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Figure it’s relevant to this thread - Eric Topol (very credentialed medical researcher) does a pretty good overview & summary on how the vaccines are doing. ht

by pstoll 5y ago

Figure it’s relevant to this thread - Eric Topol (very credentialed medical researcher) does a pretty good overview & summary on how the vaccines are doing. https://erictopol.substack.com/p/were-very-lucky https://erictopol.substack.com/p/were-very-lucky

b112 5y ago
If there were enough vaccines for everyone around the world to get the protection equivalent of 3-shots, and people took them, the pandemic would be over now This is a very bizarre assertion. Given that, the vaccinated spread covid, even with no symptoms, vaccination status does not limit spread. No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic. Note that, to spread covid, it must be replicating in the body. Therefore, as it is replicating in the vaccinated, it will continue to mutate and evolve. There will never, ever be an end to the pandemic, due to existing vaccines. Ever.
- elmotri 5y ago
  Maybe the author means covid becoming endemic instead of pandemic. See for example [1]. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59970281 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59970281
- responsivity 5y ago
  Maybe if everyone got it all at once (and before omicron perhaps)? Idk tho these are all hypotheticals
  - lolc 5y ago
    Given that Omicron is assumed to have replicated in an animal population (mice) for a year, we should expect there to be other variants in animals. Even if we managed to vaccinate all humans at the same time, we'd likely see a new breakout a year or so down the line when immunity wanes in the human population. Covd19 has been endemic for two years now. And it will be endemic until we find better vaccines. At that point, we'll probably be ready to wipe out the flu as well.
- asimpletune 5y ago
  I mean, I think it really all comes down to numbers, and also agreeing on reasonable definitions of what words like "over now" mean. That being said, vaccines have stopped effectively ended viruses before, e.g. polio (again, for counter examples please refer to my comment about reasonable definitions). Therefore it's clear that vaccines can achieve this effect, and really what lies in question is how hard is it? So, I think there are people who study this stuff, and I think it's also probably pretty complicated because there are a lot of variables as well as unknowns. E.g. how effective is the vaccine, how contagious is the virus, how does it spread, the incubation period, for how long is it contagious, etc.. Ok, bearing all that in mind saying > No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic. Is itself a bizarre assertion. Maybe in your gut it seems that way, but that's not really how we know stuff in real life. The author even said 1.) if there were enough vaccines for everyone for 2.) 3-shots of protection and 3.) if people took them Then the pandemic would be over... I think that more or less makes sense. I'm not saying it's realistic, because #3 seems to be the problem in countries that have enough vaccines for everyone (like the USA). In any case, he's a doctor, I think he knows more than you do, I trust his reasoning is based off well-informed assumptions, and you're just convinced that it could never happen. So do you care to elaborate how "No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic."? If 100% of people were vaccinated, would that not end the pandemic? I think it comes down to the numbers, so how do the numbers support your argument?
  - b112 5y ago
    Appealing to authority, is a logical fallacy. He's not right due to credentials. You've glossed over very important parts of my post. I did edit it within 3 minutes of posting, so you may be responding to an alternate. My point is: - the current vaccines do not stop spread due to, and in the vaccinated Everyone agrees on this. - for spread to occur, the virus must replicate, therefore it can mutate even in the vaccinated This is just viral 101. - therefore, current vaccines cannot stop spread and mutation, therefore they cannot stop the pandemic
    - gilbetron 5y ago
      You should probably take Viral 101 over again. Vaccines definitely reduce transmission - current vaccines, however, are barely, if at all, effective against Omicron. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... IF we had been able to vaccinate 90%+ of the world by the start of last summer, this pandemic had a good chance of ending. Delta made it much more difficult, and Omicron crushed that option. "it's possible for a variant to come out that gets around all vaccinations every time, so therefore vaccines can't stop the pandemic" means that you definitely failed Viral 101.
- pstoll 5y ago
  No one gets a free pass, for sure, but he’s a pretty qualified thinker of things medical and health. So coming here and calling him out on it should probably warrant a bit more than a “uhn uhn”. (Edited - asimpletune above said it more eloquently than I did!)
  - b112 5y ago
    My comment, agree or not, stated precisely why his logic was flawed. Further, appealing to authority is a logical fallacy. The facts count.
  - peteradio 5y ago
    "pretty qualified thinkers" are putting out all sorts of thought provoking ideas with no intention of being right all the time.
    - pstoll 5y ago
      Sure, perhaps I was inarticulate - he’s a world leading medical researcher who heads up a world leading medical research institution; he is one of the 10 most cited medical researchers in the world. Yadda yadda…
- rsynnott 5y ago
  With universal vaccination and boosting (possibly regular boosting), assuming Omicron stays dominant (which is a big assumption), then it would probably be reasonable to call the pandemic over; you could argue over definitions, but transmission would be significantly slowed, and due to the reduction in severity it probably would no longer be sufficiently serious to be a major concern; we'd go back to the main concern being influenza. Some people would continue to get very sick, but it would be a manageable number. Even quite a small hole in vaccination may be a problem, though; very highly vaccinated countries like Ireland are seeing ICU pressure primarily from the 5% or so of unvaccinated adults.

