8 ms·

All His Life Has He Looked Away, to the Future...

115 points by danilocampos 15y ago

trebor 15y ago
Strategies like "release early, release often" and "version 0.1" don't work for massive corporations that can afford to finish a product before actively hyping it. I'd respect Microsoft more if they'd actually imitate that facet of Apple.
- kkowalczyk 15y ago
  This is apples (iPad - a hardware device) to oranges (an operating system). Apple is doing exactly the same thing as Microsoft when it comes to os. First beta version of iOS 5 was released 3 months ago at WWDC, Apple's equivalent of Build conference, and is not shipping yet. The same goes for Mac OS X - beta builds are available to developers long before the final retail build. Neither Microsoft nor Apple can just ship their OS without giving developers enough time to test their apps for compatibility and fix inevitable issues. As to why Microsoft doesn't follow Apple's hardware release strategy: it's because Microsoft doesn't do hardware. They don't make PCs. They don't make tablets. They don't make phones. The release strategy for hardware is up to the companies that do make the hardware: Dell, Sony, HP, HTC, Samsung etc.
  - trebor 15y ago
    That is true. Yet I constantly think about the various companies that hype their Windows-powered tablets which never are released. Due to that happening a number of times with HP, and others, I've been expecting Microsoft to one-up the hardware companies and make their own tablet. Just get done with it. Or, stop the idiots from hyping incomplete products. That's why I mixed issues like that together.
absconditus 15y ago
Again, what about it is better?
msg 15y ago
tl; dr: Is Windows 8 vaporware? Meanwhile iPad is surrendering all the way to the bank. I lost a few brain cells on this one.
Steko 15y ago
At least Gruber is rightfully giving props to Microsoft for the very original UI. Every time I see anything Metro based I'm struck at what a breath of fresh air it is in mobile.
- TomOfTTB 15y ago
  I'm not sure I agree with this. I mean, there are two aspects to consider here. The Metro "Theme" which is attractive but I wouldn't call it mind blowing. It basically plays off a trend that had been developing since the web gained prominence which is to ditch the pseudo-3d interfaces for a flatter look. Again, I don't deny its attractive. The Interface Elements - As far as the UI Metro doesn't change much. It basically boils down to Widgets instead of icons. I mean, Android already had desktop widgets. Again not saying what Microsoft is doing is bad (it isn't) but is it really "a breath of fresh air"? The real innovation of Metro in Windows Phone 7 is the wall concept where people can scroll in every direction. But that doesn't seem to be present in Windows 8.
  - doyoulikeworms 15y ago
    I think the reasoning behind the newer Windows phone OSes being a "breath of fresh air" is not so much that they're 100% original (what is?) or mind blowing. It's refreshing because it is, simply put, different. Android and iOS much more closely resemble each other than either resembles any recent Windows phone OS. That's my take, anyway.
    - sambeau 15y ago
      Android much more closely resembles iOS. That's my take, anyway.
      - recoiledsnake 15y ago
        They both resemble this more than anything. http://images.yourdictionary.com/images/computer/_PROGMAN.GIF http://images.yourdictionary.com/images/computer/_PROGMAN.GI... That is why Metro is such a breath of fresh air. If it came from Apple everyone here would be praising Apple for breaking the status quo, being the UI disruptor, etc. etc.
CyberMonk 15y ago
It's the "iPad Killer" syndrome all over again. How many times has the iPad's or iPhone's death (and preceding that, Apple's) been predicted? And how many times has it actually happened? I feel like every journalist who expresses this sentiment is hoping beyond hope that this time, this article, is the one that turns out to be timely and correct. But it's been a stupid bet thus far.
panicslowly 15y ago
The Metro UI is great, but the hardware on the market isn't exactly stellar (compared to iOS/Android offerings). If I were Microsoft, I'd be worried about something similar happening in the tablet market. How are they going to stand out in non-traditional PC markets?
- Lewisham 15y ago
  As Nokia is essentially a Microsoft puppet at this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nokia enter the tablet market.
- barista 15y ago
  You are right. When you buy a phone by the processor speed or the memory it has but if you look at the end product the phone is as impressive as any other out there. Particularly with the new mango update that is rumoured to release soon.
- georgemcbay 15y ago
