4 ms·

The “only 1% will die” argument, sure I remember that one from early days. But hospitals are currently overwhelmed with mostly voluntarily unvaccinated people.

by pstoll 5y ago

The “only 1% will die” argument, sure I remember that one from early days. But hospitals are currently overwhelmed with mostly voluntarily unvaccinated people. My advice is don’t break your arm or get in a car accident or have a heart attack right now - it could be lethal because health care resources are at a breaking point (in the US).

Lammy 5y ago
Truly a novel situation we find ourselves in: https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%3Aoverwhelmed+before%3A2018 https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%... https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%3A%22breaking+point%22+before%3A2018 https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%...
- pstoll 5y ago
  I think activating “crisis standards of care” is a bit more substantial and worrying than any previous claims of being simply “overwhelmed” which could be subjective. This is what we are seeing here in the US. https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%3A%22crisis+standards+of+care%22 https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%...
- javagram 5y ago
  Check the death statistics instead of headlines and you'll see it truly is a novel situation - no previous year saw as many Americans die as 2020 and 2021. And excess deaths correspond closely to regions that saw high reported COVID-19 deaths, indicating "COVID-19 deaths" are people who would not have died had they not been infected with and killed by COVID-19. 2022 death rates are still high, nearing 2000 people killed by COVID-19 daily. We can hope that due to the death toll hitting mostly the unvaccinated, plus omicron being a somewhat milder than Delta, we won't possibly be able to hit the same high death rates all year long.
  - Lammy 5y ago
    No previous year saw as many Americans live as 2020 and 2021 either :) https://www.census.gov/popclock/ https://www.census.gov/popclock/ https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?tid=PEPNATMONTHLY2021.NA_EST2021_POP&hidePreview=false https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?tid=PEPNATMONTHLY2021.N...
    - Eldt 5y ago
      Good thing births offset deaths :)
    - javagram 5y ago
      That data is irrelevant to my point. Compare deaths from 2015 through 2021 on a bar chart and the discontinuity is obvious even to the naked eye. See the charts shown on https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/04/25/is-it-really-true-that-the-u-s-death-rate-in-2020-was-the-highest-above-normal-since-the-early-1900s-even-surpassing-the-calamity-of-the-1918-flu-pandemic/ https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/04/25/is-it-real... for a simple visual example.
twofornone 5y ago
I don't think this is as widespread as people believe. Certain locales tend to be overwhelmed at any given time, but I don't think that's the case for the majority of hospitals in the country. Unfortunately I don't have any statistics. >But hospitals are currently overwhelmed with mostly voluntarily unvaccinated people This has been the narrative for a while now, but as vaccination rates increase the ratio of vaccinated:unvaccinated hospitalized patients is approaching and surpassing parity. And some not so recent government data from the UK[0] (I haven't seen any media report on it) suggests that for a number of age ranges, vaccinated individuals have a similar death rate per person-year, i.e. vaccines are not doing nearly as much as claimed. This data is pre omicron. 0. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31october2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde... - check table 7 in the spreadsheet. Maybe I'm misinterpreting something?
- pstoll 5y ago
  > as vaccination rates increase the ratio of vaccinated:unvaccinated hospitalized patients is approaching and surpassing parity. Parity as in 1:1? Because I’m pretty sure raw counts and case rates are still nowhere near parity. You mentioned data by age ranges as well. This commentary on a new study is pretty good: https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1482501951065661440?s=21 https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1482501951065661440?s=21 Pointing to this recent study: https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#vaccine-outcomes https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm...
Proven 5y ago
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stevenicr 5y ago
I am under the impression that many hospitals are overwhelmed because they have a lack of nurses, not a lack of rooms. lacking nurses because they were already sparsely hired in efforts to maximize profits over patient comfort pre-pandemic, of those that were working the field; many have left their job to make 5 times more money as a traveling nurse elsewhere (?) - many have left the job because they find it too stressful for the benefits it offers them - and many are out sick. Does anyone think that hospitals are going to raise what they pay nurses now? are we going to invest in nursing in ways that gets lots more to choose it as a career path because X and Y things are going to be so much greater for them in the future? I'm not holding my breathe that hospitals are going to change the pay rate for the most missed resource, or that they will hire twice as many as they've had in the past.. and that the future of nursing is going to be any better - so we better hope that treatment pills become a thing.

