4 ms·

I don’t think the U.S. gives a honest fuck about Ukraine per se. If Russia has a free ticket to invade Ukraine that establishes casus belli to invade pretty muc

I don’t think the U.S. gives a honest fuck about Ukraine per se. If Russia has a free ticket to invade Ukraine that establishes casus belli to invade pretty much all other former soviet states. Plus, Russia itself is drumming it up to get US attention. They want NATO to scale down. They want US assets to be outside its “sphere of influence”. They know pretty well that the west doesn’t have any appetite for a war with Russia at the moment. The threat of invasion is a mere bargaining chip to get its demands.

mannerheim 5y ago
> If Russia has a free ticket to invade Ukraine that establishes casus belli to invade pretty much all other former soviet states. What casus belli would that establish?
- rndgermandude 5y ago
  I cannot find a casus belli in that regard, either. While the Ukraine is supported by the West and has some multilateral agreements and contracts with it, it's not part of NATO or the EU, while a lot of the former soviet states are. Russia declaring open war against NATO or EU is not something Putin is stupid/narcissistic enough to do. A lot of the former soviet states outside of the NATO and EU sphere are furthermore already defacto under Russia's thumb, so there is little incentive for Russia to invade, and NATO/EU/US who could invade wouldn't either because they lack the ground to justify this internationally and/or to their own populations and really would have very little gain from it. Aside from recent (partially) failed campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the West in general considering China the bigger threat anyway, all of which would make any politicians think trice about invading former soviet states. If Russia invaded the main Ukraine, things would still get pretty "interesting". It might push the Baltic states and even Poland over the edge, in turn resulting in a NATO and EU casus foederis, and open war against Russia at worst. An invasion of the Ukraine by Russia thus could become a casus belli, just in the other direction.

mannerheim 5y ago

> If Russia has a free ticket to invade Ukraine that establishes casus belli to invade pretty much all other former soviet states. What casus belli would that establish?

rndgermandude 5y ago
I cannot find a casus belli in that regard, either. While the Ukraine is supported by the West and has some multilateral agreements and contracts with it, it's not part of NATO or the EU, while a lot of the former soviet states are. Russia declaring open war against NATO or EU is not something Putin is stupid/narcissistic enough to do. A lot of the former soviet states outside of the NATO and EU sphere are furthermore already defacto under Russia's thumb, so there is little incentive for Russia to invade, and NATO/EU/US who could invade wouldn't either because they lack the ground to justify this internationally and/or to their own populations and really would have very little gain from it. Aside from recent (partially) failed campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the West in general considering China the bigger threat anyway, all of which would make any politicians think trice about invading former soviet states. If Russia invaded the main Ukraine, things would still get pretty "interesting". It might push the Baltic states and even Poland over the edge, in turn resulting in a NATO and EU casus foederis, and open war against Russia at worst. An invasion of the Ukraine by Russia thus could become a casus belli, just in the other direction.