  Hopefully they are working with ASUS to build something like the Transformer, but running Windows 8 and with an x86 chip. Because that is absolutely 100% what I want. I love my current Asus Transformer -- the convertible notebook/tablet form factor is the perfect system for doing the stuff tablets are good at while also being usable for doing actual writing and content-creation type tasks. The missing piece in the current Transformer is productivity software, like real IDEs. Windows 8 + x86 fixes that. I've been an Android fanboy for the past couple of years, but the promise of really melding mobile with desktop has me super jazzed for Windows 8 and I really hope Microsoft pulls it off.
  - X-Istence 15y ago
    Windows 8 has been ported to ARM, so it doesn't even need to be x86.
    - illumin8 15y ago
      Although I'd be willing to bet you need an x86 processor to run a full blown copy of Visual Studio 2012 or whatever release comes out with Windows 8. It will be interesting to see how much of the first party software runs on ARM tablets. Will we get a full featured Office, or will it be PowerPoint/Word/Excel "lite" or viewers only? Will you need a stylus or will they actually redo the interface to be touch compatible? There is an awful lot of software ecosystem that is completely incompatible with a touch UI. This is probably a bigger engineering task than the original change from 16-bit to 32-bit for Windows 95. I'm not so confident that Microsoft can pull it off in less than 18 months.
Kylekramer 15y ago
"I'm not passing judgment on which strategy is superior. But here is 6 more paragraphs about how Apple's way is superior" I am fascinated how much the same people who rail on about how strange it is when people don't understand the "Apple way" don't understand that there are also other ways. Beyond drama, what real advantage is given by releasing a product as soon as it is announced? For Apple, that secrecy and drama is an advantage. It is what brings the fans back, it is what drums up media attention. But that isn't the Microsoft way. That isn't what sells Microsoft. Microsoft doesn't need to win over consumers to sell a piece of hardware, they need to convince OEMs and enterprise to jump on the latest greatest. And those people need a decent lead time. Being nice to devs and manufacturers and business is what makes Windows. Releasing a product as soon as it was announced would be odd and slightly disconcerting. I'll bet a decent amount that if it were to happen, the blog posts wouldn't be effusive praise, from Gruber or Thurott or whomever. And that is okay. Different strokes.
- bane 15y ago
  You also forgot the preceding six paragraphs of snide comments and bloviated opinion beating.
mycroftiv 15y ago
>What strikes me about Thurrott’s tweet is that the two companies have attracted the writers they deserve. Me? I’d be appalled if Apple were to unveil something in the half- (if that) finished state of Windows 8 for tablets. I enjoy writing about what’s real. I can't believe that Gruber can write such self-satisfied tripe without more self-awareness. His quote is more true than he realizes - the incredible smugness of both Gruber and Apple is very striking. Rabid fanboyishness combined with pretension to some kind of superior aesthetic taste in how product announcements are handled shows that DF is reaching the point of self-parody.
- josephcooney 15y ago
  Yes. I guess I missed the part where all of the attendees at build received a real working windows 8 tablet, running the real windows 8 preview/alpha/beta/whatever-we're-calling-it-these-days bits. Somehow that isn't _real_ in the way apple would do real, and thus not REALLY real.
  - Game_Ender 15y ago
    According to sites like Arstechnica who have got to use the build for a while it has plenty of lock ups and hard crashes. Many features you saw demoed in the keynote are also not ready for release so they are not in the preview build either. The point is, it's far being shippable, and if you can't ship it, it's not "real".
    - CJCorona 15y ago
      that's not any different from when Apple released developer previews of Lion and iOS5. Are we seriously arguing over the 'finished' state of a developer build? Really?
      - ethank 15y ago
        No, what is being discussed is using a developer build of a very alpha-state software as a comparison point against something released that has tens of millions of devices in the market.
tambourine_man 15y ago
A great title for a mediocre article. Had he simply answered Paul's tweet with Yoda's quote, little could be said against it. Instead, he elaborated poorly on obviousness.
0x12 15y ago
This article misses out on one small detail: it is a lot easier to update software than it is to update hardware after you ship it. It was a silly tweet and I think that it may be a little bit too soon to call the race run. For now iPad is solidly in the lead, let's see how it plays out. Who releases what in which way is probably not a factor in the long run.
pavlov 15y ago
