On the other hand, belief in success is often a prerequisite to putting effort or resources towards a goal. Failure can teach important lessons to those willing

On the other hand, belief in success is often a prerequisite to putting effort or resources towards a goal. Failure can teach important lessons to those willing to learn and adapt. Probability can be an interesting tool for approximating conditions, but ultimately if we are looking to profit from our actions we need to think about things from a deterministic perspective. I agree that a class of ridiculous "prosperity preachers" exists. These people sell a product which is similar to a diet fad. A fantasy people can indulge in without doing hard work or making sacrifices. Most people choose to focus on their successes. They might not list all of their failures. Meanwhile, those who have failed and quit might choose to focus on their failures. Unsolved problems become unsolvable items beyond their control. Themes of unfairness and the unreasonable expectations surrounding them usually follow. If we are to acknowledge survivor's bias, we should also acknowledge "croaker's bias". Just like there is irrationality surrounding prosperity preachers, there is also toxicity surrounding the "can't do", "it is all unfair", "he just got lucky", "because silver spoon" ideology. No effort is required to engage with this toxic ideology's self-fulfilling failure mode.