5 ms·

My professor made fun of this article in yesterday's lecture. Nice to see it discussed here, too. The article does make a few solid points, but the conclusion

by luplex 5y ago

My professor made fun of this article in yesterday's lecture. Nice to see it discussed here, too. The article does make a few solid points, but the conclusion isn't supported. Even automated Deep Learning based science draws from theories. The data, the underlying statistics, the model, and how we interpret the results are all theory-driven. We are not entering a new, objective era of science. We are merely chosing to ignore the theory and hiding behind a curtain of statistics.

ya_throw 5y ago
>hiding behind a curtain of statistics. If there's one thing that Covid has taught us, it's that The Modelling is a vengeful God who must be appeased with many sacrifices.
- SantalBlush 5y ago
  This is a histrionic way of saying you've been inconvenienced.
  - ya_throw 5y ago
    That is a very understated way to describe one of the single biggest upheavals in life and culture in the history of Western civilisation. FWIW, a significant part of the "inconvenience" as a parent of two very young kids comes from my refusal to accept that putting kids in front of screens for extended and frequent sessions is an acceptable compromise when balancing the pressures of life under Covid restrictions. Apparently, most people have decided this is ok, along with other horrors like enforcing isolation requirements on young children.
    - SantalBlush 5y ago
      >That is a very understated way to describe one of the single biggest upheavals in life and culture in the history of Western civilisation. Placing all of this at the feet of "The Modelling", and none of it at the feet of the virus itself from what I've read so far, is so ridiculous that it doesn't even warrant a discussion, sorry.
      - ya_throw 5y ago
        I don't know about things where you live, but where I am (UK, and more specifically Wales, where we have taken restrictions to an absurd degree), most major Covid restrictions have been justified as a necessary response to modelled data. The OP, and indeed the article linked, is on the topic of modelling and statistics, so that is the subject of discussion.
    - gwd 5y ago
      > That is a very understated way to describe one of the single biggest upheavals in life and culture in the history of Western civilisation. Come now. Black Death? The Depression? Two World Wars? And your main complaint is that your kids are having too much screen time? I mean, don't get me wrong: in-person interaction is critical, and having it replaced by screen time is certainly detrimental. But not nearly as detrimental as having to sleep in bomb shelters every night, or killing 50% of the population.
      - ya_throw 5y ago
        You've made my point - the overall outcome post-Covid is comparable to a handful of other singular events in our history. I strongly believe that the ramifications of what we have done will take years to play out, but I accept that is just my opinion. My kids are not having too much screen time. My complaint is that Covid restrictions have made the already-tough job of being an accountable, responsible parent almost impossible. Screen time is just the tip of the iceberg. You talk about sleeping in bomb shelters - how many kids have been told they now carry a disease that could kill if they get too close to someone, and what will that do to their mental and social development? How many parents now believe this justifies what would previously be called child abuse? Many of the ones I know, that's for sure. At one time, it was considered brave to hug a HIV-positive person (and when the risks were unknown). Now, we selfishly impose social restrictions on those closest to us, to reduce an already-tiny level of personal risk.
        gwd 5y ago
        In my editing I deleted the phrases "doesn't even register in comparison" and "I could go on". "Western Civilization" is littered with plagues and pandemics, wars, revolutions, and economic shocks which had far larger impact on people than COVID has. You're comparing having buildings in your town blown up, your friends and relatives and parents killed, your father sent across the ocean to be shot at, to be told to social distance. Your comment reeks of entitlement and privilege.
        ya_throw 5y ago
LudwigNagasena 5y ago
Statistics are meaningless without models behind them.
soco 5y ago
And with "we" it's meant the citizen armchair scientist with degrees in google searching and social groupthink.
weego 5y ago
I was involved in building an automated drug research lab a few years ago. Part of that was having in-silico simulation of chemical structures. Obviously there was quite a bit of "oh that means we can rapidly return results to customers without incurring the overhead of actually running the tests right? Great for our bottom line" The answer was obviously no, at some point we still need to run actual tests. Without that we just have a proposition of what might happen. And the longer we leave running actual tests to feed back into the models the more "out of sync" with reality we risk becoming. I think thats key to where this article just misses the real world situation. We're heading towards an environment where we can rapidly make propositions of outcomes for a hypothesis based on what we already know to help remove low % avenues and focus in on opportunities. Hypothesise and test still need to happen, but hopefully the predict phase will mean researchers hit dead-ends less often and earlier and can move to other avenues quicker and with fewer resources wasted.
PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
Statistics are not theories. Some forms of NN do not require models. And the whole point of the article is the contradiction of the claim "how we interpret the results are all theory-driven." > We are not entering a new, objective era of science. TFA does not contain the word "objective". That is not the claim at all.

by luplex 5y ago

ya_throw 5y ago

>hiding behind a curtain of statistics. If there's one thing that Covid has taught us, it's that The Modelling is a vengeful God who must be appeased with many sacrifices.