"I enjoy writing about what’s real." This is fairly ironic, when just a few paragraphs earlier he was discussing the "as-yet-unannounced iPad 3". Most Apple writers (Gruber included) spend a great deal of time writing about imaginary products. They are in the business of compiling rumors, wish lists, Taiwanese newspaper speculations and divinatory readings of Cupertino teacup leftovers into a coherent whole that could be an Apple product in development. There's nothing "real" about that process, though. Windows 8 has a credible story, a visual identity, a unified API, and it's available for download today. It's clearly a real product for developers, who were the target audience of the Build conference.
varunsrin 15y ago
> "I simply wish to direct your attention at how utterly different the two companies are." >"Me? I’d be appalled if Apple were to unveil something in the half- (if that) finished state of Windows 8 for tablets. I enjoy writing about what’s real" What Gruber claims to understand, but actually doesn't, is that the Microsoft ecosystem is a very different beast than the Apple ecosystem. Microsoft, unlike Apple, does not control the entire vertical stack. They don't really have direct control over hardware or retail distribution (some notable exceptions - Xbox, Microsoft stores etc., but you know what I mean - it's nothing like Apple's top-down approach) There are OEM's, partners, developers that need to get their hands on this technology - to test it, to ensure compatibility with existing platforms. There are IT admins that need to figure out how to start deploying this to their orgs. Windows can't just launch a new OS 'when its done'. Secrecy is a very Apple approach, and it doesn't work for other companies that are reliant on many 3rd parties to complete their ecosystem. Yes, Apple is reliant on devs to write apps, but its not the same as needing hardware partners ot manufacture devices. Not saying that either approach is better, you just need to acknowledge in some cases, secrecy will work against you. Just look at the fallout over the whole Silverlight / HTML5 issue after All Things D There's a reason that Windows initially won the application development battle with Mac OS, its because the company's commitment to backward compat, partners & developers is solid. Windows is built on a legacy of backward compatibility - Joel Spolsky has a fascinating article about this that explains things more eloquently than I can - http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/APIWar.html http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/APIWar.html >"Show me something real, I say. Look at Amazon. Everyone knows they’re building a tablet. What have they said, though? Nothing. What have they shown? Nothing. When will they say something? When it’s done. What will they show? Something real." Amazon can afford to launch a new Kindle tablet in secrecy, because the 3rd party ecosystem is not a main part of the kindle. How many authors need to upgrade their books to support the new Kindle? Zero. Amazon will make sure of that. Content creators & publishers need to do nothing to support the new kindle. Amazon can afford to be secret, and is better off being secretive until it launches. It works for them in this case. [Disclaimer: MSFT employee]
- ethank 15y ago
  Not to defend Gruber here (since for some reason he is unpopular on HN), but I think that he does understand what you claim he doesn't. The point of his polemic is not that Microsoft is fundamentally different than Apple in approach and execution. Anyone can see that plain as day. It's not obfuscated in the least. The question is: which approach is right? Removing for a minute the preconceptions of "that's just how they are," which produces better products? I don't think its cut and dry really. Apple currently has some MS type approaches with iOS because of their third party dependencies on software, and Microsoft has Apple approaches (i.e., XBox) because of their lack of such.
barista 15y ago
Funny how he turned the conversation to whose approach is better. Both Apple and Microsoft have followed their respective approaches for years and I doubt they are going to change it. What is important to me is to realize how quickly microsoft has reacted and how convincing the reply sounds. Compare what they showed today to the vaporware of Vista. Microsoft has come a long way since then and its impressive turnaround for a company that size and that has such legacy baggage.
latch 15y ago
This is a common problem with Microsoft. They announce products well before they are available for purchase and end up disappointing everybody (including themselves). One of the Zunes (maybe ZuneHD? maybe the 1st one), was announced at a specific price and they made it clear this was X dollars cheaper than an iPod. Problem is, it wasn't shipping for another year..guess what Apple did? They are in a hard position though (of their own doing)....they are far behind [the tablet market], so they need to do something. Unfortunately, all they can do is show something that'll be available later on.
