3 ms·
The most optimistic take I can give is that even if you fixed all of the jerkiness and all-around mistakes in the driving situations the author points out, you'
by ChicagoBoy11 5y ago
The most optimistic take I can give is that even if you fixed all of the jerkiness and all-around mistakes in the driving situations the author points out, you're still left with the problem of being unable to reasonably guarantee what the car is going to do next. And so you either just trust the system implicitly, or... what?
So much of training in dealing automation (achieved in a far different way) in airplanes, for instance, is about knowing you can reason effectively about what the automation is doing and why it is doing it, and knowing how to recover in case something happens that you don't like. Further, the use of those technologies hinges on this very important concept of making sure that at all times you can stay ahead of the automation, and when you can't, it simply isn't a scenario where it is to be trusted.
That's been the case for many, many decades in aviation and overall the results are very, very good. Yes, from the automation side the problem it is tackling is much simpler, but I think the easiest part of it is that the need to have the system take split-second decisions is REALLY, REALLY small. That's just not a thing that happens when you are flying. You can trust the automation, and have it be an ally, because the possibility that at any given time it'll decide to cause a plane-crashing maneuver is simply not a possibility.
I don't see how that's so easy to avoid in the car scenario. The multiple drivers in the intersections, pedestrians, etc., cause you to CONSTANTLY deviate from your planned course of action in a moment's notice. Anyone who has driven for any stretch of time has had their ability to quickly change course called upon very, very frequently. We seem to be focused on how we can get cars to do the same, but I sincerely wonder if whether or not that would be sufficient. Even if your car could drive brilliantly, but you knew that at any given time it could not, could you really relax and trust it? One could say its not different than being driven BY SOMEONE else, which is a fair point, but in that case I can very effectively reason about the driver making those decisions for me (i.e. I have folks I think are unsafe drivers so don't get in their car, etc.). But what about for machines? I do think that communicating to drivers the safety of what the car is doing will prove to be the ultimate challenge, beyond navigating tricky road conditions.
- petermcneeley 5y agoNot to steer too far from your points but one of the things I have noticed is that these self driving system are not failing at being good AIs but are failing at the level of basic modeling of their physical environment. Lots of examples of this (not specific to tesla) including cars not being able to tell there is something on the road in front of them, cars mistaking headlight reflects for road lines. It is this behavior that is the main cause for concern.
- jmole 5y agothat's exactly the problem - when the model and the scene doesn't reflect reality, the whole thing breaks down. Perception and modeling is everything, policy is nearly trivial in comparison, until you get to L4+
- kaba0 5y agoThis would be the human equivalent of DUI, which doesn’t give much reason for optimism.
- HWR_14 5y agoI mean, self-driving seems trivial if you have a good model of the physical environment. Look at how well cars in video games self-drive. That's why I always assumed it was perception and otherwise physical modelling that was the main issue.