SantalBlush 5y ago
This is a histrionic way of saying you've been inconvenienced.
- ya_throw 5y ago
  That is a very understated way to describe one of the single biggest upheavals in life and culture in the history of Western civilisation. FWIW, a significant part of the "inconvenience" as a parent of two very young kids comes from my refusal to accept that putting kids in front of screens for extended and frequent sessions is an acceptable compromise when balancing the pressures of life under Covid restrictions. Apparently, most people have decided this is ok, along with other horrors like enforcing isolation requirements on young children.
  - SantalBlush 5y ago
    >That is a very understated way to describe one of the single biggest upheavals in life and culture in the history of Western civilisation. Placing all of this at the feet of "The Modelling", and none of it at the feet of the virus itself from what I've read so far, is so ridiculous that it doesn't even warrant a discussion, sorry.
    - ya_throw 5y ago
      I don't know about things where you live, but where I am (UK, and more specifically Wales, where we have taken restrictions to an absurd degree), most major Covid restrictions have been justified as a necessary response to modelled data. The OP, and indeed the article linked, is on the topic of modelling and statistics, so that is the subject of discussion.
  - gwd 5y ago
    > That is a very understated way to describe one of the single biggest upheavals in life and culture in the history of Western civilisation. Come now. Black Death? The Depression? Two World Wars? And your main complaint is that your kids are having too much screen time? I mean, don't get me wrong: in-person interaction is critical, and having it replaced by screen time is certainly detrimental. But not nearly as detrimental as having to sleep in bomb shelters every night, or killing 50% of the population.
    - ya_throw 5y ago
      You've made my point - the overall outcome post-Covid is comparable to a handful of other singular events in our history. I strongly believe that the ramifications of what we have done will take years to play out, but I accept that is just my opinion. My kids are not having too much screen time. My complaint is that Covid restrictions have made the already-tough job of being an accountable, responsible parent almost impossible. Screen time is just the tip of the iceberg. You talk about sleeping in bomb shelters - how many kids have been told they now carry a disease that could kill if they get too close to someone, and what will that do to their mental and social development? How many parents now believe this justifies what would previously be called child abuse? Many of the ones I know, that's for sure. At one time, it was considered brave to hug a HIV-positive person (and when the risks were unknown). Now, we selfishly impose social restrictions on those closest to us, to reduce an already-tiny level of personal risk.
      - gwd 5y ago
        In my editing I deleted the phrases "doesn't even register in comparison" and "I could go on". "Western Civilization" is littered with plagues and pandemics, wars, revolutions, and economic shocks which had far larger impact on people than COVID has. You're comparing having buildings in your town blown up, your friends and relatives and parents killed, your father sent across the ocean to be shot at, to be told to social distance. Your comment reeks of entitlement and privilege.
        ya_throw 5y ago

LudwigNagasena 5y ago

Statistics are meaningless without models behind them.

soco 5y ago

And with "we" it's meant the citizen armchair scientist with degrees in google searching and social groupthink.

weego 5y ago

I was involved in building an automated drug research lab a few years ago. Part of that was having in-silico simulation of chemical structures. Obviously there was quite a bit of "oh that means we can rapidly return results to customers without incurring the overhead of actually running the tests right? Great for our bottom line" The answer was obviously no, at some point we still need to run actual tests. Without that we just have a proposition of what might happen. And the longer we leave running actual tests to feed back into the models the more "out of sync" with reality we risk becoming. I think thats key to where this article just misses the real world situation. We're heading towards an environment where we can rapidly make propositions of outcomes for a hypothesis based on what we already know to help remove low % avenues and focus in on opportunities. Hypothesise and test still need to happen, but hopefully the predict phase will mean researchers hit dead-ends less often and earlier and can move to other avenues quicker and with fewer resources wasted.

PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago

Statistics are not theories. Some forms of NN do not require models. And the whole point of the article is the contradiction of the claim "how we interpret the results are all theory-driven." > We are not entering a new, objective era of science. TFA does not contain the word "objective". That is not the claim at all.