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> Average College grads make more money over their lifetime, period. Stop this. The most accurate predictor of a person's lifetime income is the income of thei

> Average College grads make more money over their lifetime, period. Stop this. The most accurate predictor of a person's lifetime income is the income of their parents. Children of wealthy parents are more likely to go to college. It's like saying "People who drive expensive cars in high school make more money over their lifetime, period". I question the statistical literacy of people who make the argument that going to college has a significant causal impact on future earnings.

endisneigh 5y ago
I didn’t say there’s a causal impact, I said that average college grads make more money.
- hooande 5y ago
  The kid that's driving a new BMW at age 16 will make more money than everyone else too. Do you suggest that kids buy BMWs in order to increase their lifetime earning potential?
  - endisneigh 5y ago
    I don’t see the relevance - even among the poorest college grads have higher lifetime earnings: https://research.upjohn.org/empl_research/vol23/iss3/1/ https://research.upjohn.org/empl_research/vol23/iss3/1/ again, college grads make more money across all demographic groups. Not sure what you’re arguing
    - mlyle 5y ago
      Yes, but is this causal? Is it the college education itself that explains all of the earnings difference? Or is it that the most adept of each income block are more likely to complete college education, and some of the later income difference is because of intrinsic ability rather than the benefits and signaling advantages of a college degree?
lapsedacademic 5y ago
> Stop this.... I question the statistical literacy... Ugh. Why? You asked for a statistically grounded conversation, so let's do that. Let's start, for example, with pdf page 25 (and surrounding context) of https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/causal_educ_earnings.pdf https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/causal_educ_earnings.p... The analysis done in that paper is a good starting point for a productive conversation. We could discuss the bounds on various coefficients and decide whether the conditional statements about those coefficients made in the paper have clear answers in either direction. Or we could critique the various modeling assumptions. Etc.
- hooande 5y ago
  Section 3.6. "Family background" of the pdf you linked to discusses the impact that parent's educational attainment has on how much money someone earns as a result of going to college, not whether they attend college. It's not used as a control in a way that's relevant to this discussion. Do you have another study? Either way, it's a fact that parental income is the best predictor of future income. Not educational attainment.
  - lapsedacademic 5y ago
    > best predictor But why? What are the CAUSAL relationships between parental earnings, educational attainment, and child earnings? The children of doctors are more likely to become doctors, but saying that educational attainment is therefore less related to doctoring than parental occupation is obviously a bit absurd. Just because a parent paves the path doesn't mean that educational attainment is irrelevant to walking that path. And anyone who makes it through med school and residency has the option to enjoy high earnings, regardless of parental income. The MD example, for the curious and humble reader interested in Truth rather than Winning, makes it abundantly clear why section 3.6 of the linked paper asks a question that's directly relevant to untangling these causal links. > Do you have another study? There's an entire literature base on exactly this question. "lifetime earnings parental earnings education" returns 130K results on Google Scholar. But, to be blunt, I don't think you're interested in learning anything. I think you're interested in Winning the thread. So I'm not posting for your benefit; that would be futile. I'm posting for the benefit of intellectually curious readers.

endisneigh 5y ago

I didn’t say there’s a causal impact, I said that average college grads make more money.

hooande 5y ago
The kid that's driving a new BMW at age 16 will make more money than everyone else too. Do you suggest that kids buy BMWs in order to increase their lifetime earning potential?
- endisneigh 5y ago
  I don’t see the relevance - even among the poorest college grads have higher lifetime earnings: https://research.upjohn.org/empl_research/vol23/iss3/1/ https://research.upjohn.org/empl_research/vol23/iss3/1/ again, college grads make more money across all demographic groups. Not sure what you’re arguing
  - mlyle 5y ago
    Yes, but is this causal? Is it the college education itself that explains all of the earnings difference? Or is it that the most adept of each income block are more likely to complete college education, and some of the later income difference is because of intrinsic ability rather than the benefits and signaling advantages of a college degree?

lapsedacademic 5y ago

> Stop this.... I question the statistical literacy... Ugh. Why? You asked for a statistically grounded conversation, so let's do that. Let's start, for example, with pdf page 25 (and surrounding context) of https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/causal_educ_earnings.pdf https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/causal_educ_earnings.p... The analysis done in that paper is a good starting point for a productive conversation. We could discuss the bounds on various coefficients and decide whether the conditional statements about those coefficients made in the paper have clear answers in either direction. Or we could critique the various modeling assumptions. Etc.

hooande 5y ago
Section 3.6. "Family background" of the pdf you linked to discusses the impact that parent's educational attainment has on how much money someone earns as a result of going to college, not whether they attend college. It's not used as a control in a way that's relevant to this discussion. Do you have another study? Either way, it's a fact that parental income is the best predictor of future income. Not educational attainment.
- lapsedacademic 5y ago
  > best predictor But why? What are the CAUSAL relationships between parental earnings, educational attainment, and child earnings? The children of doctors are more likely to become doctors, but saying that educational attainment is therefore less related to doctoring than parental occupation is obviously a bit absurd. Just because a parent paves the path doesn't mean that educational attainment is irrelevant to walking that path. And anyone who makes it through med school and residency has the option to enjoy high earnings, regardless of parental income. The MD example, for the curious and humble reader interested in Truth rather than Winning, makes it abundantly clear why section 3.6 of the linked paper asks a question that's directly relevant to untangling these causal links. > Do you have another study? There's an entire literature base on exactly this question. "lifetime earnings parental earnings education" returns 130K results on Google Scholar. But, to be blunt, I don't think you're interested in learning anything. I think you're interested in Winning the thread. So I'm not posting for your benefit; that would be futile. I'm posting for the benefit of intellectually curious readers.