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You don't have complete information, so the market may know something about the stock that you don't. Even if you're right, the market can stay irrational longe

• byrneseyeview 18y ago
  That's true. And I may know something about the stock that the market doesn't. It's pretty impractical to make your decisions by finding out that everyone else is wrong, rather than by ensuring that you're right (or as right as you can be). It doesn't scale, either -- AT&T used to have over a million shareholders, and interviewing every one of them about whether Ma Bell was going to raise their dividend next quarter sounds like a real chore. Even if you're right, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. If you're leveraged, yes. If you aren't leveraged, you're going to be solvent forever. And anyway, arguing about the timing obscures the real decision -- I wouldn't discourage someone from pursuing a career because I didn't know whether or not every employer would recognize their talent after the first interview.