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I mean, I think it really all comes down to numbers, and also agreeing on reasonable definitions of what words like "over now" mean. That being said, vaccines

I mean, I think it really all comes down to numbers, and also agreeing on reasonable definitions of what words like "over now" mean. That being said, vaccines have stopped effectively ended viruses before, e.g. polio (again, for counter examples please refer to my comment about reasonable definitions). Therefore it's clear that vaccines can achieve this effect, and really what lies in question is how hard is it? So, I think there are people who study this stuff, and I think it's also probably pretty complicated because there are a lot of variables as well as unknowns. E.g. how effective is the vaccine, how contagious is the virus, how does it spread, the incubation period, for how long is it contagious, etc.. Ok, bearing all that in mind saying > No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic. Is itself a bizarre assertion. Maybe in your gut it seems that way, but that's not really how we know stuff in real life. The author even said 1.) if there were enough vaccines for everyone for 2.) 3-shots of protection and 3.) if people took them Then the pandemic would be over... I think that more or less makes sense. I'm not saying it's realistic, because #3 seems to be the problem in countries that have enough vaccines for everyone (like the USA). In any case, he's a doctor, I think he knows more than you do, I trust his reasoning is based off well-informed assumptions, and you're just convinced that it could never happen. So do you care to elaborate how "No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic."? If 100% of people were vaccinated, would that not end the pandemic? I think it comes down to the numbers, so how do the numbers support your argument?

b112 5y ago
Appealing to authority, is a logical fallacy. He's not right due to credentials. You've glossed over very important parts of my post. I did edit it within 3 minutes of posting, so you may be responding to an alternate. My point is: - the current vaccines do not stop spread due to, and in the vaccinated Everyone agrees on this. - for spread to occur, the virus must replicate, therefore it can mutate even in the vaccinated This is just viral 101. - therefore, current vaccines cannot stop spread and mutation, therefore they cannot stop the pandemic
- gilbetron 5y ago
  You should probably take Viral 101 over again. Vaccines definitely reduce transmission - current vaccines, however, are barely, if at all, effective against Omicron. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... IF we had been able to vaccinate 90%+ of the world by the start of last summer, this pandemic had a good chance of ending. Delta made it much more difficult, and Omicron crushed that option. "it's possible for a variant to come out that gets around all vaccinations every time, so therefore vaccines can't stop the pandemic" means that you definitely failed Viral 101.
  - b112 5y ago
    You should probably take Viral 101 over again. Vaccines definitely reduce transmission This is a third order effect, not first. They do not reduce transmission, instead they increase immune response, thus reducing replication, thus reducing transmission. This is a vital point here. Second, please take care. At no point did I ever say "vaccines don't reduce transmission". That is a general statement, mine was specific, about current covid vaccines only. Covid is a unique beast, able to spread for weeks without creating a strong immune response, and therefore, symptoms. Other viruses seem to spread much later, and typically only when symptoms are shown. This is what makes covid so spreadable, dangerous. It may also be why successful spread is difficult to stop even when vaccinated. After all, this happened with delta too. EDIT: going to add here. COVID is in mice, deer, dogs and cats as a minimum, and other mammals are strongly suspected. A recent HN story cited a paper, where a researcher believes covid jumped from human to mouse, mutated to omicron, and jumped back to human. So, regardless of the spread and mutation happening in the currently vaccinated, we have spread and mutation in other mammals. Including ones in our homes. Think on that a bit, please people.
    - gilbetron 5y ago
      > This is a third order effect, not first. They do not reduce transmission, instead they increase immune response, thus reducing replication, thus reducing transmission. That's literally what is meant by "vaccines reduce transmission". Vaccines are not some nanobots that form a forcefield around your body preventing viruses from getting to you.
peteradio 5y ago
What exactly is the point of an unattainable hypothetical like that? Its not falsifiable and therefore totally unscientific.
blip54321 5y ago
The numbers say that no amount of vaccinated people would end the pandemic. Vaccines reduce R0 and are worth it, but in isolation, don't reduce it below 1 for omicron. It's possible future vaccines will, and it's possible future omicrons will circumvent those vaccines. I think universal N95/KN95/KF94 masks would bring R0 below 1 (even without vaccines), but with animal reservoirs, even that's no longer a long-term viable strategy. The trillion dollar question is long COVID and impacts of COVID on the brain, both with and without vaccines.

b112 5y ago

Appealing to authority, is a logical fallacy. He's not right due to credentials. You've glossed over very important parts of my post. I did edit it within 3 minutes of posting, so you may be responding to an alternate. My point is: - the current vaccines do not stop spread due to, and in the vaccinated Everyone agrees on this. - for spread to occur, the virus must replicate, therefore it can mutate even in the vaccinated This is just viral 101. - therefore, current vaccines cannot stop spread and mutation, therefore they cannot stop the pandemic

gilbetron 5y ago
You should probably take Viral 101 over again. Vaccines definitely reduce transmission - current vaccines, however, are barely, if at all, effective against Omicron. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... IF we had been able to vaccinate 90%+ of the world by the start of last summer, this pandemic had a good chance of ending. Delta made it much more difficult, and Omicron crushed that option. "it's possible for a variant to come out that gets around all vaccinations every time, so therefore vaccines can't stop the pandemic" means that you definitely failed Viral 101.
- b112 5y ago
  You should probably take Viral 101 over again. Vaccines definitely reduce transmission This is a third order effect, not first. They do not reduce transmission, instead they increase immune response, thus reducing replication, thus reducing transmission. This is a vital point here. Second, please take care. At no point did I ever say "vaccines don't reduce transmission". That is a general statement, mine was specific, about current covid vaccines only. Covid is a unique beast, able to spread for weeks without creating a strong immune response, and therefore, symptoms. Other viruses seem to spread much later, and typically only when symptoms are shown. This is what makes covid so spreadable, dangerous. It may also be why successful spread is difficult to stop even when vaccinated. After all, this happened with delta too. EDIT: going to add here. COVID is in mice, deer, dogs and cats as a minimum, and other mammals are strongly suspected. A recent HN story cited a paper, where a researcher believes covid jumped from human to mouse, mutated to omicron, and jumped back to human. So, regardless of the spread and mutation happening in the currently vaccinated, we have spread and mutation in other mammals. Including ones in our homes. Think on that a bit, please people.
  - gilbetron 5y ago
    > This is a third order effect, not first. They do not reduce transmission, instead they increase immune response, thus reducing replication, thus reducing transmission. That's literally what is meant by "vaccines reduce transmission". Vaccines are not some nanobots that form a forcefield around your body preventing viruses from getting to you.

peteradio 5y ago

What exactly is the point of an unattainable hypothetical like that? Its not falsifiable and therefore totally unscientific.

blip54321 5y ago

The numbers say that no amount of vaccinated people would end the pandemic. Vaccines reduce R0 and are worth it, but in isolation, don't reduce it below 1 for omicron. It's possible future vaccines will, and it's possible future omicrons will circumvent those vaccines. I think universal N95/KN95/KF94 masks would bring R0 below 1 (even without vaccines), but with animal reservoirs, even that's no longer a long-term viable strategy. The trillion dollar question is long COVID and impacts of COVID on the brain, both with and without vaccines.