also has a terrible track record in terms of what he says vs what he actually delivers, he is more often way off the mark than he is accurate. https://www.elonmusk.today/ https://www.elonmusk.today/

mwattsun 5y ago
This is funny. He's a promoter and a salesman. I disagree with the tag line "Like Donald Trump, But For Nerds". Musk actually hires and surrounds himself with brilliant people, Trump not so much
- root_axis 5y ago
  Agreed on the Trump characterization.

ahtihn 5y ago

> He knows more than I do What do you base this on? I mean, how are you assessing his level of knowledge in this domain?

mwattsun 5y ago
> "I think I have a pretty deep understanding of what money actually is on a practical day-to-day basis, because of PayPal." PayPal is a thing I actually use and it works well. He knows more than I do, which is not saying much, but I'm trying to learn. If Hacker News says he's doesn't know anything about crypto, that's a piece of information I can stick in my notes to consider.

ceejayoz 5y ago

> He knows more than I do, is surrounded by people smarter than I am and has a track record of success and overcoming failures. He's also got a track history of being massively wrong at times on things that aren't inside his wheelhouse, like confidently predicting the end of COVID by April 2020.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
mwattsun 5y ago
I'm not here to defend Elon Musk, but since he is tentatively experimenting with accepting crypto as payment for some of his products, I assume crypto is in his wheelhouse
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  That's a bit like saying having COVID cases in his factories makes him an expert in epidemiology.
- everfree 5y ago
  That would be a wrong assumption, I believe. You don't need to know much about crypto to be able to accept it.
  - mwattsun 5y ago
    Hopefully, one of his reports knows something about it
breck 5y ago
> like confidently predicting the end of COVID by April 2020. I'm guessing you are referring to this Tweet, which indeed was very wrong "Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April": https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960 But other than that, I would say he's been ~90% right about COVID. Much more accurate than our main media organizations. This hit piece on Forbes lists 5 times he was wrong, but in fact he was right in 4 out of 5 of those, https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/03/13/elon-musks-false-covid-predictions-a-timeline/?sh=a6e61645b6d2 https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/03/13/elon-musks-...

wonderwonder 5y ago

This is a terrible way to go through life. Just because someone is successful at X does not mean they are in any way knowledgeable in Y. Want to know about something, just read about it yourself or seek the opinion of someone that actually works in the field, don't blindly take the word of someone that is not even from the field in question. Doge is a joke crypto currency, and I don't mean that as an insult I mean it was literally started as a joke by the developers to make fun of the crazy crypto speculation. Elon latched onto it as part of a joke and I think it just spiraled out of his control and he does not want to admit to being out of his league. He even alluded to this in his SNL skit. Would you go to a world renown brain surgeon for advice on what is wrong with your car engine? Of course not but the brain surgeon is likely a very smart person surrounded by other very smart people. Car engines are just not their fields of expertise, much like cryptocurrencies are not Elon's. Elon is a meme lord, and goes to where the social media attention is. I am a huge fan of the guy but pretty much ignore everything he says outside of renewables and space because that's his wheel house. Don't get trapped in cults of personality. Want to understand crypto, follow the people that are building in it. I recommend: https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin https://twitter.com/aantonop https://twitter.com/aantonop Someone that understands crypto second to none but acts like he does not while delivering incredible content: https://twitter.com/cobie https://twitter.com/cobie want someone smart that lives in the space that is anti - crypto: https://twitter.com/nntaleb https://twitter.com/nntaleb

mwattsun 5y ago
You are misunderstanding me > don't blindly take the word What makes you think I am? Elon's opinion is a data point > he does not want to admit to being out of his league You don't know this > Don't get trapped in cults of personality I've made many criticisms of Musk, especially his pronouncements about self-driving cars I think you're mistaking me for a fanboi. I'm just gathering information. I do follow Vitalik Buterin, but there are plenty of criticisms of his tech too. "The Ethereum virtual machine has the equivalent computational power of an Atari 2600 from the 1970s except it runs on casino chips that cost $500" Steven Diehl - Web3 is Bullshit Thanks for the links. I'll add them to my list. I just really got serious about this subject so I started compiling a list of skeptics and enthusiasts who write about it often so I can follow along. Here they are in case you can use them. Skeptics SwiftOnSecurity https://twitter.com/SwiftOnSecurity https://twitter.com/SwiftOnSecurity Nicholas Weaver https://twitter.com/ncweaver https://twitter.com/ncweaver Molly White https://twitter.com/molly0xFFF https://twitter.com/molly0xFFF Dare Obasanjo https://twitter.com/Carnage4Life https://twitter.com/Carnage4Life Stephen Diehl https://twitter.com/smdiehl https://twitter.com/smdiehl Enthusiasts Ser Jeff Garzik https://twitter.com/jgarzik https://twitter.com/jgarzik Marc Andreessen https://twitter.com/pmarca https://twitter.com/pmarca Bram Cohen https://twitter.com/bramcohen https://twitter.com/bramcohen jack(@jack) https://twitter.com/jack https://twitter.com/jack suzuha https://twitter.com/dystopiabreaker https://twitter.com/dystopiabreaker cdixon.eth https://twitter.com/cdixon https://twitter.com/cdixon