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> Once the pandemic is over Pandemic is not really going to be "over". The hope that it would just become endemic is fizzling out. We'll certainly continue liv

> Once the pandemic is over Pandemic is not really going to be "over". The hope that it would just become endemic is fizzling out. We'll certainly continue living life, but it will never go back to the way it was. My money is that Omicron will bring record deaths that we'll start seeing a few weeks. People will realize wishful thinking doesn't do much to fight pandemics. Most people will think Omicron will make them immune forever, and we'll get new variants periodically, sometimes they'll be short and mild sometimes they'll be awful. People will start realizing that it's waiting for an end that's exhausting, and getting on with life, even if that means things are never quite the same, is preferable. "Back to office" will increasingly seem like a liability. Employees are already getting sick of the perpetually moving "back to office" dates. After 3 years of perpetually moving back these dates more and more companies will realize it's much healthier and more productive to just move forward as things are. > In-office is much more efficient and it will be immediately evident once it is enforced. People may hate remote work during the pandemic, but I have seen very few people find that their teams are any less productive and plenty that have found them more productive. I've worked for successful remote teams for years prior to pandemic. The only issue in the past that remote startups really had was that VCs didn't like the look of not having an office in SF.

_fat_santa 5y ago
> My money is that Omicron will bring record deaths that we'll start seeing a few weeks. I really hope you are wrong in this prediction. > but I have seen very few people find that their teams are any less productive and plenty that have found them more productive I've seen the same. You hear about isolated instances of teams being less productive but like you said, most folks I've talked to said their team has become more productive with remote work. IMO remote work is here to stay and is the future and I think it all boils down to not having to be co-located with your co-workers. Once management and HR figure out that this lets them have a 10x larger talent pool, they will get onboard (if they haven't already)
- it_does_follow 5y ago
  > I really hope you are wrong in this prediction. For the record I also hope that I am wrong on this. I very much believe that we really don't know at this point (unfortunately rising hospitalization data, and uptick in deaths has me concerned). The trouble is the media chanting of "it's mild!" has meant people have basically ignored Omicron when we didn't have enough information to say "it's fine!" being mild and highly contagious can easily mean more deaths, and we haven't had enough data to say where the balance lies.
drstewart 5y ago
>My money is that Omicron will bring record deaths that we'll start seeing a few weeks. Are people still trotting out the "just wait 2 more weeks!" shtick? Anywhere I can go to make this bet with you? Willing to put down $100 that there aren't record deaths in the US in the next 3 weeks.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- it_does_follow 5y ago
  Checking 1 week later: We've seen record hospitalization for the pandemic (which today looks like it may be peaking): https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admis... The record daily death so far is 2,997 which surpasses all waves with the exception of last winter's which was the largest on record so far: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths You still have a reasonably good chance of being correct but I think at the very least you should reconsider writing off the risks as "shtick". The number to beat for daily deaths is 4,069. Either way right now we have the 2nd worst wave of the pandemic as far as deaths go, which is very far from the "mild" claims that were aggressively circulating a few weeks ago. I'll check back in two more weeks.

_fat_santa 5y ago

> My money is that Omicron will bring record deaths that we'll start seeing a few weeks. I really hope you are wrong in this prediction. > but I have seen very few people find that their teams are any less productive and plenty that have found them more productive I've seen the same. You hear about isolated instances of teams being less productive but like you said, most folks I've talked to said their team has become more productive with remote work. IMO remote work is here to stay and is the future and I think it all boils down to not having to be co-located with your co-workers. Once management and HR figure out that this lets them have a 10x larger talent pool, they will get onboard (if they haven't already)

it_does_follow 5y ago
> I really hope you are wrong in this prediction. For the record I also hope that I am wrong on this. I very much believe that we really don't know at this point (unfortunately rising hospitalization data, and uptick in deaths has me concerned). The trouble is the media chanting of "it's mild!" has meant people have basically ignored Omicron when we didn't have enough information to say "it's fine!" being mild and highly contagious can easily mean more deaths, and we haven't had enough data to say where the balance lies.

drstewart 5y ago

>My money is that Omicron will bring record deaths that we'll start seeing a few weeks. Are people still trotting out the "just wait 2 more weeks!" shtick? Anywhere I can go to make this bet with you? Willing to put down $100 that there aren't record deaths in the US in the next 3 weeks.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
it_does_follow 5y ago
Checking 1 week later: We've seen record hospitalization for the pandemic (which today looks like it may be peaking): https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admis... The record daily death so far is 2,997 which surpasses all waves with the exception of last winter's which was the largest on record so far: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths You still have a reasonably good chance of being correct but I think at the very least you should reconsider writing off the risks as "shtick". The number to beat for daily deaths is 4,069. Either way right now we have the 2nd worst wave of the pandemic as far as deaths go, which is very far from the "mild" claims that were aggressively circulating a few weeks ago. I'll check back in two more weeks.