5 ms·
Biostatisticians Calculated Odds of CV Evolving Naturally to Be 1 in 13B
- _Wintermute 5y agoWhich biostatisticians, and can we see this work they did? Of course not, this is just some nonsense comment by a politician with no scientific training.
- nameless912 5y agoAnd also, 1 in 13 billion might even be right, but when something happens billions of times a day (i.e. a virus replicating), a statistical unlikelihood becomes a certainty. This is such bad analysis of statistics.
- Maursault 5y agoStatistics are funny. The odds of being hit by a piece of space junk has been calculated to 1 in 21 trillion. And yet [1]. The more adamant someone is about lab origins of SARS-Cov-2, in absence of all evidence, while at the same time calling it "sort of ridiculous" to believe that virus passed naturally from animals from humans (like every other virus ever), the less credibility they have and which is not in the remotest sense increased by being featured in the New York Post. [1] https://www.wired.com/2009/01/jan-22-1997-heads-up-lottie-its-space-junk/ https://www.wired.com/2009/01/jan-22-1997-heads-up-lottie-it...
- alsaaro 5y agoThe biostatistician (singular, because it is singular in the article) originally calculated the odds of the coronavirus evolving naturally to be 1 and 13 million, then, perhaps based on new information, recalculated it to be 1 and 13 billion. He was off, exactly, by a factor of 1000 between his calculations.
- ncmncm 5y ago"...some supernatural source". Satan!
- MrGuts 5y agoI for one totally trust the New York Post to reliably report biomedical news.
- hogrider 5y agoThey knew of the emergent coronavirus threat from the same gain of function chimeras research they accuse started all this. Just google coronavirus and filter from before 2017.
- vannevar 5y agoThe odds of any specific virus evolving naturally are staggeringly small, looking backward, since each one is a combination of thousands of nucleotides. So what? The same argument was made in favor of divine creation.