ahi 15y ago
Design is about constraints. Throw battery life, processor power, and price out the window and it's easy to produce something incredible.
deleted 15y ago
[deleted]
shriphani 15y ago
Ok this is radically entertaining. This is 2 people commenting on how someone who created something decides to show it to the world and they have made a penis-length measurement contest of it. And these 2 people made a net contribution of 0 to the creations themselves. There should be an "Analyst" flag on posts like this.
recoiledsnake 15y ago
>"I enjoy writing about what’s real." Then why was he writing about iOS 5 from a long time? And I guess the below is a figment of my imagination. http://wdp.dlws.microsoft.com/WDPDL/9B8DFDFF736C5B1DBF956B89D8A9D4FD925DACD2/WindowsDeveloperPreview-64bit-English-Developer.iso http://wdp.dlws.microsoft.com/WDPDL/9B8DFDFF736C5B1DBF956B89...
- dhbanes 15y ago
  Is this a link to just the tablet or does it come with extra batteries & a charger as well?
ihaveaquestion 15y ago
Microsoft = All talk and no cock!
sedev 15y ago
A bit of historical perspective may prove helpful: http://daringfireball.net/linked/2011/04/15/thurrott-claim-chowder http://daringfireball.net/linked/2011/04/15/thurrott-claim-c... Paul Thurott's track record when it comes to making predictions about the iPad is terrible. There's simply no reason to take him seriously, and perhaps we should really be criticizing Gruber for the tech blogging equivalent of being a prominent biologist stooping to debating creationists.
nl 15y ago
The most important thing about Windows 8 is that it is Steven Sinofsky's audition for the Microsoft CEO role. If Windows 8 is a success he has a great chance to replace Ballmer. If (and when) that happens is when people should start paying attention to what Microsoft does again. Sinofsky is no Steve Jobs, but he is one of the few people who are proving able to consistently produce good products at Microsoft. If he ran the company they'd be a force in the industry again.
- cageface 15y ago
  It's pretty incredible in hindsight what a poor steward Ballmer has been for MS. I can't complain because MS seems to have finally loosened its death grip on the industry but if I were a shareholder I'd be pretty upset. That said, I think a resurgent, non-monopolistic MS would be good for the industry as a whole.
saturdaysaint 15y ago
I like Gruber, but this isn't his best piece. He's trying too hard to argue something that's obvious - Windows 8 is coming out in a year or more, so placing it in the competitive landscape probably requires a fairly harsh assessment. If you make a few modest projections about where the iPad and Android will be in a year (both in market/mindshare and in terms of product advancement), Windows 8 will probably be at a hard disadvantage in the consumer space. There's a lot to discuss/praise/criticize about Windows 8 so it's a shame he got into the discussion by rising to flamebait and flailing at something resembling a criticism of MS's strategy.
aufreak3 15y ago
Tired of this kind of speculation. Let the doers do. Microsoft seems to be, for once, trying to make something nice and different from the rest of me-too pads out there. Even if it were to launch two years from now, what if they have something so differentiated from the iPad at that point that it might attract its own following? Is iPad the end of all computing innovation? I'd say Go Microsoft! Give Apple a run for its money if you can!
epo 15y ago
Thurott has been called a Microsoft fanboy, and Gruber has been called an Apple fanboy. If it matters, read and agree with whichever one reinforces your own personal prejudices. For me the Thurott comments are just Microsoft vapourware being cheered on by an MS groupie. I'll believe in the Windows 8 tablet when I see it, and if I ever see it I'll compare it to whatever is available from other suppliers at the time. For now the iPad has no credible competitor. When, if, a Windows 8 tablet comes along I will be astonished if that claim can be made about that product.
TorgoGuy 15y ago
Gruber is no idiot. However, he missed the mark and has his Apple-blinders on here. Apple pre-announces nearly all of its operating systems and give developers access to betas. (Didn't I read Gruber talking about pre-release versions of OSX Lion? How about his recent posts about iOS 5?) The vendors have to provide information ahead of releases so that developers can write applications for them. Thurrott isn't an idiot either. He has long been frustrated by Microsoft's boneheaded mistakes and tweeting his excitement over all the things Microsoft seems to be finally getting right with Windows 8 in a humorous way doesn't equal some kind of prediction. However, he conflated a software-only platform (Windows 8) with an integrated hardware/software platform (iPad/iOS). No doubt decent tablet hardware will arrive for Windows 8, but we'll see how well they'll work together.

