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Highly recommend "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" by John Mearsheimer. For Russia, annexing (all or part of) Ukraine now is too good a deal to pass. Russi
by credit_guy 5y ago
Highly recommend "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" by John Mearsheimer.
For Russia, annexing (all or part of) Ukraine now is too good a deal to pass. Russia knows that invading with an overwhelming force will result in a virtually bloodless annexation, just like the Taliban took over Afghanistan in a matter of weeks, and just like they themselves took over Crimea. Ukraine claims they'll fight to the last drop of blood, but theory and practice are a bit disconnected when you are a garrison in a city that's being approached by a few tens of thousands of soldiers and a few thousand tanks. Thinks looks different still if 50 other cities surrendered without a fight by the time it's your turn.
Russia is a country in the middle of a population collapse. They are less than 145 MM now, projected to get to 125 MM by 2050. Their great power aspirations dwindle by the day. But adding Ukraine, Belarus, Khazakstan and Uzbekistan brings an immediate boost of more than 100 MM. Every night Putin puts his head on the pillow, these things swirl in his head, "one hundred million more Russians", "Mother Russia great again", "they disrespect us now, we'll show them who's the boss", "enough is enough", etc, etc.
- rasz 5y ago>Ukraine claims they'll fight to the last drop of blood, but theory and practice are a bit disconnected when you are a garrison in a city that's being approached by a few tens of thousands of soldiers and a few thousand tanks. Thinks looks different still if 50 other cities surrendered without a fight by the time it's your turn. You have to be really insane. Poles did it at the start of WW2 resisting for a month https://origins.osu.edu/milestones/september-2014-nazis-take-poland-and-start-world-war-ii https://origins.osu.edu/milestones/september-2014-nazis-take... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/14/books/review/poland-1939-roger-moorhouse.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/14/books/review/poland-1939-... and again in 1944 for over two months https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Uprising https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Uprising Twice with no direct outside help. So much for international security guarantees. Btw Ukraine also had a toilet paper full of UK/US promises https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit... how much good did that accomplish?
- credit_guy 5y agoI'm not sure if you're agreeing with me or not. I think you are, but I simply can't say for sure.
- rasz 5y agoMe neither. If they resist like Poles did they will die like Poles. Either in Ukraine, or in Russian concentration camps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre No one will help, not UN, not NATO, and especially not US.
- credit_guy 5y agoThe Poles were attacked from both sides by Germany and Russia. They had treaties with the UK and France, and France had a large land army and they could have attacked Germany with a legitimate casus beli. The UK had very little capability to actually defend Poland. Once France did not attack Germany, there was indeed not much that Poland could do. The situation is a bit different now. The US can't help with boots on the ground, or with any type of "kinetic response", but it can help Ukraine with intelligence, and maybe a bit of deniable cyber warfare. The US has all the incentives to help Ukraine. Not to the extend of putting soldiers in harm's way, but the US doesn't like Russia becoming 30% larger in terms of population (and therefore military manpower). Moreover, if Ukraine falls, Belarus and Kazakhstan will "voluntarily join the union" in no time. That's not something the US is keen to see happening on the global security chessboard. But still, Putin knows all these things, and he likes his chances. We can only watch and see a grandmaster at play.