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I had a dumb idea about this a while ago - to do a massive completion for coin flipping. Get thousands of entries. Each ‘match’ just involves the two people fl
by jonplackett 5y ago
I had a dumb idea about this a while ago - to do a massive completion for coin flipping.
Get thousands of entries. Each ‘match’ just involves the two people flipping coins to decide the winner.
You make a documentary about it where you ask everyone about their tactics and strategy. Someone has to win all their matches. They will have developed some ‘tactics’ that they probably strongly believe in. Of course we know it’s just completely random.
It’s basically an exposé of survivorship bias.
Probably no one would watch it though…
- _qua 5y agoI think Warren Buffett used this example in one of his investor letters.
- shmageggy 5y agoIt's actually even worse than that though in real life, since (to continue the analogy) winning the first few rounds makes it easier to win subsequent rounds.
- pdimitar 5y agoDepends on the circumstances in the real-life game you're playing but I hear you. From what I've seen, if you win the first N rounds (N=1..20) then you gain critical mass and it becomes harder and harder to fail. So yeah, what you say is based in solid reality in my experience as well.
- rileyphone 5y agoReminds me of the start of “Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead”, great absurdist play. https://www.cusd80.com/cms/lib6/AZ01001175/Centricity/Domain/963/Rosencrantz%20and%20Guildenstern%20Are%20Dead%20full%20text.pdf https://www.cusd80.com/cms/lib6/AZ01001175/Centricity/Domain...
- gnicholas 5y agoThere's a funny youtube video [1] about 10 coin flips in a row. The guy apparently did tons of takes until he got it. The successful take is one in which he alternates HTHT... which makes me think that he was trying for all H, all T, or alternating HT, to make it easier on himself. 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHU-L3BLd_w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHU-L3BLd_w