115 points by danilocampos 15y ago

Strategies like "release early, release often" and "version 0.1" don't work for massive corporations that can afford to finish a product before actively hyping it. I'd respect Microsoft more if they'd actually imitate that facet of Apple.

kkowalczyk 15y ago
This is apples (iPad - a hardware device) to oranges (an operating system). Apple is doing exactly the same thing as Microsoft when it comes to os. First beta version of iOS 5 was released 3 months ago at WWDC, Apple's equivalent of Build conference, and is not shipping yet. The same goes for Mac OS X - beta builds are available to developers long before the final retail build. Neither Microsoft nor Apple can just ship their OS without giving developers enough time to test their apps for compatibility and fix inevitable issues. As to why Microsoft doesn't follow Apple's hardware release strategy: it's because Microsoft doesn't do hardware. They don't make PCs. They don't make tablets. They don't make phones. The release strategy for hardware is up to the companies that do make the hardware: Dell, Sony, HP, HTC, Samsung etc.
- trebor 15y ago
  That is true. Yet I constantly think about the various companies that hype their Windows-powered tablets which never are released. Due to that happening a number of times with HP, and others, I've been expecting Microsoft to one-up the hardware companies and make their own tablet. Just get done with it. Or, stop the idiots from hyping incomplete products. That's why I mixed issues like that together.

absconditus 15y ago

Again, what about it is better?

msg 15y ago

tl; dr: Is Windows 8 vaporware? Meanwhile iPad is surrendering all the way to the bank. I lost a few brain cells on this one.

Steko 15y ago

At least Gruber is rightfully giving props to Microsoft for the very original UI. Every time I see anything Metro based I'm struck at what a breath of fresh air it is in mobile.

TomOfTTB 15y ago
I'm not sure I agree with this. I mean, there are two aspects to consider here. The Metro "Theme" which is attractive but I wouldn't call it mind blowing. It basically plays off a trend that had been developing since the web gained prominence which is to ditch the pseudo-3d interfaces for a flatter look. Again, I don't deny its attractive. The Interface Elements - As far as the UI Metro doesn't change much. It basically boils down to Widgets instead of icons. I mean, Android already had desktop widgets. Again not saying what Microsoft is doing is bad (it isn't) but is it really "a breath of fresh air"? The real innovation of Metro in Windows Phone 7 is the wall concept where people can scroll in every direction. But that doesn't seem to be present in Windows 8.
- doyoulikeworms 15y ago
  I think the reasoning behind the newer Windows phone OSes being a "breath of fresh air" is not so much that they're 100% original (what is?) or mind blowing. It's refreshing because it is, simply put, different. Android and iOS much more closely resemble each other than either resembles any recent Windows phone OS. That's my take, anyway.
  - sambeau 15y ago
    Android much more closely resembles iOS. That's my take, anyway.
    - recoiledsnake 15y ago
      They both resemble this more than anything. http://images.yourdictionary.com/images/computer/_PROGMAN.GIF http://images.yourdictionary.com/images/computer/_PROGMAN.GI... That is why Metro is such a breath of fresh air. If it came from Apple everyone here would be praising Apple for breaking the status quo, being the UI disruptor, etc. etc.

CyberMonk 15y ago

It's the "iPad Killer" syndrome all over again. How many times has the iPad's or iPhone's death (and preceding that, Apple's) been predicted? And how many times has it actually happened? I feel like every journalist who expresses this sentiment is hoping beyond hope that this time, this article, is the one that turns out to be timely and correct. But it's been a stupid bet thus far.

panicslowly 15y ago

The Metro UI is great, but the hardware on the market isn't exactly stellar (compared to iOS/Android offerings). If I were Microsoft, I'd be worried about something similar happening in the tablet market. How are they going to stand out in non-traditional PC markets?

