You can create a complex system to make predictions about complex systems. But without underlying theory, you can’t put bounds on its accuracy or utility. Such

You can create a complex system to make predictions about complex systems. But without underlying theory, you can’t put bounds on its accuracy or utility. Such a system will work right up until it doesn’t, with no way to predict in advance where that point is. We see this with people all the time. Jane thinks she knows how Joe will react to X but Joe does something unexpected. A system that makes accurate predictions an unpredictable percentage of the time is not that useful. But it might be great for fooling ourselves or others.