by pstoll 5y ago

Lammy 5y ago

Truly a novel situation we find ourselves in: https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%3Aoverwhelmed+before%3A2018 https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%... https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%3A%22breaking+point%22+before%3A2018 https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%...

pstoll 5y ago
I think activating “crisis standards of care” is a bit more substantial and worrying than any previous claims of being simply “overwhelmed” which could be subjective. This is what we are seeing here in the US. https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%3A%22crisis+standards+of+care%22 https://www.google.com/search?q=intitle%3Ahospitals+intitle%...
javagram 5y ago
Check the death statistics instead of headlines and you'll see it truly is a novel situation - no previous year saw as many Americans die as 2020 and 2021. And excess deaths correspond closely to regions that saw high reported COVID-19 deaths, indicating "COVID-19 deaths" are people who would not have died had they not been infected with and killed by COVID-19. 2022 death rates are still high, nearing 2000 people killed by COVID-19 daily. We can hope that due to the death toll hitting mostly the unvaccinated, plus omicron being a somewhat milder than Delta, we won't possibly be able to hit the same high death rates all year long.
- Lammy 5y ago
  No previous year saw as many Americans live as 2020 and 2021 either :) https://www.census.gov/popclock/ https://www.census.gov/popclock/ https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?tid=PEPNATMONTHLY2021.NA_EST2021_POP&hidePreview=false https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?tid=PEPNATMONTHLY2021.N...
  - Eldt 5y ago
    Good thing births offset deaths :)
  - javagram 5y ago
    That data is irrelevant to my point. Compare deaths from 2015 through 2021 on a bar chart and the discontinuity is obvious even to the naked eye. See the charts shown on https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/04/25/is-it-really-true-that-the-u-s-death-rate-in-2020-was-the-highest-above-normal-since-the-early-1900s-even-surpassing-the-calamity-of-the-1918-flu-pandemic/ https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/04/25/is-it-real... for a simple visual example.

twofornone 5y ago

I don't think this is as widespread as people believe. Certain locales tend to be overwhelmed at any given time, but I don't think that's the case for the majority of hospitals in the country. Unfortunately I don't have any statistics. >But hospitals are currently overwhelmed with mostly voluntarily unvaccinated people This has been the narrative for a while now, but as vaccination rates increase the ratio of vaccinated:unvaccinated hospitalized patients is approaching and surpassing parity. And some not so recent government data from the UK[0] (I haven't seen any media report on it) suggests that for a number of age ranges, vaccinated individuals have a similar death rate per person-year, i.e. vaccines are not doing nearly as much as claimed. This data is pre omicron. 0. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31october2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde... - check table 7 in the spreadsheet. Maybe I'm misinterpreting something?

pstoll 5y ago
> as vaccination rates increase the ratio of vaccinated:unvaccinated hospitalized patients is approaching and surpassing parity. Parity as in 1:1? Because I’m pretty sure raw counts and case rates are still nowhere near parity. You mentioned data by age ranges as well. This commentary on a new study is pretty good: https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1482501951065661440?s=21 https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1482501951065661440?s=21 Pointing to this recent study: https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#vaccine-outcomes https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm...

Proven 5y ago

[dead]

stevenicr 5y ago

I am under the impression that many hospitals are overwhelmed because they have a lack of nurses, not a lack of rooms. lacking nurses because they were already sparsely hired in efforts to maximize profits over patient comfort pre-pandemic, of those that were working the field; many have left their job to make 5 times more money as a traveling nurse elsewhere (?) - many have left the job because they find it too stressful for the benefits it offers them - and many are out sick. Does anyone think that hospitals are going to raise what they pay nurses now? are we going to invest in nursing in ways that gets lots more to choose it as a career path because X and Y things are going to be so much greater for them in the future? I'm not holding my breathe that hospitals are going to change the pay rate for the most missed resource, or that they will hire twice as many as they've had in the past.. and that the future of nursing is going to be any better - so we better hope that treatment pills become a thing.