Lewisham 15y ago
As Nokia is essentially a Microsoft puppet at this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nokia enter the tablet market.
barista 15y ago
You are right. When you buy a phone by the processor speed or the memory it has but if you look at the end product the phone is as impressive as any other out there. Particularly with the new mango update that is rumoured to release soon.
georgemcbay 15y ago
Hopefully they are working with ASUS to build something like the Transformer, but running Windows 8 and with an x86 chip. Because that is absolutely 100% what I want. I love my current Asus Transformer -- the convertible notebook/tablet form factor is the perfect system for doing the stuff tablets are good at while also being usable for doing actual writing and content-creation type tasks. The missing piece in the current Transformer is productivity software, like real IDEs. Windows 8 + x86 fixes that. I've been an Android fanboy for the past couple of years, but the promise of really melding mobile with desktop has me super jazzed for Windows 8 and I really hope Microsoft pulls it off.
- X-Istence 15y ago
  Windows 8 has been ported to ARM, so it doesn't even need to be x86.
  - illumin8 15y ago
    Although I'd be willing to bet you need an x86 processor to run a full blown copy of Visual Studio 2012 or whatever release comes out with Windows 8. It will be interesting to see how much of the first party software runs on ARM tablets. Will we get a full featured Office, or will it be PowerPoint/Word/Excel "lite" or viewers only? Will you need a stylus or will they actually redo the interface to be touch compatible? There is an awful lot of software ecosystem that is completely incompatible with a touch UI. This is probably a bigger engineering task than the original change from 16-bit to 32-bit for Windows 95. I'm not so confident that Microsoft can pull it off in less than 18 months.

Kylekramer 15y ago

"I'm not passing judgment on which strategy is superior. But here is 6 more paragraphs about how Apple's way is superior" I am fascinated how much the same people who rail on about how strange it is when people don't understand the "Apple way" don't understand that there are also other ways. Beyond drama, what real advantage is given by releasing a product as soon as it is announced? For Apple, that secrecy and drama is an advantage. It is what brings the fans back, it is what drums up media attention. But that isn't the Microsoft way. That isn't what sells Microsoft. Microsoft doesn't need to win over consumers to sell a piece of hardware, they need to convince OEMs and enterprise to jump on the latest greatest. And those people need a decent lead time. Being nice to devs and manufacturers and business is what makes Windows. Releasing a product as soon as it was announced would be odd and slightly disconcerting. I'll bet a decent amount that if it were to happen, the blog posts wouldn't be effusive praise, from Gruber or Thurott or whomever. And that is okay. Different strokes.

bane 15y ago
You also forgot the preceding six paragraphs of snide comments and bloviated opinion beating.

mycroftiv 15y ago

>What strikes me about Thurrott’s tweet is that the two companies have attracted the writers they deserve. Me? I’d be appalled if Apple were to unveil something in the half- (if that) finished state of Windows 8 for tablets. I enjoy writing about what’s real. I can't believe that Gruber can write such self-satisfied tripe without more self-awareness. His quote is more true than he realizes - the incredible smugness of both Gruber and Apple is very striking. Rabid fanboyishness combined with pretension to some kind of superior aesthetic taste in how product announcements are handled shows that DF is reaching the point of self-parody.

josephcooney 15y ago
Yes. I guess I missed the part where all of the attendees at build received a real working windows 8 tablet, running the real windows 8 preview/alpha/beta/whatever-we're-calling-it-these-days bits. Somehow that isn't _real_ in the way apple would do real, and thus not REALLY real.
- Game_Ender 15y ago
  According to sites like Arstechnica who have got to use the build for a while it has plenty of lock ups and hard crashes. Many features you saw demoed in the keynote are also not ready for release so they are not in the preview build either. The point is, it's far being shippable, and if you can't ship it, it's not "real".
  - CJCorona 15y ago
    that's not any different from when Apple released developer previews of Lion and iOS5. Are we seriously arguing over the 'finished' state of a developer build? Really?
    - ethank 15y ago
      No, what is being discussed is using a developer build of a very alpha-state software as a comparison point against something released that has tens of millions of devices in the market.

tambourine_man 15y ago

A great title for a mediocre article. Had he simply answered Paul's tweet with Yoda's quote, little could be said against it. Instead, he elaborated poorly on obviousness.

