There are also many other possible outcomes. Even if it's less likely that the manager would side with OP, it doesn't mean "approaches 0", as you stated previo

There are also many other possible outcomes. Even if it's less likely that the manager would side with OP, it doesn't mean "approaches 0", as you stated previously. Additionally, even if the manager doesn't address it, it could end up being a positive. Instead of "which is more likely", what really matters is the value of the outcome. I'm the kind of person that I would rather know whether my manager cares at all, so even the worst case outcome (getting fired) would be beneficial because I don't want to work with a group of people who can't rely on each other.