by pstoll 5y ago

b112 5y ago

If there were enough vaccines for everyone around the world to get the protection equivalent of 3-shots, and people took them, the pandemic would be over now This is a very bizarre assertion. Given that, the vaccinated spread covid, even with no symptoms, vaccination status does not limit spread. No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic. Note that, to spread covid, it must be replicating in the body. Therefore, as it is replicating in the vaccinated, it will continue to mutate and evolve. There will never, ever be an end to the pandemic, due to existing vaccines. Ever.

elmotri 5y ago
Maybe the author means covid becoming endemic instead of pandemic. See for example [1]. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59970281 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59970281
responsivity 5y ago
Maybe if everyone got it all at once (and before omicron perhaps)? Idk tho these are all hypotheticals
- lolc 5y ago
  Given that Omicron is assumed to have replicated in an animal population (mice) for a year, we should expect there to be other variants in animals. Even if we managed to vaccinate all humans at the same time, we'd likely see a new breakout a year or so down the line when immunity wanes in the human population. Covd19 has been endemic for two years now. And it will be endemic until we find better vaccines. At that point, we'll probably be ready to wipe out the flu as well.
asimpletune 5y ago
I mean, I think it really all comes down to numbers, and also agreeing on reasonable definitions of what words like "over now" mean. That being said, vaccines have stopped effectively ended viruses before, e.g. polio (again, for counter examples please refer to my comment about reasonable definitions). Therefore it's clear that vaccines can achieve this effect, and really what lies in question is how hard is it? So, I think there are people who study this stuff, and I think it's also probably pretty complicated because there are a lot of variables as well as unknowns. E.g. how effective is the vaccine, how contagious is the virus, how does it spread, the incubation period, for how long is it contagious, etc.. Ok, bearing all that in mind saying > No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic. Is itself a bizarre assertion. Maybe in your gut it seems that way, but that's not really how we know stuff in real life. The author even said 1.) if there were enough vaccines for everyone for 2.) 3-shots of protection and 3.) if people took them Then the pandemic would be over... I think that more or less makes sense. I'm not saying it's realistic, because #3 seems to be the problem in countries that have enough vaccines for everyone (like the USA). In any case, he's a doctor, I think he knows more than you do, I trust his reasoning is based off well-informed assumptions, and you're just convinced that it could never happen. So do you care to elaborate how "No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic."? If 100% of people were vaccinated, would that not end the pandemic? I think it comes down to the numbers, so how do the numbers support your argument?
- b112 5y ago
  Appealing to authority, is a logical fallacy. He's not right due to credentials. You've glossed over very important parts of my post. I did edit it within 3 minutes of posting, so you may be responding to an alternate. My point is: - the current vaccines do not stop spread due to, and in the vaccinated Everyone agrees on this. - for spread to occur, the virus must replicate, therefore it can mutate even in the vaccinated This is just viral 101. - therefore, current vaccines cannot stop spread and mutation, therefore they cannot stop the pandemic
  - gilbetron 5y ago
    You should probably take Viral 101 over again. Vaccines definitely reduce transmission - current vaccines, however, are barely, if at all, effective against Omicron. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... IF we had been able to vaccinate 90%+ of the world by the start of last summer, this pandemic had a good chance of ending. Delta made it much more difficult, and Omicron crushed that option. "it's possible for a variant to come out that gets around all vaccinations every time, so therefore vaccines can't stop the pandemic" means that you definitely failed Viral 101.
pstoll 5y ago
No one gets a free pass, for sure, but he’s a pretty qualified thinker of things medical and health. So coming here and calling him out on it should probably warrant a bit more than a “uhn uhn”. (Edited - asimpletune above said it more eloquently than I did!)
- b112 5y ago
  My comment, agree or not, stated precisely why his logic was flawed. Further, appealing to authority is a logical fallacy. The facts count.
- peteradio 5y ago
  "pretty qualified thinkers" are putting out all sorts of thought provoking ideas with no intention of being right all the time.
  - pstoll 5y ago
    Sure, perhaps I was inarticulate - he’s a world leading medical researcher who heads up a world leading medical research institution; he is one of the 10 most cited medical researchers in the world. Yadda yadda…
rsynnott 5y ago
With universal vaccination and boosting (possibly regular boosting), assuming Omicron stays dominant (which is a big assumption), then it would probably be reasonable to call the pandemic over; you could argue over definitions, but transmission would be significantly slowed, and due to the reduction in severity it probably would no longer be sufficiently serious to be a major concern; we'd go back to the main concern being influenza. Some people would continue to get very sick, but it would be a manageable number. Even quite a small hole in vaccination may be a problem, though; very highly vaccinated countries like Ireland are seeing ICU pressure primarily from the 5% or so of unvaccinated adults.