0x12 15y ago

This article misses out on one small detail: it is a lot easier to update software than it is to update hardware after you ship it. It was a silly tweet and I think that it may be a little bit too soon to call the race run. For now iPad is solidly in the lead, let's see how it plays out. Who releases what in which way is probably not a factor in the long run.

pavlov 15y ago

"I enjoy writing about what’s real." This is fairly ironic, when just a few paragraphs earlier he was discussing the "as-yet-unannounced iPad 3". Most Apple writers (Gruber included) spend a great deal of time writing about imaginary products. They are in the business of compiling rumors, wish lists, Taiwanese newspaper speculations and divinatory readings of Cupertino teacup leftovers into a coherent whole that could be an Apple product in development. There's nothing "real" about that process, though. Windows 8 has a credible story, a visual identity, a unified API, and it's available for download today. It's clearly a real product for developers, who were the target audience of the Build conference.

varunsrin 15y ago

> "I simply wish to direct your attention at how utterly different the two companies are." >"Me? I’d be appalled if Apple were to unveil something in the half- (if that) finished state of Windows 8 for tablets. I enjoy writing about what’s real" What Gruber claims to understand, but actually doesn't, is that the Microsoft ecosystem is a very different beast than the Apple ecosystem. Microsoft, unlike Apple, does not control the entire vertical stack. They don't really have direct control over hardware or retail distribution (some notable exceptions - Xbox, Microsoft stores etc., but you know what I mean - it's nothing like Apple's top-down approach) There are OEM's, partners, developers that need to get their hands on this technology - to test it, to ensure compatibility with existing platforms. There are IT admins that need to figure out how to start deploying this to their orgs. Windows can't just launch a new OS 'when its done'. Secrecy is a very Apple approach, and it doesn't work for other companies that are reliant on many 3rd parties to complete their ecosystem. Yes, Apple is reliant on devs to write apps, but its not the same as needing hardware partners ot manufacture devices. Not saying that either approach is better, you just need to acknowledge in some cases, secrecy will work against you. Just look at the fallout over the whole Silverlight / HTML5 issue after All Things D There's a reason that Windows initially won the application development battle with Mac OS, its because the company's commitment to backward compat, partners & developers is solid. Windows is built on a legacy of backward compatibility - Joel Spolsky has a fascinating article about this that explains things more eloquently than I can - http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/APIWar.html http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/APIWar.html >"Show me something real, I say. Look at Amazon. Everyone knows they’re building a tablet. What have they said, though? Nothing. What have they shown? Nothing. When will they say something? When it’s done. What will they show? Something real." Amazon can afford to launch a new Kindle tablet in secrecy, because the 3rd party ecosystem is not a main part of the kindle. How many authors need to upgrade their books to support the new Kindle? Zero. Amazon will make sure of that. Content creators & publishers need to do nothing to support the new kindle. Amazon can afford to be secret, and is better off being secretive until it launches. It works for them in this case. [Disclaimer: MSFT employee]

ethank 15y ago
Not to defend Gruber here (since for some reason he is unpopular on HN), but I think that he does understand what you claim he doesn't. The point of his polemic is not that Microsoft is fundamentally different than Apple in approach and execution. Anyone can see that plain as day. It's not obfuscated in the least. The question is: which approach is right? Removing for a minute the preconceptions of "that's just how they are," which produces better products? I don't think its cut and dry really. Apple currently has some MS type approaches with iOS because of their third party dependencies on software, and Microsoft has Apple approaches (i.e., XBox) because of their lack of such.

barista 15y ago

Funny how he turned the conversation to whose approach is better. Both Apple and Microsoft have followed their respective approaches for years and I doubt they are going to change it. What is important to me is to realize how quickly microsoft has reacted and how convincing the reply sounds. Compare what they showed today to the vaporware of Vista. Microsoft has come a long way since then and its impressive turnaround for a company that size and that has such legacy baggage.

latch 15y ago

This is a common problem with Microsoft. They announce products well before they are available for purchase and end up disappointing everybody (including themselves). One of the Zunes (maybe ZuneHD? maybe the 1st one), was announced at a specific price and they made it clear this was X dollars cheaper than an iPod. Problem is, it wasn't shipping for another year..guess what Apple did? They are in a hard position though (of their own doing)....they are far behind [the tablet market], so they need to do something. Unfortunately, all they can do is show something that'll be available later on.

ahi 15y ago

Design is about constraints. Throw battery life, processor power, and price out the window and it's easy to produce something incredible.

