2 ms·

"Why now?" is also a question I was wondering about. But also, "What's the goal?". They obviously can't occupy the whole country (Ukraine is large and populous

"Why now?" is also a question I was wondering about. But also, "What's the goal?". They obviously can't occupy the whole country (Ukraine is large and populous, that would be way too expensive). Do they want the eastern part (with a big Russian minority), land bridge to Crimea, or just extend Donbas/Luhansk or just reheat the conflict, destabilize the Ukraine? It has to be something worthy. Ukrainian army is in a much better state than in 2014 and a full scale invasion could become very expensive and politically risky. Or maybe it really is just sabre rattling and Putin wants something completely different (lifting of existing sanctions, NS2 completion...).

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> "What's the goal?" Reinstate a pliant dictator, like the one who was removed in 2014 [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych
- The_Colonel 5y ago
  This wouldn't work without military occupation, since such dictator wouldn't have support of Ukrainian military/population.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > This wouldn't work without military occupation, since such dictator wouldn't have support of Ukrainian military/population Not necessarily a permanent presence. Belarus and Kazakhstan's rulers aren't popular and don't require permanent support. Parachuting in soldiers lets Moscow amplify its strength. (America does this too.)
    - The_Colonel 5y ago
      Belarus and Kazakhstan dictators have support of local military. Ukrainian military these days is pretty built up and indoctrinated. It's not doing 180-degree turn-around just like that. Russia won't be able to control the situation remotely with just a threat of a parachute operation.
weare138 5y ago
I'm wondering if Putin is becoming paranoid of a possibly military coup and this is a way to keep the Russian military away from Moscow or some other related internal crisis. I'm honestly surprised that hasn't happened yet.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

> "What's the goal?" Reinstate a pliant dictator, like the one who was removed in 2014 [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych

The_Colonel 5y ago
This wouldn't work without military occupation, since such dictator wouldn't have support of Ukrainian military/population.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > This wouldn't work without military occupation, since such dictator wouldn't have support of Ukrainian military/population Not necessarily a permanent presence. Belarus and Kazakhstan's rulers aren't popular and don't require permanent support. Parachuting in soldiers lets Moscow amplify its strength. (America does this too.)
  - The_Colonel 5y ago
    Belarus and Kazakhstan dictators have support of local military. Ukrainian military these days is pretty built up and indoctrinated. It's not doing 180-degree turn-around just like that. Russia won't be able to control the situation remotely with just a threat of a parachute operation.

weare138 5y ago

I'm wondering if Putin is becoming paranoid of a possibly military coup and this is a way to keep the Russian military away from Moscow or some other related internal crisis. I'm honestly surprised that hasn't happened yet.