deleted 15y ago

[deleted]

shriphani 15y ago

Ok this is radically entertaining. This is 2 people commenting on how someone who created something decides to show it to the world and they have made a penis-length measurement contest of it. And these 2 people made a net contribution of 0 to the creations themselves. There should be an "Analyst" flag on posts like this.

recoiledsnake 15y ago

>"I enjoy writing about what’s real." Then why was he writing about iOS 5 from a long time? And I guess the below is a figment of my imagination. http://wdp.dlws.microsoft.com/WDPDL/9B8DFDFF736C5B1DBF956B89D8A9D4FD925DACD2/WindowsDeveloperPreview-64bit-English-Developer.iso http://wdp.dlws.microsoft.com/WDPDL/9B8DFDFF736C5B1DBF956B89...

dhbanes 15y ago
Is this a link to just the tablet or does it come with extra batteries & a charger as well?

ihaveaquestion 15y ago

Microsoft = All talk and no cock!

sedev 15y ago

A bit of historical perspective may prove helpful: http://daringfireball.net/linked/2011/04/15/thurrott-claim-chowder http://daringfireball.net/linked/2011/04/15/thurrott-claim-c... Paul Thurott's track record when it comes to making predictions about the iPad is terrible. There's simply no reason to take him seriously, and perhaps we should really be criticizing Gruber for the tech blogging equivalent of being a prominent biologist stooping to debating creationists.

nl 15y ago

The most important thing about Windows 8 is that it is Steven Sinofsky's audition for the Microsoft CEO role. If Windows 8 is a success he has a great chance to replace Ballmer. If (and when) that happens is when people should start paying attention to what Microsoft does again. Sinofsky is no Steve Jobs, but he is one of the few people who are proving able to consistently produce good products at Microsoft. If he ran the company they'd be a force in the industry again.

cageface 15y ago
It's pretty incredible in hindsight what a poor steward Ballmer has been for MS. I can't complain because MS seems to have finally loosened its death grip on the industry but if I were a shareholder I'd be pretty upset. That said, I think a resurgent, non-monopolistic MS would be good for the industry as a whole.

saturdaysaint 15y ago

I like Gruber, but this isn't his best piece. He's trying too hard to argue something that's obvious - Windows 8 is coming out in a year or more, so placing it in the competitive landscape probably requires a fairly harsh assessment. If you make a few modest projections about where the iPad and Android will be in a year (both in market/mindshare and in terms of product advancement), Windows 8 will probably be at a hard disadvantage in the consumer space. There's a lot to discuss/praise/criticize about Windows 8 so it's a shame he got into the discussion by rising to flamebait and flailing at something resembling a criticism of MS's strategy.

aufreak3 15y ago

Tired of this kind of speculation. Let the doers do. Microsoft seems to be, for once, trying to make something nice and different from the rest of me-too pads out there. Even if it were to launch two years from now, what if they have something so differentiated from the iPad at that point that it might attract its own following? Is iPad the end of all computing innovation? I'd say Go Microsoft! Give Apple a run for its money if you can!

epo 15y ago

Thurott has been called a Microsoft fanboy, and Gruber has been called an Apple fanboy. If it matters, read and agree with whichever one reinforces your own personal prejudices. For me the Thurott comments are just Microsoft vapourware being cheered on by an MS groupie. I'll believe in the Windows 8 tablet when I see it, and if I ever see it I'll compare it to whatever is available from other suppliers at the time. For now the iPad has no credible competitor. When, if, a Windows 8 tablet comes along I will be astonished if that claim can be made about that product.

TorgoGuy 15y ago

Gruber is no idiot. However, he missed the mark and has his Apple-blinders on here. Apple pre-announces nearly all of its operating systems and give developers access to betas. (Didn't I read Gruber talking about pre-release versions of OSX Lion? How about his recent posts about iOS 5?) The vendors have to provide information ahead of releases so that developers can write applications for them. Thurrott isn't an idiot either. He has long been frustrated by Microsoft's boneheaded mistakes and tweeting his excitement over all the things Microsoft seems to be finally getting right with Windows 8 in a humorous way doesn't equal some kind of prediction. However, he conflated a software-only platform (Windows 8) with an integrated hardware/software platform (iPad/iOS). No doubt decent tablet hardware will arrive for Windows 8, but we'll see how well they'll work together.